Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Russian Economy: Borders of Growth

  • Science and Society
  • Published:
Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to predict the likely dynamics of Russia’s GDP and consumption fund for 15 years, based solely on highly aggregated characteristics of investment activity—the savings rate and the incremental capital−output ratio. Hypotheses regarding investment parameters are formed with account for their values and trends during the retrospective period 2001–2020. The results of forecast calculations show that there is a fundamental possibility to ensure the average annual GDP growth rate for the period up to 2035 at approximately 3%. This will require serious investments to increase the savings rate to 26−27% in three to four years, at the same time significantly improving the quality of the investment resource and the return on additional capital, and to begin forming a production apparatus on a new technological platform.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Hereinafter, unless there are special reservations, the calculations are carried out on the World Bank information base [2].

  2. Equation (2) is given in the Harrod–Domar model [9, p. 85] as a “fundamental equation” in [10].

  3. Note that in subsequent calculations, we do not rely on the Harrod–Domar model as an integral structure but only on one of the equations of this model, supplemented by relation (6).

  4. Source: Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS). Rosstat.

  5. In connection with the forecasts of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, we cannot but mention one curious incident. The ministry proposed its forecast for 2022, 2024–2025, and in general for the period 2022–2025. However, at the final strategy session on the main vectors of economic policy under the sanctions, the minister refused to give a forecast for 2023 due to the fact that “discussions about this assessment continue and remain sensitive” [15].

  6. Including the provision of services in the field of mining: conducting prospecting and exploration, drilling, installation, repair, and dismantling of a drilling rig on site; liquefaction and enrichment of natural gas at the production site; etc. [16].

  7. According to the forecasts of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, oil production in 2022 is expected at the level of 515 million tons and in 2023, 475 million tons compared to 524 million tons in 2021; gas production, respectively 710.9 billion cubic meters and 713 billion against 763.5 billion in 2021 [18]. According to expert estimates, in the second quarter of 2022, the exports of Russian coal to Japan and South Korea decreased by 17.2% compared to the previous quarter, and in July the average daily exports decreased by another 25.3% compared to the second quarter [19].

REFERENCES

  1. Strategy 2020: New Growth Model, New Social Policy: Final Report on the Results of Expert Work on Topical Issues of Russia’s Socioeconomic Strategy for the Period up to 2020, Book 1, Ed. by V. A. Mau and Ya. I. Kuz’minov (Izd. Dom Delo RANKhiGS, Moscow, 2013) [in Russian].

  2. World development indicators database, World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Cited November 15, 2022.

  3. Regulation of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2816-r dated October 6, 2021 (as amended on March 14, 2022) “On Approval of the List of Initiatives for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation until 2030.” https://www.consultant.ru/ document/cons_doc_LAW_144190/efed04ada37b4d8e820b83d0cdd4ea1a2a2ae240/. Cited November 15, 2022.

  4. On the forecast of the socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the planned period of 2024 and 2025. http://council.gov.ru/activity/documents/138956/. Cited November 15, 2022.

  5. “Social Protection for Recovery”—Europe and Central Asia Economic Update (Fall) (World Bank, Washington, 2022). https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1928-5 https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2022/10/04/15575173.shtml. Cited November 15, 2022.

  6. Terrible forecast for the Russian economy from Bloomberg: Will it come true?. https://news.ru/economics/strashnyj-prognoz-dlya-ekonomiki-rf-ot-bloomberg-sbudetsya-li-on/. Cited November 15, 2022.

  7. Scientific Report “Potential Opportunities for Growth of the Russian Economy: Analysis and Forecast,” Ed. by RAS Corresponding Member A. A. Shirov (Artik Print, Moscow, 2022). https://doi.org/10.47711/sr2-2022 https://ecfor.ru/ wpcontent/uploads/2022/07/potentsialnye-vozmozhnosti-rosta-rossijskoj-ekonomiki-analiz-i-prognoz.pdf. Cited November 15, 2022.

  8. VEB Institute. The current situation and forecast for the development of the Russian economy under sanctions, September 2022. http://inveb.ru/attachments/article/883/%20%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%83%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F%20%20%D0%B8%20%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B7~.pdf. Cited November 15, 2022.

  9. R. F. Harrod, Towards a Dynamic Economics. Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and Their Application to Policy (Macmillan, London, 1948).

    Google Scholar 

  10. L. E. Blume, T. J. Sargent, and R. F. Harrod, “HARROD 1939,” Econ. J. 125 (583), 350–377 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. R. F. Harrod, “An essay in dynamic theory,” Econ. J. 49 (193), 14–33 (1939).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. D. E. Domar, “Capital expansion, rate of growth, and employment,” Econometrica 14 (2), 137–147 (1946).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. The World Bank. Russian economic report no. 40, December 2018. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/ 970371543924414355-0080022018/original/RER40Russian.pdf. Cited November 15, 2022.

  14. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation predicted the growth of the country’s GDP by 17% by 2030. https://53news.ru/novosti/glava-minekonomrazvitiya-rf-sprognoziroval-rost-vvp-strany-na-17-k-2030-godu.html. Cited November 15, 2022.

  15. The Ministry of Economic Development has improved the forecast for a decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022 to 4.2% from 78%. https://www.interfax.ru/business/ 856952. Cited November 15, 2022.

  16. OKVED code 09.10: Provision of services in the field of oil and natural gas production. https://www.regfile.ru/okved2/razdel-b/09/09.1/09.10.html. Cited November 15, 2022.

  17. Rosstat. Investments in Russia. https://gks.ru/bgd/regl/b21_56/Main.htm. Cited November 15, 2022.

  18. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects a decrease in oil and gas production and an increase in revenues from their sale. https://oilcapital.ru/news/2022-08-17/minekonomrazvitiya-rf-ozhidaet-snizheniya-dobychi-nefti-i-gaza-i-rosta-dohodov-ot-ih-prodazhi-1224769. Cited November 15, 2022.

  19. Buried: How Europe finds new coal suppliers, and Russia finds new customers. https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/472953-zakopalis-kak-evropa-nahodit-novyh-postavsikov-ugla-a-rossia-novyh-klientov. Cited November 15, 2022.

  20. The government redesigned the electronics. The authorities have concretized plans to save the industry. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5306920. Cited November 15, 2022.

Download references

Funding

This article was prepared as part of the implementation of the R&D plan for the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, project no. 121040100262-7, “Tools, Technologies, and Results of Analysis, Modeling, and Forecasting of the Spatial Development of the Socioeconomic System of Russia and Its Individual Territories.”

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering (IEIE), Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia

    B. L. Lavrovskii

  2. Novosibirsk State Technical University (NSTU), Novosibirsk, Russia

    B. L. Lavrovskii

  3. Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia

    E. A. Shil’tsin

Authors
  1. B. L. Lavrovskii
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. E. A. Shil’tsin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to B. L. Lavrovskii or E. A. Shil’tsin.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Translated by B. Alekseev

Publisher’s Note.

Pleiades Publishing remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Boris Leonidovich Lavrovskii, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), is a Leading Researcher at the IEIE SB RAS and a Professor at NSTU. Evgenii Aleksandrovich Shil’tsin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), is an Associate Professor at Novosibirsk State University.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Lavrovskii, B.L., Shil’tsin, E.A. The Russian Economy: Borders of Growth. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. 93, 205–212 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331623020053

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331623020053

Keywords:

Search

Navigation