Abstract
In this paper, the GTAP model is used to simulate the impact of the withdrawal of U.S. from the WTO on China and even the global economy. It is found that the withdrawal of the United States from WTO has both positive and negative effects on China's economy and these effects expand with the rise of tariff level between the United States and WTO members. The positive influence comes from the fact that after the United States imposes tariffs on other WTO members, it will worsen the terms of trade between the United States and other WTO members, reduce import and export, and bring favorable effects to China. The negative effects are mainly due to the escalating trade war between China and the United States. The withdrawal of the United States from the WTO and the imposition of tariffs on China will lead to the deterioration of trade between China and the United States, which is not conducive to the export of Chinese products to the United States. We have obtained the import and export data of the world in recent three years. Based on the GTAP model and correlation analysis method, we analyze and model the data. Through the simulation experiment based on the GTAP model, we derive a decision-making model with great reference value.
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Kou, Z., Gao, Q., Zhang, M. (2021). A GTAP Simulation-Based Analysis Method for Impact of the US Exit from WTO and China's Strategic Choice. In: Song, H., Jiang, D. (eds) Simulation Tools and Techniques. SIMUtools 2020. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 370. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72795-6_16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72795-6_16
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