A Bayesian Approach to the Two-period Style-goods Inventory Problem with Single Replenishment and Heterogeneous Poisson Demands

Abstract

This paper presents a model of the two-period style-goods inventory problem for a firm which stocks many hundreds of distinctive items having heterogeneous Poisson demands. The model uses a Bayesian procedure for forecast and probability revisions based on an aggregation-by-items scheme. These revised forecasts are then incorporated into a model which is used to derive the optimal inventory-stocking policies which maximize expected profit during the season. The model is illustrated using an actual case study of inventory planning for unframed poster art.