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Future Hydroclimatic Variability Projections Using Combined Statistical Downscaling Approach and Rainfall-Runoff Model: Case of Sebaou River Basin (Northern Algeria)

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Climate Change Impacts on Natural Resources, Ecosystems and Agricultural Systems

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Abstract

Due to its location in the Mediterranean basin, Algeria is one of the most countries vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The aim of this study is to assess future flow rate projections of Sebaou basin (Northern Algeria), using the coupling of statistical downscaling approach (SDSM) based on the general circulation model Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (GCM-HadCM3) of the Royaume-Uni with an anthropogenic forcing SRES A2a (pessimist) and SRES B2a (optimistic) and GR2M model for rainfall-runoff transformation. The use of GR2M rainfall-runoff model has been able to control the hydrological functioning of the basin with very satisfactory performance values expressed by the Nash values over 80% for most subbasins, except for the degradation the Nash coefficient after the commissioning of the Taksebt dam in the Oued Aissi subbasin after 2001. The combining approach showed, on one hand, a decrease in rainfall ranging from 18% to 14% and that the maximum, average, and minimum temperatures could continue to increase with a maximum of 1.1–0.65 °C, 1.1–1.25 °C, and 2.7–3.4 °C, respectively, for the H3A2 and H3B2 emission scenarios until the long-term horizon 2080. On the other hand, the model indicated that these climatic changes have an effect on decreases in the basin’s water resources and that the 2050 and 2080 horizons are the most deficient with a decrease in flows estimated from −35% to −49% for A2 and from −45 to −57% for B2 scenarios, respectively, which represents approximately 500–300 Hm3 by the end of the twenty-first century.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Vegetal Chemistry-Water-Energy Research Laboratory, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Department of Hydraulic Hassiba Benbouali, University of Chlef, Chlef, Algeria

    Bilel Zerouali

  2. Research Laboratory of Water Resources, Soil and Environment, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Amar Telidji University, Laghouat, Algeria

    Bilel Zerouali, Mohamed Chettih & Zak Abda

  3. Earth Sciences Faculty, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene, Bab Ezzouar, Algeria

    Mohamed Mesbah

Authors
  1. Bilel Zerouali
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  2. Mohamed Chettih
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  3. Zak Abda
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  4. Mohamed Mesbah
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Correspondence to Bilel Zerouali .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Maharashtra, India

    Chaitanya B. Pande

  2. Department of Earth Science, Banasthali University, Aliyabad, Rajasthan, India

    Kanak N. Moharir

  3. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Sudhir Kumar Singh

  4. Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Sosnowiec, Poland

    Quoc Bao Pham

  5. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Mansoura University, Al Manşūrah, Egypt

    Ahmed Elbeltagi

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Zerouali, B., Chettih, M., Abda, Z., Mesbah, M. (2023). Future Hydroclimatic Variability Projections Using Combined Statistical Downscaling Approach and Rainfall-Runoff Model: Case of Sebaou River Basin (Northern Algeria). In: Pande, C.B., Moharir, K.N., Singh, S.K., Pham, Q.B., Elbeltagi, A. (eds) Climate Change Impacts on Natural Resources, Ecosystems and Agricultural Systems. Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19059-9_11

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