Abstract
During any pandemic, to decrease the spreading possibility of infectious diseases to people, boosting public awareness is crucial. Media helps to boost this awareness. This paper aims to check the impact of awareness of media regarding infectious diseases. For this reason, an SEIR-type epidemic model is proposed and examined in this research, along with the memory effect. Here, stability analysis and the existence and uniqueness of the non-negative and bounded solution of our model are explored. The basic reproduction number \(R_0\) is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Depending on the value of \(R_0\), only one endemic equilibrium occurs and is stable for \(R_0>1\). In addition, it is found that the system encounters a transcritical bifurcation at \(R_0=1\). Here, the optimal treatment and vaccination are determined using the fractional-order optimal control. The findings are also displayed and corroborated by replicating the model with certain hypothetical parameter values, and it can be concluded that fractional order produces better outcomes when the sickness persists in the population. To determine how sensitive the parameters are to \(R_0\) and the state variables, we do local and global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that by reducing the rates of new recruitment and disease transmission, we might be able to lower the value of \(R_0\). We might be able to retain more susceptibles in the susceptible class by increasing media literacy as well.
Data availability
Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study.
References
W.O. Kermack, A.G. McKendrick, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A Contain. Pap. Math. Phys. Char. 115(772), 700–721 (1927)
R. Lu, B. Ramakrishnan, M.W. Falah, A.K. Farhan, N.M.G. Al-Saidi, V.T. Pham, Synchronization and different patterns in a network of diffusively coupled elegant Wang–Zhang–Bao circuits. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00690-8
M. Jawad, Z. Khan, E. Bonyah, R. Jan, Analysis of hybrid nanofluid stagnation point flow over a stretching surface with melting heat transfer. Math. Probl. Eng. 2022, 9469164 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/9469164
N.T.J. Bailey, The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Disease and its Applications (Charles Griffin and Company, London, 1975)
R.H. Anderson, R.M. May, Infectious Disease of Humans (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991)
M. Amaku, F.A.B. Coutinho, E. Massad, Why dengue and yellow fever coexist in some areas of the world and not in others? Biosystems 106(2–3), 111–120 (2011)
S. Majee, S. Adak, S. Jana, M. Mandal, T.K. Kar, Complex dynamics of a fractional-order SIR system in the context of COVID-19. J. Appl. Math. Comput. 68, 4051–4074 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12190-021-01681-z
P.A. Naik, Global dynamics of a fractional order SIR epidemic model with memory. Int. J. Biomath. 13(8), 2050071 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793524520500710
A.M. Yousef, S.M. Salman, Backward bifurcation in a fractional-order SIRS epidemic model with a non-linear incidence rate. Int. J. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 7–8(17), 401–412 (2016)
S. Majee, S. Jana, D.K. Das, T.K. Kar, Global dynamics of a fractional-order HFMD model incorporating optimal treatment and stochastic stability. Chaos Solitons Fractals 161, 112291 (2022)
R. Jan, S. Boulaaras, S. Alyobi, M. Jawad, Transmission dynamics of hand-foot-mouth disease with partial immunity through non-integer derivative. Int. J. Biomath. 16, 2250115 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793524522501157
C. Ozcaglar, A. Shabbeer, S.L. Vandenberg, B. Yener, K.P. Bennett, Epidemiological models of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex infections. Math. Biosci. 236(2), 77–96 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2012.02.003
A. Khatua, D.K. Das, T.K. Kar, Optimal control strategy for adherence to different treatment regimen in various stages of tuberculosis infection. Eur. Phys. J. Plus 136, 801 (2021)
S. Majee, S. Jana, S. Barman, T.K. Kar, Transmission dynamics of monkeypox virus with treatment and vaccination controls: a fractional order mathematical approach. Phys. Scr. 98(2), 024002 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1088/1402-4896/acae64
S. Majee, S. Jana, T.K. Kar, Dynamical analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating optimal vaccination and treatment with cost-effectiveness. Chaos 33, 043103 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0139157
S. Paul, A. Mahata, S. Mukherjee, B. Roy, M. Salimi, A. Ahmadian, Study of fractional order SEIR epidemic model and effect of vaccination on the spread of COVID-19. Int. J. Appl. Comput. Math. 8, 237 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40819-022-01411-4
S. Adak, R. Majumder, S. Majee, S. Jana, T.K. Kar, An ANFIS model-based approach to investigate the effect of lockdown due to COVID-19 on public health. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 231, 3317–3327 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00621-7
T.K. Kar, S. Jana, A theoretical study on mathematical modelling of an infectious disease with application of optimal control. Biosystems 111(1), 37–50 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystems.2012.10
T.K. Kar, S. Jana, Application of three controls optimally in a vector-borne disease—a mathematical study. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 18(10), 2868–2884 (2013)
H.W. Berhe, O.D. Makinde, D.M. Theuri, Co-dynamics of measles and dysentery diarrhea diseases with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis. Appl. Math. Comput. 347, 903–921 (2019)
T.K. Kar, S.K. Nandi, S. Jana, M. Mandal, Stability and bifurcation analysis of an epidemic model with the effect of media. Chaos Solitons Fractals 120, 188–199 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2019.01.025
Y. Li, J. Cui, The impact of media coverage on the dynamics of infectious disease. Int. J. Biomath. 1(1), 65–74 (2008)
R. Jan, S. Boulaaras, S.A.A. Shah, Fractional-calculus analysis of human immunodeficiency virus and CD4+ T-cells with control interventions. Commun. Theor. Phys. 74(10), 105001 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1088/1572-9494/ac7e2b
R. Jan, A. Alharbi, S. Boulaaras, S. Alyobi, Z. Khan, A robust study of the transmission dynamics of zoonotic infection through non-integer derivative. Demonstr. Math. 55(1), 922–938 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1515/dema-2022-0179
O. AbuArqub, Computational algorithm for solving singular Fredholm time-fractional partial integrodifferential equations with error estimates. J. Appl. Math. Comput. 59, 227–243 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12190-018-1176-x
S. Momani, O.A. Arqub, B. Maayah, Piecewise optimal fractional reproducing Kernel solution and convergence analysis for the Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo model of the Lienard’s equation. Fractals 28(08), 2040007 (2020)
M. Borah, A. Gayan, J.S. Sharma, Y.Q. Chen, Z. Wei, V.T. Pham, Is fractional-order chaos theory the new tool to model chaotic pandemics as Covid-19? Nonlinear Dyn. 109, 1187–1215 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-07196-3
R. Jan, Z. Shah, W. Deebani, E. Alzahrani, Analysis and dynamical behavior of a novel dengue model via fractional calculus. Int. J. Biomath. 15(06), 2250036 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1142/S179352452250036X
T.Q. Tang, Z. Shah, E. Bonyah, R. Jan, M. Shutaywi, N. Alreshidi, Modeling and analysis of breast cancer with adverse reactions of chemotherapy treatment through fractional derivative. Comput. Math. Methods Med. 2022, 5636844 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/5636844
M. Du, Z. Wang, H. Hu, Measuring memory with the order of fractional derivative. Sci. Rep. 3, 3431 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03431
H.A.A. El-Saka, The fractional-order SIS epidemic model with variable population size. J. Egypt. Math. Soc. 22(1), 50–54 (2014)
F. Gao, X. Li, W. Li, X. Zhou, Stability analysis of a fractional-order novel hepatitis B virus model with immune delay based on Caputo–Fabrizio derivative. Chaos Solitons Fractals 142, 110436 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110436
I. Petras, Fractional-order Nonlinear Systems: Modeling Aanlysis and Simulation (Higher Education Press, Beijing, 2011)
J.M. Tchuenche, N. Dube, C.P. Bhunu, R.J. Smith, C.T. Bauch, The impact of media coverage on the transmission dynamics of human influenza. BMC Public Health 11(S1), 1–14 (2011)
A. Khatua, T.K. Kar, Impacts of media awareness on a stage structured epidemic model. Int. J. Appl. Comput. Math. 6(5), 1–22 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40819-020-00904-4
E. Ahmed, A.S. Elgazzar, On fractional order differential equations model for nonlocal epidemics. Physica A Stat. Mech. Appl. 379(2), 607–614 (2007)
V.D. Djordjević, J. Jarić, B. Fabry et al., Fractional derivatives embody essential features of cell rheological behavior. Ann. Biomed. Eng. 31, 692–699 (2003)
A.M.A. El-Sayed, S.M. Salman, N.A. Elabd, On a fractional-order delay Mackey–Glass equation. Adv. Differ. Equ. 137, 1–11 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-016-0863-x
S.M. Salman, A.M. Yousef, On a fractional-order model for HBV infection with cure of infected cells. J. Egypt. Math. Soc. 4(25), 445–451 (2017)
H. Delavari, D. Baleanu, J. Sadati, Stability analysis of caputo fractional-order non-linear systems revisited. Nonlinear Dyn. 67, 2433–2439 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-011-0157-5
O.A. Arqub, A. El-Ajou, Solution of the fractional epidemic model by homotopy analysis method. J. King Saud Univ. Sci. 25(1), 73–81 (2013)
C. Huang, L. Cai, J. Cao, Linear control for synchronization of a fractional-order time-delayed chaotic financial system. Chaos Solitons Fractals 113, 326–332 (2018)
J. Huo, H. Zhao, L. Zhu, The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model. Nonlinear Anal. Real World Appl. 26, 289–305 (2015)
R. Rakkiyappan, G. Velmurugan, J. Cao, Stability analysis of fractional order complex-valued neural networks with time delays. Chaos Solitons Fractals 78, 297–316 (2015)
Y. Li, Y. Chen, I. Podlubny, Stability of fractional-order non-linear dynamic systems: Lyapunov direct method and generalized Mittag–Leffler stability. Comput. Math. Appl. 59, 1810–1821 (2010)
R. Jan, S. Boulaaras, Analysis of fractional-order dynamics of dengue infection with non-linear incidence functions. Trans. Inst. Meas. Control 44(13), 2630–2641 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1177/01423312221085049
P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 180, 29–48 (2002)
E. Ahmed, A.M.A. El-Sayed, H.A.A. El-Saka, On some Routh–Hurwitz conditions for fractional order differential equations and their applications in Lorenz, Rössler, Chua and Chen systems. Phys. Lett. A 358(1), 1–4 (2006)
G. Guckenheimer, P. Holmes, Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems, and Bifurcations of Vector Fields (Springer, New York, 1983)
L.S. Pontryagin, V.G. Boltyanskii, R.V. Gamkrelidze, E.F. Mishchenko, The Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes (Wiley, New York, 1962)
W.H. Fleming, R.W. Rishel, Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal Control (Springer, New York, 1975)
D.L. Lukes, Differential Equations: Classical to Control, Mathematics in Science and Engineering, vol. 162 (Academic Press, New York, 1982)
R. Shi, T. Lu, Dynamic analysis and optimal control of a fractional order model for hand-foot-mouth Disease. J. Appl. Math. Comput. 64, 565–590 (2020)
K. Diethelm, Efficient solution of multi-term fractional differential equations using \(P(EC)^mE\) methods. Computing 71(4), 305–319 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00607-003-0033-3
M. Mandal, S. Jana, S. Majee, A. Khatua, T.K. Kar, Forecasting the pandemic COVID-19 in India: a mathematical approach. J. Appl. Nonlinear Dyn. 11(3), 549–571 (2022). https://doi.org/10.5890/JAND.2022.09.004
J.K.K. Asamoah, E. Yankson, E. Okyere, G.Q. Sun, Z. Jin, R. Jan, Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for dengue fever model with asymptomatic and partial immune individuals. Results Phys. 31, 104919 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104919
A. Jan, R. Jan, H. Khan, M.S. Zobaer, R. Shah, Fractional-order dynamics of Rift Valley fever in ruminant host with vaccination. Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci. 2020, 79 (2020). https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/5017
J. Wu, R. Dhingra, M. Gambhir, J.V. Remais, Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application. J. R. Soc. Interface 10(86) (2013). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2012.1018
S. Marino, I.B. Hogue, C.J. Ray, D.E. Kirschner, A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. J. Theor. Biol. 254(1), 178–196 (2008)
F.K. Zadeh, J. Nossent, F. Sarrazin, F. Pianosi, A. van Griensven, T. Wagener, W. Bauwens, Comparison of variance-based and moment-independent global sensitivity analysis approaches by application to the SWAT model. Environ. Model. Softw. 91, 210–222 (2017)
F.J. Massey Jr., The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for goodness of fit. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 46(253), 68–78 (1951)
H. Abboubakar, R. Fandio, B.S. Sofack, H.P. Ekobena Fouda, Fractional dynamics of a measles epidemic model. Axioms 11(8), 363 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11080363
S.M. Salman, Memory and media coverage effect on an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment. J. Comput. Appl. Math. 385(15), 113203 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2020.113203
Acknowledgements
Research work of Suvankar Majee is financially supported by Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India (File No. 08/003(0142)/2020-EMR-I, dated: 18th March 2020), the work of Snehasis Barman is financially supported by NATIONAL FELLOWSHIP FOR SCHEDULED CAST STUDENTS (UGC-NFSC, UGC-Ref.No.: 191620004584, Dated: 20/05/2020) and the work of Prof. Tapan Kumar Kar is financially supported by Science and Engineering Research Board (File No. MTR/2022/000734, dated: 19/12/2022), Department of Science and Technology, Government of India. The authors would like to thank the guest editors Salah Boulaaras, Rashid Jan and Viet-Thanh Pham of the journal and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and comments toward significant improvement of the article.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Majee, S., Barman, S., Khatua, A. et al. The impact of media awareness on a fractional-order SEIR epidemic model with optimal treatment and vaccination. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 232, 2459–2483 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-023-00910-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-023-00910-9