Abstract
Enhanced predictability of high-impact weather events is a Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) priority. In early summer 2020, a record-breaking heavy rainfall event occurred over the Yangtze River valley during the mei-yu season (June and July). Here we evaluate the S2S model forecast performance concerning the summer 2020 extreme mei-yu event over the Yangtze River valley. Our results show all operational S2S models exhibit fluctuating high-low–high forecast skill patterns during this three-stage mei-yu event, determined by different dominant circulations. In particular, the poor mid-latitude circulation forecast (low trough over northern China) in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative phase, with relative more contribution than that of the low-latitude circulation (western North Pacific subtropical high and South Asian high), decreases the model forecast skill for mei-yu rainfall in early-mid July. The prediction barrier of the NAO pattern and its downstream response, via the eastward-propagating wave train, jointly decrease the rainfall forecast skill during the NAO active negative period. Therefore, the skillful model prediction of the active summer NAO could help predict mei-yu events in the East Asian summer monsoon, suggesting further model improvements to the S2S forecasting of summertime mid-latitude variations are urgently needed.
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Data availability
The S2S database can be downloaded from http://s2s.cma.cn/index. The in situ rainfall records can be downloaded from http://data.cma.cn/en/?r=site/index. The JRA-55 reanalysis dataset is available from https://doi.org/10.5065/D6HH6H41. NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-1, produced by NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory, can be retrieved from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/grid-ded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html.
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Acknowledgements
This work was jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41830969, 41775052, and 41905076), the National Key R&D Program (2018YFC1505904), and the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (2021Z004, 2020Y008).
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Yan, Y., Liu, B., Zhu, C. et al. Subseasonal forecast barrier of the North Atlantic oscillation in S2S models during the extreme mei-yu rainfall event in 2020. Clim Dyn 58, 2913–2925 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06076-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06076-1