Abstract
Precise modeling of CO2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.
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Funding from projects CGL2013-48367-P, CGL2016-80609-R (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Ciencia e Innovacion), and CYTEMA (UCLM) is gratefully acknowledged. ANM acknowledges support from grant FPU 13/02798.
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Navarro, A., Moreno, R., Jiménez-Alcázar, A. et al. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26, 3184–3195 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0127-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0127-7