Abstract
In the 1980s, one of the fundamental topics of scientific debate was the discussion of the global consequences of nuclear war. At that time, the hypothesis of “nuclear winter” emerged, in which scientists attempted to analyze the theoretical possibility of a sharp cooling of the Earth after mass fires and find natural analogues of a potential climatic catastrophe. In the following decades, the “nuclear winter” hypothesis went through various stages of criticism and reassessment. In the early 2000s, studies of the problem became regional in nature, focusing mainly on the possible consequences of local nuclear conflicts. In this article, the authors analyze the stages of development of research on the “nuclear winter” hypothesis, focusing on the Russian and American approaches, and conclude that the body of work produced by American and Soviet scientists in 1983–1985 represents the first attempts by the scientific community to conceptualize the problem of responsible nuclear policy.
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Notes
R. Wolfson and F. Dalnoki-Veress, “The devastating effects of nuclear weapons,” MIT Press Reader, Mar. 2 (2022). https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/. Cited January 25, 2023.
Paul Crutzen (a Dutch atmospheric chemist who studied the relationship between nitrogen oxides and ozone photochemistry) moved from Stockholm University to Oxford and then to Boulder, and by that time he was Director of the Air Chemistry Department at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany. John Burks was an Associate Professor of chemistry at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and a Researcher at that university’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. For more details, see Badash 2009.
Martin 1988.
Crutzen, Birks 1982.
Barton et al. 1984.
Turco et al. 1983.
Horowitz et al. 1984; Sagan et al. 1986.
Turco et al. 1983.
For detailed biographies of the scientists, see Dörries 2011.
Badash 2009.
Dörries 2011; Badash 2009.
Chester et al. 1984.
Thompson et al. 1986.
Thompson et al. 1986.
R. Wolfson and F. Dalnoki-Veress, “The devastating effects of nuclear weapons,” MIT Press Reader, Mar. 2 (2022). https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/. Cited January 25, 2023.
Aleksandrov, Stenchikov 1983; Golitsyn, Ginzburg 1983.
Aleksandrov 1982.
Tarko 2022.
For more information about this stage, see Samoylovskaya 2023.
Barloewen et al. 2010, 396.
Sagan 1983, 275.
Hippel 1983.
Teller 1984.
D. Horowitz was a Professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; R.J. Lieber was a Professor of government at Georgetown University. Horowitz et al. 1984.
Horowitz et al. 1984, 995.
For more information on the topic of strategic relations between Russia and NATO in the context of events in Ukraine, see Stefanovich et al. 2023.
Horowitz et al. 1984, 996.
Horowitz et al. 1984, 1002.
For contemporary discussions on threshold values, see Bogdanov 2023.
Thompson et al. 1986.
Sagan 1983.
Hippel 1983; Teller 1985.
Walker 2010.
For a more detailed analysis of discussions on strategic issues in the context of the “nuclear winter” hypothesis, see Badash 2009.
“Reagan’s nuclear war briefing declassified,” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/ 2016-12-22/reagans-nuclear-war-briefing-declassified#_ednref9. Cited January 1, 2023.
Coupe et al. 2019.
Nacht et al. 2010.
Toon et al. 2019.
Ginzburg et al. 1992.
Bracken 2000.
Bracken 2000.
Кокошин 2003.
Bivens 2022.
H. Kristensen, M. Korda, E. Johns, and K. Kohn, “Status of world nuclear forces,” Federation of American Scientists, Mar. 31 (2023). https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/. Cited January 25, 2023.
Nuclear ammunition, Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. https://encyclopedia.mil.ru/encyclopedia/dictionary/ details_rvsn.htm?id=13804@morfDictionary
Sagan 1983.
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Aleksandr Samuilovich Ginzburg, Dr. Sci. (Phys.–Math.), is Head of the Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology and Chief Researcher at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Russian Academy of Sciences. Natalya Aleksandrovna Samoylovskaya is a Junior Researcher at the Institute for International Studies, MGIMO University.
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Ginzburg, A.S., Samoylovskaya, N.A. The “Nuclear Winter” Hypothesis and a Responsible Nuclear Policy. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331624010015
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331624010015