Skip to main content
Log in

Supply chain forecasting for the UK Chinook fleet

  • Original Article
  • Published:
OR Insight

Abstract

This article reports on a preliminary evaluation of the performance of UKTLCS's inventory and forecasting system. This is undertaken while making recommendations for new techniques for intermittent item demand. A total of 92 items are identified as largely intermittent. These items are identified by examining both cost drivers and the most expensive spare part consumables. Research into the current proprietary system identified an imprecision problem with the current forecasting approach. For example, it is shown that imprecision of the forecasting approach may have meant that the demands for a number of cost drivers are being substantially miscalculated. For propriety reasons, all data have been sanitised.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Altay, N., Rudisill, F. and Litteral, L. (2008) Adapting Wright's modification of Holt's method to forecasting intermittent demand. International Journal of Production Economics 111 (2): 389–408.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bachman, T. and Kruse, K. (1994) Forecasting Demand for Weapon System Items. A report published by the Logistics Management Institute on behalf of the Defence Logistics Agency.

  • Bousquet, A. (2008) Chaoplexic warfare or the future of military organization. International Affairs 84: 915–929.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croston, J. (1972) Forecasting and stock control for intermittent demands. Journal of the Operations Research Society 23: 289–304.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dekker, R., Kleijn, M. and de Rooij, P. (1998) A spare parts stocking policy based on equipment criticality. International Journal of Production Economics 56–57: 69–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Denicoff, M., Fennell, J. and Solomon, H. (1960) Summary of a method for determining the military worth of spare parts. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 7 (3): 221–234.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimanlig, A., Meadowcroft, E., Strawn, R. and Potsdam, M. (2007) Computational Modelling of the CH-47 Helicopter in Hover, American Helicopter Society 63rd Annual Forum; Virginia Beach, VA.

  • Eaves, A. and Kingsman, B. (2004) Forecasting for the ordering and stock-holding of spare parts. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (4): 431–437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, S. (2000) Swarming on the Battlefield: Past, Present, and Future. Santa Monica, CA: Rand monograph MR-1100, Publication, Rand-Edwards.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fontela, E. (1978) Political and military forecasting. Futures 10 (2): 90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghobbar, A. and Friend, C. (2003) Evaluation of forecasting methods for intermittent parts demand in the field of aviation: A predictive model. Computers & Operations Research 30 (14): 2097–2114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartley, K. (1969) Estimating military aircraft production outlays: The British experience. The Economic Journal 79 (316): 861–881.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • House of Commons. (2006) Delivering Front Line Capability to the RAF: Third Report of Session 2005–06. London: House of Commons; Defence Committee.

  • House of Commons. (2009) Helicopter Capability: Eleventh Report of Session 2008–09. London: House of Commons; Defence Committee.

  • Jones, T. (1996) Attack Helicopter Operations in Urban Terrain. School of Advanced Military Studies: Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, US Army Command and General Staff College, pp. 324–374.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karr, H. (1958) A method of estimating spare-part essentiality. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 5 (1): 29–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khair-Abaneh, M. (1999) The role of attack helicopters in modern warfare. Military Technology 5: 25–27.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, H. and Wang, P. (2007) Bullwhip effect analysis in supply chain for demand forecasting technology. Systems Engineering – Theory & Practice 27 (7): 26–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macy, R. (1945) Forecasting demand for U.S. army supplies in wartime. Journal of Marketing 10 (2): 156–164.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmoud, E., DeRoeck, R., Brown, R. and Rice, G. (1992) Bridging the gap between theory and practice in forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 8 (2): 251–267.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Makridakis, S. (1996) Forecasting: Its role and value for planning and strategy. International Journal of Forecasting 12 (4): 513–537.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Markland, R. (1970) A comparative study of demand forecasting techniques for military helicopter spare parts. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 17 (1): 103–119.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meadows, M. (1996) An evaluation to using the noise-to-signal ratio to determine the smoothing constant exponential smoothing for inventory control. Unpublished MSc thesis, Naval Postgraduate School.

  • Michaels, L. (1999) The making of a lean aerospace supply chain. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal 4 (3): 135–144.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, W. and Gaetano, M. (1989) Depot level maintenance forecasting techniques. Air Force Logistics Command, Materiel Analysis.

  • Moulton, J. (1971) Defence planning: The uncertainty factor. Long Range Planning 3: 50–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NAO. (2008) Chinook Mk3 Helicopters. HC 512 Session 2007–2008, http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/nao_reports/07-08/0708512.pdf, accessed 4 August 2009.

  • NAO. (2009) Support to High Intensity Operations. HC 508 Session 2008–2009, http://www.nao.org.uk/idoc.ashx?docId=cfde0ac3-515e-4fa5-87c8-4adb56c05e25&version=-1, accessed 4 August 2009.

  • O'Brien, D. (2006) Analysis of computational modelling techniques for complete Rotorcraft configurations. Unpublished PhD thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology.

  • Regattieri, A., Gamberi, M., Gamberini, R. and Manzini, R. (2005) Managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts. Journal of Air Transport Management 11 (6): 426–431.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roman, S., Petrusha, R. and Kotary, N. (2002) Writing Excel Macros with VBA. Sebastopol, CA. Pub. O’Reilly.

    Google Scholar 

  • Russell, W. (1986) Strategic planning for the armed force. Long Range Planning 19: 41–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon, S. (2001) The art of military logistics – Moving to dynamic supply chain. Communications of the ACM 44: 62–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Syntetos, A. (2007) A note on managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts. Journal of Air Transport Management 13 (3): 166–167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Syntetos, A., Boylan, J. and Disney, S. (2009) Forecasting for inventory planning: A 50 year review. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60: 149–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tysseland, B. (2009) Spare parts optimization process and results: OPUS10 cases in the Norwegian Defence. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management 39 (1): 8–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vandewalle, N., Ausloos, M. and Boveroux, P. (1999) The moving averages demystified. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 269 (1: 1): 170–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wallstrom, P. (2009) Evaluation of forecasting techniques and forecast errors- with focus on intermittent demand. Licentiate thesis: Lulea University of Technology.

  • Wang, T. and Hu, J. (2008) An inventory control system for products with optional components under service level and budget constraints. European Journal of Operational Research 189 (1): 41–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White, C. (1993) Analyses of spares for new weapons systems using Markov chains. European Journal of Operational Research 66 (1): 124–134.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willemain, T., Smart, C., Shockor, J. and DeSautels, P. (1994) Forecasting intermittent demand in manufacturing: A comparative evaluation of Croston's method. International Journal of Forecasting 10 (4): 529–538.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winklhofer, H., Diamantopoulos, A. and Witt, S. (1996) Forecasting practice: A review of the empirical literature and an agenda for future research. International Journal of Forecasting 12 (2): 193–221.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Withington, T. (2008) Maintenance on the fly. Defence Management Journal 43: 29–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wong, L., Bliese, A. and McGurk, D. (2003) Military leadership: A context specific review. The Leadership Quarterly 14: 657–692.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Appendix

Appendix

The VBA Coding

illustration

figure b

Nomenclature

illustration

figure a

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Downing, M., Chipulu, M., Ojiako, U. et al. Supply chain forecasting for the UK Chinook fleet. OR Insight 24, 110–130 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1057/ori.2011.2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ori.2011.2

Keywords

Navigation