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An Empirical Model for Estimating the Velocities and Delays of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

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Abstract

The behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejection velocity is studied as a function of its source heliolongitude (associated solar flare), initial velocity, and ambient solar wind velocity. The modeling is based on data on 364 coronal mass ejections accompanied by flares observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph, which interplanetary counterparts were subsequently recorded near Earth in the period from 1995 to 2021. A model is described that makes it possible to estimate the transit and maximum velocities of the corresponding interplanetary disturbance, as well as the time of its arrival to Earth. The average absolute error in estimating the propagation time of interplanetary coronal mass ejections for the considered 364 events is 11.5 h, and the average relative error is 16.5%.

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Funding

Shlyk N.S., Belov A.V., Abunina M.A. and Abunin A.A. supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant no. 20-72-10 023.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences (IZMIRAN), Moscow, Troitsk, Russia

    N. S. Shlyk, A. V. Belov, M. A. Abunina & A. A. Abunin

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  1. N. S. Shlyk
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  2. A. V. Belov
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  3. M. A. Abunina
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  4. A. A. Abunin
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Correspondence to N. S. Shlyk.

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Shlyk, N.S., Belov, A.V., Abunina, M.A. et al. An Empirical Model for Estimating the Velocities and Delays of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections. Geomagn. Aeron. 63, 564–573 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793223600443

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