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  • Book
  • Open Access
  • © 2019

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

  • This open access edited collection describes state-of-the-art methods of mortality forecasting

  • Includes statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives

  • Provides an interdisciplinary approach to the topic

Part of the book series: Demographic Research Monographs (DEMOGRAPHIC)

Buying options

Hardcover Book USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)

Table of contents (24 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xi
  2. Introduction

    • Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha M. Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel
    Pages 1-19Open Access
  3. Part II

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 93-93
    2. Erroneous Population Forecasts

      • Nico Keilman
      Pages 95-111Open Access
    3. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands

      • Maarten Alders, Joop de Beer
      Pages 123-143Open Access
    4. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems

      • Shripad Tuljapurkar
      Pages 145-155Open Access
  4. Part III

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 157-158
    2. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days

      • Jim Oeppen, James W. Vaupel
      Pages 159-166Open Access
    3. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends

      • Ronald Lee
      Pages 167-183Open Access

About this book

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements.  It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives.  The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.


  • open access
  • Mortality forecast
  • Longevity and life expectancy
  • Cause of death
  • Forecast accuracy
  • Models for projecting mortality
  • SCOPE Approach
  • Probabilistic modeling
  • Demography
  • Population health
  • Extrapolation

Editors and Affiliations

  • Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

    Tommy Bengtsson

  • Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

    Nico Keilman

About the editors

Tommy Bengtsson is Professor of Demography and Economic History, Lund University. He received his doctoral degree from Lund University in 1980 on a dissertation on 20th century technological change and labor market issues. Afterwards, he started to work in the area of population economics, especially on demographic response to short-term changes in real wages using historical records at macro level for Sweden. Next, he combined an event history approach with a time-series approach to analyze the effects of changes in real wages on demographic outcomes at micro level. Later, he used a similar approach studying the effects of conditions in early life on health and socioeconomic performance later in life. To be able to do so, he build up the Scanian Economic Demographic Database (SEDD), which is closing the gap between the historical and contemporary datasets and today, the Centre for Economic Demography (CED), which he started in 2006, is administrating the database. Bengtsson has also been involved in studies on population ageing and welfare state as well as on the current immigration to Sweden.


Nico Keilman is Professor of Demography at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo, since 1994. He studied applied mathematics and demography at the universities of Delft and Utrecht, and received his doctoral degree at the latter university in 1990, for a dissertation on the accuracy of population forecasts. He has more than 30 years of experience in mathematical and statistical research on demographic models for the dynamics of living arrangements, mortality projections, and demographic methods in general. From 2006 until 2011, he was the editor of Demographic Research. 

Bibliographic Information

Buying options

Hardcover Book USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)