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Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

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Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas

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Abstract

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961–2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for commenting on an earlier draft. Thanks also to the Turkish State Meteorological Service and the Climate Research Branch of Meteorological Service of Canada for availing the used data and R-based software. It is mentioned that a version of this paper was presented at the 8th Atmospheric Sciences Symposium—ATMOS 2017.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, Istanbul Technical University Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

    Mohsen Abbasnia & Hüseyin Toros

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  1. Mohsen Abbasnia
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  2. Hüseyin Toros
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Correspondence to Mohsen Abbasnia .

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  1. Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia

    Ivica Vilibić

  2. Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Split, Croatia

    Kristian Horvath

  3. Fundación Centro de Estudios Ambientales, Department of Meteorology and Pollutant, Paterna, Valencia, Spain

    José Luis Palau

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Abbasnia, M., Toros, H. (2019). Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey. In: Vilibić, I., Horvath, K., Palau, J. (eds) Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Pageoph Topical Volumes. Birkhäuser, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11958-4_9

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