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Prediction of time to slope failure based on a new model

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Abstract

Landslide failure time prediction is considered a challenging issue in landslide research. A significant goal of landslide research is to provide scientific and accurate prediction methods. In this paper, the short-term forecasting of landslides (STFL) model is proposed by analyzing landslide deformation characteristics in a known evolution process. The landslides on the southern slope of the West open pit mine (SSWOPM) in Liaoning province, northeast China, and Huangci in Gansu province, northwest China, were selected as the study cases. After pre-processing, which include eliminating abnormal data (t test), adding missing data (cubic spline interpolation), and smoothing noisy data (Savitzky–Golay filters), the displacement data are assembled to serve as the model’s input parameters. The parameters of STFL can be obtained through the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm. Using the forecasting criterion, the time of failure of landslides can be predicted and determined. Forecasting results provide evidence that the STFL model can achieve an accurate prediction of landslide displacement (correlation coefficient R2 > 0.99). The forecasting results of the SSWOPM and Huangci landslides indicate that the forecasting failure time of the STFL model is March 10, 2014 and January 31, 1995, respectively, which are near the actual failure time compared with those obtained using the Verhulst model. This finding indicates that the new method has excellent reliability and accuracy in landslide prediction and a robust description of the landslide movement.

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Funding

This work was supported by Heilongjiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. LH2019D001), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2018M631895), and Heilongjiang Provincial Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. LBH-Z18001).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, 150040, Heilongjiang, China

    Zechuang Li & Peifeng Cheng

  2. School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China

    Junjie Zheng

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  1. Zechuang Li
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  2. Peifeng Cheng
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  3. Junjie Zheng
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Correspondence to Peifeng Cheng.

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Li, Z., Cheng, P. & Zheng, J. Prediction of time to slope failure based on a new model. Bull Eng Geol Environ 80, 5279–5291 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02234-1

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