Abstract
The paper tests Hogan and Doyle's (2007, 2008) framework for examining critical junctures. This framework sought to incorporate the concept of ideational change in understanding critical junctures. Until its development, frameworks utilized in identifying critical junctures were subjective, seeking only to identify crisis, and subsequent policy changes, arguing that one invariably led to the other, as both occurred around the same time. Hogan and Doyle (2007, 2008) hypothesized ideational change as an intermediating variable in their framework, determining if, and when, a crisis leads to radical policy change. Here we test this framework on cases similar to, but different from, those employed in developing the exemplar. This will enable us determine whether the framework's relegation of ideational change to a condition of crisis holds, or, if ideational change has more importance than is ascribed to it by this framework. This will also enable us determined if the framework itself is robust, and fit for the purposes it was designed to perform — identifying the nature of policy change.
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Notes
The Irish Times, 3 February 1987, p. 6.
Irish Independent, 4 February 1987, p. 8.
The Economist, 24–30 January 1987, pp. 53–55.
ibid., 3–9 October 1987.
The Irish Times, 12 February 1987.
Irish Independent, 17 February 1987.
The Irish Press, 15 February 1987.
The Central Bank of Ireland, Quarterly Bulletin, Summer 1987, p. 7.
The Irish Times, 2 February, 1987.
ibid., 12 February, 1987.
Irish Independent, 14 February 1987, p. 8.
The Irish Times, 11 February 1987, p. 10.
ibid., 4 February, 1987.
Irish Independent, 16 February 1987.
The Economist Intelligence Unit, ‘Ireland: Country Profile 1991–92’ (1992), p. 6.
The Guardian, 13 September 1991, p. 5.
The Economist, 21 September, 1991, p. 33.
The Times, 11 June 1991, p. 4.
Time International, 30 September 1991, Vol. 138, No. 14, p. 21.
The Times, 11 June 1991, p. 4.
The Economist, 7 September 1991, p. 38.
Washington Post, 18 September 1991, p. A18.
The Guardian, 13 September 1991, p. 5.
Investors Chronicle, 11 October 1991, p. 68.
Aftonbladet, 13 September 1991, p. 5.
Svenska Dagbladet, 5 September 1991, p. 3.
Herald Sun, 14 October 1991, p. 42.
The Gazette, 21 September 1991, p. B1.
Christian Science Monitor, 22 October 1991, p. 3.
Newsweek, 2 December 1991, p. 64.
The Financial Times, 23 October 1991, p. v.
The Irish Times, 9 June 1981, p. 7.
Irish Independent, 14 February 1987, p. 8.
ibid., 11 February 1987.
Irish Independent, 11 February 1987.
The Irish Times, 11 February 1987, p. 10.
ibid., 3 February 1987.
The Times, 7 February 1987.
The Irish Times, 2 February 1987.
ibid., 2 February 1987.
ibid., 5 February 1987, p. 8.
Irish Independent, 13 February 1987.
Financial Times, 1 April 1987.
The Irish Times, 10 October 1987.
ibid., 17 October 1987.
The New York Times, 16 September 1991, p. 1.
Financial Times, 23 October 1991, p. v.
Business Week, 20 September 1991, p. 41.
The Economist, 31 August 1991, p. 83.
Christian Science Monitor, 22 October 1991, p. 3.
Dagens Industri, 15 September 1991, p. 1.
Agence France Presse, 6 December 1991.
Financial Times, 23 October 1991, p. v.
Christian Science Monitor, 25 October 1991, p. 1.
Svenska Dagbladet, 14 September 1991, p. 2.
Svenska Dagbladet, 16 September 1991, p. 1.
Financial Times, 17 September 1991, p. 3.
The Guardian, 13 September 1991, p. 5.
Financial Times, 17 September 1991, p. 3.
The Guardian, 13 September 1991, p. 5.
Investors Chronicle, 11 October 1991, p. 68.
European Report, 23 October 1991, p. 1.
The Economist, 16 November 1991, p. 62.
Financial Times, 13 November 1991, p .2.
The New York Times, 6 October 1991, p. 11.
Financial Times, 13 November 1991, p. 2.
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Appendices
Appendix A
Macro-economic Crisis Observable Implications
O1. If annual GDP growth (Pei and Adesnik, 2000); GDP growth per capita; and GDP growth averaged over 5 years were stagnant or negative, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O2. If GNI per capita PPP growth was stagnant or negative, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O3. If national debt, as a percentage of GDP, was above 100 per cent, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O4. If national debt, as a percentage of GDP, was increasing at above 15 per cent, per annum, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O5. If the importation of goods and services and the level of trade openness declined, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O6. If FDI inflows and FDI inward stock declined, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O7. If gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP declined, then economy may have been in crisis.
O8. If the annual inflation rate was above 15 per cent (Pei and Adesnik, 2000), then the economy may have been in crisis.
O9. If the annual interest rate was above 15 per cent, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O10. If the annual unemployment rate was above 15 per cent, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O11. If opinion polls regarded the economic in crisis, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O12. If the national/international media regarded the economy in crisis, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O13. If economic and political commentators regarded the economy in crisis, then the economy may have been in crisis.
O14. If the central bank regarded the economy in crisis, the economy may have been in crisis.
O15. If both domestic and international organizations (OECD) regarded the economy in crisis, the economy may have been in crisis.
O16. If elected representatives regarded the economy in crisis, the economy may have been in crisis.
O17. If government pronouncements on the economy were consistent with a crisis management approach, the economy may have been in crisis.
Appendix B
Idea Generation Observable Implications
Ideational Collapse
O1. The media questions the efficacy of the current model and/or specific policy areas.
O2. Opposition political parties critique the current model and propose alternative ideas – at election time their platform will be built around these alternatives.
O3. Civil society organizations, for example, labour unions, employer organizations, consumer groups, etc. critique the current model, reflecting Hall's (1989, p. 12) coalition-centred approach.
O4. Widespread public dissatisfaction with the current paradigm, observable through opinion polls, protests, and so on.
O5. External or international organizations critique the current model and/or actively disseminate alternative ideas.
New Ideational Consolidation
O6. A clear set of alternative ideas, developed by policy entrepreneurs, is evident.
O7. A clear change agent (political entrepreneur) injecting new ideas into the policy arena is evident.
O8. The Political Entrepreneur combines a mixture of interests to produce consensus around a replacement paradigm.
Appendix C
Policy Change Observable Implications
O1. If economic policy instrument settings changed (swiftly; for longer than one government's term of office), there may have been a radical change in government economic policy.
O2. If the instruments of economic policy changed (swiftly; for longer than one government's term of office), there may have been a radical change in government economic policy.
O3. If the hierarchy of goals behind economic policy changed (swiftly; for longer than one government's term of office), there may have been a radical change in government economic policy.
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Hogan, J., Doyle, D. A comparative framework: How broadly applicable is a ‘rigorous’ critical junctures framework?. Acta Polit 44, 211–240 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2008.36
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2008.36