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A multidimensional analysis and the chronologic structure of the Earth’s geodynamic activity

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Abstract

An attempt has been undertaken to examine time series of volcanic and seismic events in a multidimensional reference system related to the parameters of the Earth’s orbital motion. Volcanic eruptions and strong (M > 5) earthquakes (a sample from the USGS/NEIC seismological database: Significant Worldwide Earthquakes) [18] were analyzed within the fields of the JPL Planetary and Lunar Ephemerides, (DE-406) astronomical indicators [19]: the Earth-Moon distance, Earth-Sun distance, ecliptic latitude of the Moon, and the differences between the geocentric longitudes of the Moon and Sun, Venus and Sun, and Mars and Sun. Distribution spectra were obtained and normalization was performed taking the nonuniform motion of celestial bodies into consideration, and the values of multidimensional diurnal probability were calculated. As a result, the statistically reliable drift in the distribution of geoevents was calculated relative to the duration of the intervals of multidimensional diurnal probability, which indicates distribution regions where more geoevents can take place during shorter intervals (and vice versa). Linear relationships between the multidimensional diurnal probability and diurnal probability of geoevents were found. All these results and the astronomic ephemerides were used as a base for computing the probabilities of volcanic and seismic activity of the Earth for the period of 2005–2007. The spatial structure of volcanic and seismic processes was examined, which allowed the revelation of probabilistic parameters of the spatiotemporal structure of Earth’s geodynamic activity and outlining an approximate algorithm for its monitoring.

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Authors
  1. V. M. Fedorov
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Original Russian Text © V.M. Fedorov, 2007, published in Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Geologiya, 2007, No. 4, pp. 24–31.

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Fedorov, V.M. A multidimensional analysis and the chronologic structure of the Earth’s geodynamic activity. Moscow Univ. Geol. Bull. 62, 234–243 (2007). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0145875207040047

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S0145875207040047

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