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The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

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Abstract

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the WCRP-CORDEX-FPS on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean (FPSCONV-ALP-3) and the research data exchange infrastructure and services provided by the Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Germany, as part of the Helmholtz Data Federation initiative. Furthermore, the authors Aditya N. Mishra and Heimo Truhetz gratefully acknowledge the support received via the projects HighEnd:Extremes, EASICLIM, and reclip:convex, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. B368608, KR16AC0K13160, and B769999, respectively). The authors are also thankful for the computational resources granted by the John von Neumann Institute for Computing (NIC) and provided on the supercomputer JURECA at JSC through the grant JJSC39 and by the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC) through the grants 70992 and 71193, as well as the cooperation project GEOCLIM Data Infrastructure Austria, funded by the Austrian Education, Science and Research Ministry (BMBWF). The UIBK and ETH groups would also like to acknowledge PRACE for awarding them the access to Piz Daint at Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS, Switzerland). They also acknowledge the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS), and ETH Zuürich for their contributions to the development of the GPU-accelerated version of COSMO. SS and TL gratefully acknowledge the support of the Norwegian Environment Agency and their basic funding support of NORCE’s Climate Services strategic project. Their simulations were performed on resources provided by UNINETT Sigma2—the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway. The RegCM simulations for the ICTP institute have been completed thanks to the support of the Consorzio Interuniversitario per il Calcolo Automatico dell’Italia Nord Orientale (CINECA) super-computing center (Bologna, Italy). ICTP team also acknowledges the CETEMPS, University of L’Aquila, for allowing access to the Italian database of precipitation which GRIPHO is based on. The authors acknowledge Institutes providing observations: MeteoSwiss, Meteo-France, DWD Germany; the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project UERRA (http://www.uerra.eu) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://www.ecad.eu). The ETH, MZ, CNRM IPSL, ICTP, SMHI, Met-Office, DMI, KNMI acknowledge funding from the European Climate Prediction system project support (EUCP H2020, GA number: 776613).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy

    Emanuela Pichelli, Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi

  2. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

    Stefan Sobolowski & Torge Lorenz

  3. University of Innsbruck (UIBK), Innsbruck, Austria

    Nikolina Ban

  4. Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy

    Paolo Stocchi

  5. CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Antoinette Alias & Cecile Caillaud

  6. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden

    Danijel Belušić

  7. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    Segolene Berthou, Steven Chan & Elizabeth J. Kendon

  8. Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Rita M. Cardoso & Pedro M. M. Soares

  9. Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK

    Steven Chan

  10. Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark

    Ole Bøssing Christensen

  11. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

    Andreas Dobler

  12. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands

    Hylke de Vries & Geert Lenderink

  13. Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany

    Klaus Goergen

  14. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Cottbus, Germany

    Klaus Keuler

  15. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Graz, Austria

    Aditya N. Mishra & Heimo Truhetz

  16. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe, Germany

    Hans-Juergen Panitz

  17. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH-Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Christoph Schär & Jesus Vergara-Temprado

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  1. Emanuela Pichelli
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  2. Erika Coppola
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  8. Danijel Belušić
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Correspondence to Emanuela Pichelli.

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Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S. et al. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation. Clim Dyn 56, 3581–3602 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4

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