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World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences

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Abstract

The work is a continuation of the article published in the journal Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk (2019, No. 7) in which a review of tools for quantifying the effects of trade wars was given. This article presents the results of calculations of the consequences of several scenarios of the trade war of the United States and its European allies against Russia and China. These results were obtained using a software package that considers more than 100 countries of the world, and the subjects of each of the countries interact with each other through trade and financial relations. The complex includes a simulator of socio-economic dynamics, built by experts from China. It acts as an external contour for a number of models of the socio-economic system of the Eurasian continent developed at the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute in 2016–2018. The calculated scenarios envisage an increase in import duties on all goods from China and Russia delivered to the United States and EU countries, as well as symmetrical responses. A separate consideration is the imitation of restrictive measures in relation to all Russian export goods. It also analyzes trade relations between Russia and the rest of the world and examines the benefits of an agent-based approach for modeling socio-economic systems.

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Notes

  1. For more details, see http://www.eurace.org.

  2. For details, see http://www.futurict.eu.

  3. The model was developed with the direct participation of the leading researcher of RAS CEMI E.D. Sushko.

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Funding

This study was carried out as part of the research program “Basic Research on the Problem of Economic Security” initiated by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    V. L. Makarov, B. R. Khabriev & A. R. Bakhtizin

  2. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    V. L. Makarov & A. R. Bakhtizin

  3. Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., Ltd., Guangzhou, China

    Jie Wu & Zili Wu

  4. Center for Economic and Social Integration and Forecasting, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China

    Jie Wu

  5. Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, Guangzhou, China

    Jie Wu

  6. OOO RT-Razvitie Biznesa, Moscow, Russia

    B. R. Khabriev

Authors
  1. V. L. Makarov
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  2. Jie Wu
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  3. Zili Wu
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  4. B. R. Khabriev
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  5. A. R. Bakhtizin
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to V. L. Makarov, Jie Wu, Zili Wu, B. R. Khabriev or A. R. Bakhtizin.

Additional information

Translated by S. Avodkova

Academician Valerii Leonidivich Makarov is Scientific Director of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences (CEMI RAS) and Head of the Laboratory of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Jie Wu is chairman of the board of Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., Ltd., a researcher at the Center for Economic and Social Integration and Forecasting of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), and a visiting professor at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences. Zili Wu is Vice Chairman of Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., Ltd. Bulat Ramilovich Khabriev is transaction support manager of OOO RT-Razvitie Biznesa and a graduate student of CEMI RAS. Corresponding Member of the RAS Albert Raufovich Bakhtizin is Director of CEMI RAS.

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Makarov, V.L., Wu, J., Wu, Z. et al. World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. 90, 88–97 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331620010207

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331620010207

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