Abstract
In June and July 2020, the Plum Rain region around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced historically sustained heavy rainfall. During this period, the western section of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) continued to extend westward and remained in southern China, providing a strong and stabilized moisture channel for Plum Rain. A distinct feature is that the northern boundary of the WPSH is basically consistent with the rain belt over the Yangtze River. Based on the three-pattern decomposition of the global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC) model, the source of the anomalous subsidence movement that sustained the western section of the WPSH is traced. The quantitative results show that meridional movement provides an absolute dominant positive contribution, while zonal movement plays only a weak negative role. At 115° E–140° E, the anomalous ascending movement over the Maritime Continent enhanced the meridional circulation, while the cold air activity in the middle latitudes blocked the subsidence branch, resulting in a stabilized WPSH from June to July and favorable conditions for the Plum Rain in 2020. Such a tripolar structure is consistent with the EOF1 of local meridional circulation within 115° E–140° E and 40° N–10° S. Generally, the significant warming of the Maritime Continent after a strong El Niño event, such as in 1998, could result in the enhancement of the meridional temperature gradient and could strengthen the local ascending movement on the Maritime Continent. However, the analysis of the tropospheric temperature transmission and sea temperature evolution shows that the Maritime Continent warming in 2020 is more attributable to the warming of the tropical Indo–Pacific Basin, which contains an obvious interdecadal trend. This contributed to the Plum Rain and the western extension of the WPSH in 2020, which were similar to those after a strong El Niño and even more persistent.
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This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China with Grant no. 42130610, no. 41975088, no. 41875101, no. 42005012 and no. 41805060; the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province with Grant No. BK20201058.
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Zhao, Y., Cheng, J., Feng, G. et al. Analysis of the atmospheric direct dynamic source for the westerly extended WPSH and record-breaking Plum Rain in 2020. Clim Dyn 59, 1233–1251 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06186-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06186-4