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Prediction of time to slope failure: a general framework

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Abstract

The prediction of time to slope failure (TSF) is a goal of major importance for both landslide researchers and practitioners. A reasonably accurate prediction of TSF allows human losses to be avoided, damages to property to be reduced and adequate countermeasures to be designed. A pure “phenomenological” approach based on the observation and interpretation of the monitored data is generally employed in TSF prediction. Such an approach infers TSF mainly from the ground surface displacements using regression techniques based on empirical functions. These functions neglect the rheological soil parameters in order to reduce the prediction uncertainties. This paper presents an overlook of the methods associated with this approach and proposes a unique expression encompassing most of the previously proposed equations for TSF prediction, thus offering a general framework useful for comparisons between different methods. The methods discussed in this paper provide an effective tool, and sometimes the only tool, for TSF prediction. The fundamental problem is always one of data quality. A full confidence in all assumptions and parameters used in the prediction model is rarely, if ever, achieved. Therefore, TSF prediction models should be applied with care and the results interpreted with caution. Documented case studies represent the most useful source of information to calibrate the TSF prediction models.

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Notes

  1. For sake of completeness, already in the early 1930s, Heim (1932) attempted to forecast, without success, the failure of the rock slope above the town of Linthal in the Swiss Alps, as reported by Eberhardt (2008).

  2. An extensive review of the essential technical literature on the subject until 1988 has been made by Bhandari (1988).

Abbreviations

t :

Time

t f :

Time to slope failure

t 0 :

Beginning time of the measurements/creep stage

η :

Displacement or strain, rotation, seismic-energy release

\( \dot{\eta } \) :

Velocity

\( \dot{\eta }_{f} \) :

Velocity at failure or last velocity value monitored before failure

\( \ddot{\eta } \) :

Acceleration

\( \ddot{\eta }_{f} \) :

Acceleration at failure or last acceleration value monitored before failure

ε :

Strain

ε 0 :

Initial strain

\( \dot{\varepsilon } \) :

Strain rate

χ :

Plotting function of Eq. 9

a, b, α, β :

Empirical parameters, specific to each method

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Acknowledgments

The presented work has been supported by “Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Puglia” (Progetto Integrato sulla Difesa Ambientale), by “Agenzia Regionale per la Tecnologia e l’Innovazione” of Puglia Region (PS_119) and by funds of PRIN 2008. The valuable comments and suggestions of the reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Technical University of Bari, Bari, Italy

    A. Federico & A. Murianni

  2. Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL, USA

    M. Popescu

  3. School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

    G. Elia

  4. National Research Council, IGAG, Turin, Italy

    C. Fidelibus

  5. Autorità Portuale, Taranto, Italy

    G. Internò

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  1. A. Federico
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Correspondence to A. Federico.

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Federico, A., Popescu, M., Elia, G. et al. Prediction of time to slope failure: a general framework. Environ Earth Sci 66, 245–256 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-1231-5

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