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Real-Time Delphi

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Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences

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Abstract

In the classic Delphi method, results are processed only after the conclusion of a round, and the numerical and qualitative information is reported back to the experts. This article describes a “real-time Delphi” approach, which eliminates the conventional “round logic” in favor of intermediate result feedback. The article describes the requirements of this efficiency-centered approach and discusses the biases and problems as well as the specifics of the survey procedure. In addition, the paper presents providers of software tools and identifies current developments regarding real-time Delphis.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Different notations are common in the literature, including RT Delphi (Gordon & Pease, 2006) and real-time Delphi (Geist, 2010; Gnatzy et al., 2011; Gordon, 2009).

  2. 2.

    The typification helps Delphi developers be clear about objectives, enables a methodological framing (e.g. design of the questions depending on the objective), and shows the possibilities that Delphi surveys offer (Häder, 2009, p. 31).

  3. 3.

    It should be noted, however, that a large sample size is not necessarily the objective. “In a statistically based study, Gordon observes, “such as a public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representative of a larger population; in Delphi, non-representative, knowledgeable persons are needed” (Gordon, 2009, p. 5).

  4. 4.

    The handbook Standards of Futures Research. Guidelines for Practice and Evaluation (Gerhold et al., 2021) provides guidelines for futures research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Psychology, Psychology of Sociotechnical Systems, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Berlin, Germany

    Lars Gerhold

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  1. Lars Gerhold
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Correspondence to Lars Gerhold .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Pädagogische Hochschule Schwäbisch Gmünd, Schwäbisch Gmünd, Germany

    Marlen Niederberger

  2. Research Institute For Sustainability Helmholtz Center Potsdam (RIFS), Potsdam, Germany

    Ortwin Renn

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Gerhold, L. (2023). Real-Time Delphi. In: Niederberger, M., Renn, O. (eds) Delphi Methods In The Social And Health Sciences. Springer, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38862-1_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38862-1_5

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