The interrelationship amid carbon emissions, tourism, economy, and energy use in Brazil

Abstract

Tourism serves as a crucial means of funding national development and ensuring the sustainability of local livelihoods in growing countries such as Brazil. Nevertheless, the accelerated growth of tourism in various nations might lead to significant environmental consequences due to heightened energy consumption. This surge in energy usage contributes to the exacerbation of global warming through the amplified release of carbon dioxide (CO₂). In light of the increasingly evident impacts of climate change on the natural environment, a multitude of endeavors have been undertaken with the aim of attaining ecological sustainability. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic effects of economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism on carbon emissions in Brazil by analyzing time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019. The stationarity of data was assessed through the application of unit root tests, while an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was employed to analyze the relationship between the components, accounting for both the long-term and short-term dynamics. The empirical results indicate that a 1% rise in economic growth, energy consumption, and tourist arrivals leads to environmental deterioration by causing a respective increase in CO₂ emissions of 1.37%, 1.06%, and 0.57% in the near term, and 0.72%, 0.62%, and 0.16% in the long term. This article presents policy ideas aimed at achieving carbon neutrality in Brazil by increasing the utilization of renewable energy sources, while simultaneously fostering sustainable tourism as a means to enhance the country’s economy.

Highlights

•This study investigated the tourism-economy-energy-environment nexus in Brazil.

•The econometric analysis revealed that tourism, energy use, and economic growth increase CO₂ emissions.

•This article offers policy suggestions to achieve sustainable tourism and carbon neutrality.

Graphical Abstract

1 Introduction

The topic of global warming and climate change has become a significant concern in the twenty-first century as a result of ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), primarily CO₂, stemming from the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation (Nunes 2023). The quantity of CO₂ emissions has approximately doubled since the onset of the 1960s, establishing it as the predominant factor contributing to global warming (Raihan et al. 2022a). The adverse consequences of global warming would exert detrimental repercussions on various societal domains, encompassing the economy, governance, societal norms, and geopolitical dynamics. The impact of global warming and environmental changes has resulted in the exposure of a significant number of individuals to various risks, including malnutrition, illness, flooding, and limited access to clean water (Raihan et al. 2022b).

The tourism sector has emerged as a significant driver of economic growth for both developed and developing nations during the last 40 years, exerting a highly positive influence on global economic expansion (Raihan 2024). Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the travel and tourism sector played a significant role in global employment growth, contributing to the creation of one-fifth of all new positions worldwide between 2014 and 2019. Furthermore, this industry accounted for 10.3% of total employment, equivalent to 334 million jobs, and 10.4% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), amounting to US$ 10 trillion, in the year 2019. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC 2023), the travel and tourism industry sector continued to provide a significant contribution of 7.6% to the global GDP even in the aftermath of the epidemic. Tourism-related enterprises, encompassing sectors such as hospitality, accommodation, and catering, generate employment opportunities that effectively mitigate unemployment rates and foster growth in both manufacturing and service sectors. Consequently, these contributions significantly bolster the economies of both developed and developing nations (Movono and Scheyvens 2022; Khizar et al. 2023). Therefore, tourism has a pivotal role in fostering economic growth, and its resurgence is crucial in mitigating the economic challenges precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although the economic advantages of heightened tourism are evident, it is important to acknowledge the potential inadvertent consequences on the environment. One such consequence is the escalation of carbon emissions resulting from tourists’ utilization of energy for transportation, lodging, and recreational pursuits (Adebayo et al. 2023). The tourism industry, which heavily relies on energy consumption, has a direct influence on climate change due to the associated carbon emissions (Nwaeze et al. 2023). Consequently, tourism has a substantial role in exerting both direct and indirect effects on the local ecology as well as the global ecosystem (Aziz et al. 2020; Ehigiamusoe et al. 2023). Tourism produces around 5% of global CO₂ emissions. Transportation accounts for 75% of the sector’s emissions (of which 50% are from air transport), while accommodation accounts for 22% and rest of the activity-related tourism account for 4%. While tourism is not regarded a particularly polluting activity, estimates for tourism expansion indicate that emissions from tourism activities will more than quadruple by 2035 (Jiaqi et al. 2022). The relationship between home energy consumption and economic and transportation activities is of great importance. This connection highlights the interdependence between the expansion of the tourism industry and the generation of carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, concerns have been raised regarding the potential adverse consequences stemming from the overconsumption of energy within the tourism industry.

On the other hand, the UNWTO has recognized tourism as a significant catalyst for enhancing coastal environments, transportation systems, and general infrastructure. These improvements contribute to the advancement of inclusive economic growth in both developed and developing nations. A number of nations have adopted green tax policies and levies on tourism-related endeavors with the aim of generating funds for environmental management and preservation. While there may be a lack of specific data, the primary purpose of the profits generated is to mitigate the negative effects of tourism and safeguard marine and coastal habitats. Additionally, the resulting funds play a role in fostering the socioeconomic advancement of local populations. Research on the views of sustainability in the context of tourism holds significant importance for emerging nations due to their heavy reliance on tourism as a catalyst for economic growth and development. These economies are particularly susceptible to environmental degradation, exploitation, and the adverse impacts of rising sea levels (Jahanger et al. 2023). Sustainable tourism has the potential to safeguard environmental preservation, enhance the well-being and educational opportunities within communities, and mitigate poverty in various destinations. The concept of sustainable tourism has been widely embraced as a means to address and harmonize several dimensions of historical tourism, tourism administration, societal challenges, and economic progress.

Tourism has the potential to serve as a catalyst for the attainment of sustainable development goals (SDGs) provided that it contributes resources to the communities hosting it and does not undermine the capacity of future generations to fulfill their own requirements. This necessitates the adoption of sustainable practices in the pursuit of tourism. The preservation of sustainability in the tourism industry is of utmost significance and warrants careful consideration, as this sector possesses the capacity to exert adverse impacts on both the natural environment and local economies. Consequently, it has the potential to marginalize local populations and hinder, rather than facilitate, inclusive development (Chen 2023). The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development encompasses various references to tourism. Specifically, SDG Target 8.9 focuses on the promotion of sustainable tourism that generates employment opportunities and fosters the preservation of local culture and products. SDG Target 12.b emphasizes the need to monitor the developmental effects on sustainable tourism, particularly in relation to sustainable consumption and production. Lastly, SDG Target 14.7 aims to enhance the economic advantages for developing nations through the sustainable utilization of marine resources, including tourism. Tourism possesses the capacity to indirectly contribute to all other SDGs. For example, it is crucial in the context of poverty reduction as it serves as a significant means of generating employment opportunities and revenue (Abbas et al. 2023).

The intricate interplay among tourism, economic development, energy consumption, and ecological sustainability has garnered considerable attention from a substantial body of scholars. Several scholarly investigations have examined the impact of tourism, economic growth, and energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in various countries or country clusters. These studies have revealed that tourism can potentially yield both favorable and unfavorable consequences on pollution levels within a specific region (Nwaeze et al. 2023; Ullah et al. 2023). Although prior studies have provided theoretical insights into the relationship between tourism and reduced air quality, there is a limited understanding of the specific impact of tourism on CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, a dearth of research exists about the environmental impact of tourism in developing nations such as Brazil, particularly by employing econometric methodologies. Such studies are crucial in offering valuable insights for formulating sustainable tourism policies in Brazil. There exists a notable research gap pertaining to the examination of the correlation between tourism and carbon emissions, particularly in the context of striving towards carbon neutrality and the SDGs. Hence, the primary objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic effects of foreign visitor arrivals, economic growth, and energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in Brazil. This is achieved by analyzing the annual time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.

The current research selected Brazil as the focal point for examining the relationship between tourism and CO₂ emissions within the context of the energy-economy-environment framework due to various factors. Brazil’s contribution to climate change is noteworthy and distinctive due to its status as the 9th largest global economy and its possession of a highly diversified ecology. According to the World Bank (2023), Brazil possesses the most substantial economy in South America, as evidenced by its GDP of USD 1.92 trillion and GDP per capita of USD 8,918 in the year 2022. The economy of Brazil is predominantly characterized by its industrial sector and investment activities, with a significant dependence on energy consumption. In order to address its increasing energy requirements, Brazil relies on the utilization of fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas, and coal. The escalation in the utilization of fossil fuel energy results in a significant upsurge in CO₂ emissions. The nation exhibits significant apprehension regarding the escalating emission intensity, particularly originating from the energy sector. Brazil ranks as the tenth greatest energy consumer globally and holds the position of the third largest energy consumer in the Western Hemisphere, following the United States and Canada. The tourism sector in Brazil is seeing significant growth and plays a crucial role in the economic development of various regions within the country. According to the World Bank (2023), the nation received approximately 6.5 million international tourists in the year 2019, positioning it as the second most visited country in South America in terms of international tourist arrivals. In 2019, the travel and tourism sector in Brazil accounted for 8% of the country’s total GDP and provided employment opportunities for approximately 7.5 million individuals. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Brazil currently ranks as the twelfth largest producer of CO₂ globally. Furthermore, the escalating energy requirements associated with economic endeavors are anticipated to result in a subsequent increase in carbon emissions in the coming years. Nevertheless, Brazil has made a firm commitment to decrease its emissions by 37% by the year 2025 and by 50% by the year 2030. This commitment is in line with its overarching objective of attaining carbon neutrality by the year 2050. The implementation of suitable policies and action plans is of paramount importance in order to attain climatic objectives and ensure environmental sustainability. An intricate empirical examination of the interplay between tourism, economic growth, energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions in Brazil has the potential to yield comprehensive understandings that can inform the implementation of suitable policies aimed at mitigating carbon emissions and attaining climate objectives, all while stimulating the nation’s economy through sustainable tourism.

The primary value of this study is in its ability to effectively reconcile the negative repercussions of tourism, such as pollution, with its positive impacts, such as economic growth, within a comprehensive framework that also takes into account energy consumption. This research adds to the growing body of literature on the capacity of decarbonization to facilitate emission reductions and achieve carbon neutrality through the implementation of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) strategy. The superiority of the ARDL model over other conventional cointegration approaches lies in its ability to effectively capture the environmental degradation function by incorporating the mixed integration of the series, hence enabling the modeling of a long-term connection. Moreover, a number of unit root tests and diagnostic tests were utilized to assess the accuracy of the findings. The findings would indicate whether there is a necessity for the Brazilian tourism sector to implement measures aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and productivity. The variability of carbon emissions or environmental degradation resulting from tourism activities is contingent upon the type of energy utilized. The study made a significant contribution by emphasizing the need of promoting clean energy and energy-efficient technology, as well as financing renewable energy technologies, within the context of tourism operations in Brazil. This approach has the potential to contribute to the achievement of SDG 7 and the goal of carbon neutrality.

The outcomes of this research would provide valuable insights for policymakers in Brazil and other developing nations seeking to leverage the potential of tourism. Furthermore, this study serves to increase awareness regarding the mitigation of pollution, effective waste management practices, and the provision of financial support for the preservation of Brazil’s cultural heritage sites. These efforts are expected to contribute to the growth of international tourism and simultaneously achieve sustainable economic development, promote sustainable patterns of consumption and production, implement measures to combat climate change, and ensure the sustainable utilization of natural resources. These objectives align with the SDGs 8, 12, 13, and 14. Nevertheless, in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a significant surge in the growth of tourism on a global scale, potentially offering nations a means to alleviate their economic challenges. Hence, an integrated analysis encompassing tourism, economy, energy, and emissions has the capacity to effectively tackle Brazil’s national development concerns. Moreover, such a study holds promise as a foundational resource for informing the formulation of national policies centered on emission reduction, thereby facilitating Brazil’s pursuit of carbon neutrality. The results obtained from this inquiry possess practical implications for the assessment of environmental policies and the subsequent development of policies in order to equip Brazil for a global climate scenario of 1.5 °C. This entails enhancing policy frameworks and implementing strategic measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, thereby safeguarding sustainable development and long-term environmental well-being. This study advocates for the exploration of the interconnections between tourism, economics, energy, and environment in additional emerging nations, with the aim of achieving a harmonious equilibrium between economic expansion driven by tourism and the preservation of environmental quality. The results of this study have the potential to offer suggestions and recommendations to other developing nations that aspire to formulate effective approaches for attaining sustainable tourism, while concurrently enhancing plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The subsequent sections of the article are structured in the following manner. The introduction section of the paper is followed by the literature review, in which relevant research studies have been discussed. The following section, referred to as Methodology, encompasses the presentation of data, theoretical framework, empirical model, and analysis procedures. Subsequently, the “Results and discussion” section presents the analytical results and a comprehensive discussion pertaining to the conclusions of the study. Subsequently, the concluding section of the manuscript includes the conclusion, policy suggestions, study limitations, and prospects for future investigation.

2 Literature review

The issue of global environmental degradation resulting from climate change is a significant concern. Multiple scholarly investigations have been conducted to explore diverse origins of carbon emissions as a potential strategy for mitigating further environmental harm (Raihan et al. 2022c). The extant body of literature has investigated the correlation between carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth. However, there is a dearth of research exploring the impact of economic policy uncertainty and human activities, such as tourism, on the carbon function, which warrants further investigation. Prior research has established that tourism has a significant role in contributing to environmental degradation. Consequently, there has recently been a surge of interest among legislators and experts in investigating the impact of tourism on the natural environment. Pigram (1980) conducted a study examining the relationship between tourism and the environment, revealing that it can potentially provide either good, neutral, or negative consequences for environmental quality. Multiple studies have provided empirical evidence supporting the assertion that tourism exerts a constructive and noteworthy impact on CO₂ emissions, whereby tourism activities contribute to an increase in CO₂ emissions. Conversely, certain research has indicated that tourism contributes to the enhancement of environmental quality through the mitigation of CO₂ emissions.

Tourism, like other economic activities, exerts a direct influence on the condition of the environment. The potential cause of long-term increases in CO₂ emissions could be attributed to the phenomenon of tourism. To be more precise, the increase in energy consumption stemming from this phenomenon has a direct correlation with CO₂ emissions. The study conducted by León et al. (2014) employed a STIRPAT methodology on a balanced panel dataset comprising both developed and less developed countries. The data covered the time span from 1998 to 2006. The findings indicate that the tourism industry has a substantial role in the generation of carbon dioxide emissions, encompassing both less developed and developed nations. Additionally, Ochoa-Moreno et al. (2022) identified a significant correlation between tourism and CO₂ emissions throughout the period spanning from 1995 to 2018 in a representative sample of 20 nations in Latin America. In their study, Zaman et al. (2016) examined the correlation among economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, tourism development, and energy demand in a panel consisting of three diverse regions worldwide: East Asia & Pacific, European Union, and high-income OECD and Non-OECD countries. The study findings indicate that CO₂ emissions are attributed to both tourism and energy consumption in a consistent manner. According to the findings of Balli et al. (2019), utilization of data spanning from 1995 to 2014 revealed a positive correlation between economic growth, tourism, and the rise in CO₂ emissions among Mediterranean countries. In their study, Durbarry and Seetanah (2015) conducted an analysis of the relationship between tourism and travel activities and their implications for climate change in Mauritius. The findings of their research revealed a positive correlation between the influx of tourists and the subsequent economic growth, and the concurrent increase in CO₂ emissions.

Nwaeze et al. (2023) conducted a study that examined the interconnections between tourism developments, CO₂ emissions, economic growth, and energy demand in the European Union (EU) using data from 1995 to 2018. The study employed the Panel ARDL framework to control for various factors. The results of the study indicated that economic growth, tourism, and energy consumption have a positive impact on CO₂ emissions. Nosheen et al. (2021) conducted a study employing the DOLS approach and analyzing time series data spanning from 1995 to 2017. The findings of their research indicate that tourism, economic expansion, and energy consumption have had a significant role in exacerbating environmental deterioration in the Asian region, mostly through the amplification of CO₂ emissions. Balsalobre-Lorente et al. (2020) demonstrated that the impact of climate change resulting from CO₂ emissions is amplified by the utilization of energy, the tourism sector, and the economic expansion observed within the nations belonging to the OECD over the period spanning from 1994 to 2014. Selvanathan et al. (2021) conducted a study in South Asia to examine the interconnectedness of tourism, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. The researchers employed the ARDL model and analyzed data spanning from 1990 to 2014. The research findings indicate that there is a favorable correlation between tourism, energy consumption, economic growth, and long-term CO₂ emissions. According to Khan et al. (2020), the utilization of data spanning from 1990 to 2016 for a total of 51 nations participating in the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), showed that CO₂ emissions are positively influenced by tourism, economic growth, and energy consumption. According to the findings of Lee and Brahmasrene (2016), there exists positive correlations between carbon emissions and many factors including tourism, energy consumption, and economic development in the sub-Saharan African region.

Raihan and Tuspekova (2022a) conducted an empirical analysis utilizing the DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR methodologies on time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019. Their findings indicate a positive relationship between tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions in Singapore. Sharif et al.’s (2017) study examined the relationship between CO₂ emissions, tourist arrivals, and economic growth in Pakistan. The researchers collected time series data spanning from 1972 to 2013. The findings derived from the use of the ARDL, FMOLS, and DOLS estimators indicate that the carbon emissions of Pakistan are significantly influenced by both economic growth and the influx of visitors. In addition, the study conducted by Ali et al. (2020) examined the effects of tourist arrivals, economic growth, and energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in Pakistan from 1981 to 2017. The researchers employed the ARDL approach to analyze the data. The study revealed that there exists a negative relationship between economic growth, foreign tourism, and energy consumption on one hand, and environmental quality on the other. According to the study conducted by Katircioglu et al. (2020), the analysis of data spanning from 1977 to 2015 revealed that there is a positive relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism activities, and the levels of CO₂ emissions in Cyprus. The study conducted by Sekrafi and Sghaier (2018) aimed to examine the correlation between tourism development, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Tunisia over a period of 40 years, from 1974 to 2014. The researchers employed the ARDL approach in their analysis. The research findings indicate that the impact of tourism on the environment is primarily mediated by the indirect influence of energy use.

Solarin (2014) conducted a study utilizing data from the years 1972 to 2010 in Malaysia. The findings of the study indicated that there is a positive relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism. According to the findings of Adebayo et al. (2023), an analysis of data spanning from 1995 to 2018 revealed a positive correlation between tourist arrivals, economic growth, energy use, and environmental deterioration in Thailand. Zhang and Zhang (2021) employed a dataset of 30 Chinese provinces spanning the temporal range of 2000 to 2017. The study presented findings indicating a positive correlation between economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism, and the levels of CO₂ emissions. Nepal et al. (2019) conducted a study utilizing data spanning from 1975 to 2014, wherein they observed a positive correlation between tourist arrivals, economic growth, energy consumption, and environmental deterioration in Nepal. Eyuboglu and Uzar (2020) conducted an analysis on the interrelationships between CO₂ emissions, tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and economic growth in Turkey. The time frame for their investigation spanned from 1960 to 2014. The findings of the study suggest that CO₂ emissions are attributable to tourism, economic expansion, and energy consumption. The study conducted by Khanal et al. (2022) examined the correlation between tourism, energy consumption, economic development, and carbon dioxide emissions within the Australian context. The researchers employed the ARDL approach, with data spanning from 1976 to 2019. The findings of the study revealed that there exists a positive and statistically significant long-term association between carbon emissions and three key factors: tourism, energy consumption, and economic growth.

Various studies have utilized the ARDL, DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR approaches with time series data to examine the relationship between economic growth, tourism, and CO₂ emissions in different countries. Specifically, Raihan et al. (2022d) found this relationship in Argentina, Raihan and Tuspekova (2022b) observed this relationship in Turkey and Raihan and Tuspekova (2022c) examined it in India. Similarly, Raihan (2023a) investigated the relationship in Chile, Raihan et al. (2023a) explored it in Thailand, and Raihan (2023b) studied it in the Philippines. Moreover, three separate studies conducted by Raihan and Tuspekova (2022d, 2022e) and Raihan et al. (2023b) employed the DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR approaches to analyze time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019. These studies found that in Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt, there is a positive relationship between tourism, economic growth, and fossil fuel energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Conversely, an increase in the use of renewable energy sources was associated with a reduction in CO₂ emissions. Jayasinghe and Selvanathan (2021) examined the correlation between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, GDP, and international tourist arrivals in India from 1991 to 2018. They employed the ARDL model framework to analyze the data. The findings of the study indicate that there is a positive relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and tourism activities, and the emission of CO₂. Furthermore, it was noted that there exists a unidirectional causality in the long run, with energy consumption, GDP, and tourist arrivals leading to an increase in CO₂ emissions.

Previous research has revealed the adverse environmental impacts associated with tourism, while other studies have indicated that tourism can contribute to a reduction in CO₂ emissions. Leitão and Lorente (2020) conducted an assessment of the relationship between economic growth, tourism arrivals, and carbon dioxide emissions in the EU. To achieve this, they employed the panel FMOLS, panel DOLS, and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-System) estimators. The results of the study indicate that there was a drop in CO₂ emissions associated with tourism arrivals, however, an increase in CO₂ emissions was observed in relation to economic growth. Furthermore, Dogan and Aslan (2017) employed various econometric techniques, including OLS-fixed-effects, FMOLS, DOLS, and the group-mean estimator, to examine the relationship between CO₂ emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, and tourism in EU member states. The research findings indicate that energy consumption has a significant role in the generation of emissions, whereas real income and tourism have a mitigating effect on CO₂ emissions. Lee and Brahmasrene (2013) conducted an analysis utilizing panel data from EU countries from 1988 to 2009. The study performed cointegration tests to examine the influence of tourism on both economic growth and CO₂ emissions. The analysis revealed a negative correlation between tourist arrivals and CO₂ emissions, indicating that a 1% increase in tourist arrivals led to a reduction of 0.11 metric tons in CO₂ emissions. The study’s findings indicate that international tourism has a positive effect on the economic growth of the EU while also contributing to the reduction of the region’s carbon emissions.

Rahman et al. (2022) conducted a study utilizing the CS-ARDL approach to examine the environmental implications of tourism in the 10 leading tourist destinations worldwide, spanning the period from 1972 to 2021. The research indicates that the utilization of fossil fuels might expedite environmental degradation, but an increase in tourism activities has a positive influence on environmental quality. The study conducted by Aziz et al. (2020) employed yearly data spanning from 1995 to 2018 for the BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The results obtained from the FMOLS and DOLS estimated indicate that there exists a negative relationship between tourism and CO₂ emissions, but economic growth has a favorable association with CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, Ullah et al. (2023) conducted a study utilizing data spanning from 1995 to 2018 to perform the CS-ARDL test. The findings of their research indicated that in the BRICS economies, an escalation in economic growth would lead to a corresponding rise in CO₂ emissions. Conversely, an upsurge in tourism within these nations was found to be associated with a reduction in CO₂ emissions. According to the study conducted by Jebli et al. (2019), it was observed that there exists a positive relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in 22 Central and South American nations during 1995–2010. Additionally, the findings of the study indicate that tourism has a role in mitigating emissions in the aforementioned countries. In their study, Akadiri et al. (2021) investigated the correlation between carbon emissions and the expansion of international tourism in the context of globalization and real income. The analysis focused on a sample of 16 island nations that have placed a high emphasis on tourism as a strategy for achieving economic development. The study spanned from 1995 to 2016. The research findings suggest that there is a negative correlation between international tourism and carbon emissions, indicating that international tourism contributes to a reduction in carbon emissions. Conversely, the study also reveals a positive correlation between real income and carbon emissions over an extended period of time, suggesting that higher levels of real income are associated with increased carbon emissions.

The research conducted by Sherafatian-Jahromi et al. (2017) reveals that there is a positive correlation between economic growth and energy consumption, as well as a negative correlation between tourism and CO₂ emissions in the Southeast Asian region. Shakouri et al. (2017) investigated the impact of tourism, energy consumption, and economic development on CO₂ emissions. The researchers employed panel data analysis to analyze a specific set of Asia-Pacific nations during the period of 1995–2013. The findings derived from the panel GMM analysis revealed that there exists a positive relationship between economic growth and energy use and CO₂ emissions. Conversely, tourist arrivals were found to have a negative impact on CO₂ emissions. Wei and Lihua (2023) conducted a study utilizing data spanning from 1995 to 2018. Their findings indicate a positive correlation between carbon emissions and economic growth in the ASEAN countries. Additionally, the study reveals that eco-innovations and tourism serve as mitigating factors for CO₂ emissions. The study conducted by Voumik et al. (2023) examined the impact of tourism, economic growth, and energy intensity on CO₂ emissions in a sample of 40 Asian nations. The researchers utilized data spanning from 1995 to 2019 for their analysis. The findings of the CS-ARDL model indicate that there is a positive relationship between CO₂ emissions and both increased energy consumption and economic development. Additionally, it is suggested that tourism can potentially contribute to the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, the study conducted by Katircioğlu (2014) revealed a positive correlation between economic growth and energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, while indicating a negative relationship between tourism and CO₂ emissions within the specific context of Singapore. The study conducted by Xiangyu et al. (2021) investigated the asymmetric effects of tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and output growth on CO₂ emissions in the United States. The researchers analyzed monthly data spanning from 2000 to 2018. The study employed the QARDL methodology to demonstrate that there is a negative relationship between tourist arrivals and CO₂ emissions, indicating that an increase in tourist arrivals leads to a decrease in CO₂ emissions. Additionally, the findings indicate that an increase in energy consumption is positively associated with CO₂ emissions, suggesting that higher energy utilization contributes to an upsurge in CO₂ emissions. Yue et al. (2021) employed the bootstrapping ARDL methodology to demonstrate that the tourism sector in Thailand has a mitigating effect on environmental degradation through the reduction of CO₂ emissions.

Paramati et al. (2017a) utilized time series data for the EU to ascertain that tourism has a positive effect on CO₂ emissions in the Eastern EU region, while it has a negative effect in the Western EU region. In a separate study, Ghosh (2020) employed the FMOLS, DOLS, and PMG estimators to investigate the impacts of tourism on environmental quality. The analysis was conducted using a panel dataset comprising 95 countries, with annual observations spanning from 1995 to 2014. The research revealed a detrimental effect of tourism on CO₂ emissions in high-income nations, whereas a favorable effect of tourism on CO₂ emissions was observed in middle-income nations. The study conducted by Azam et al. (2018) investigated the impact of tourist arrivals on environmental pollution resulting from CO₂ emissions in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore from 1990 to 2014. The findings of the study indicate that tourism exerts a notable positive impact on environmental pollution in Malaysia, while a negative correlation between tourism and environmental pollution was seen in Thailand and Singapore. In a study conducted by Dogru et al. (2020), it was demonstrated that the impact of tourist development on CO₂ emissions varies across different countries. Specifically, the findings revealed that tourism development has a detrimental and statistically significant influence on CO₂ emissions in Canada, Czechia, and Turkey. Conversely, in Italy, Luxembourg, and the Slovak Republic, tourism development was found to have a positive and statistically significant association with CO₂ emissions. Mehmood et al. (2022) conducted a study utilizing data spanning from 1995 to 2020, which revealed a negative correlation between tourism and CO₂ emissions in Pakistan and Nepal. Conversely, the study identified a positive relationship between tourist and CO₂ emissions in Sri Lanka and India. The study conducted by Sghaier et al. (2019) demonstrated that tourism exerts a detrimental impact on the environmental quality of Egypt, a positive effect in Tunisia and a neutral effect in Morocco.

In their study, Koçak et al. (2020) conducted an analysis to assess the influence of tourism advancements on CO₂ emissions in the nations with the highest number of visitors during the period spanning from 1995 to 2014. The findings of the study demonstrate that there is a positive correlation between tourism arrivals and CO₂ emissions, suggesting that as tourism arrivals increase, so do CO₂ emissions. Conversely, the study also reveals a negative relationship between tourism receipts and CO₂ emissions, indicating that as tourism receipts increase, CO₂ emissions tend to decrease. Furthermore, Shi et al. (2020) have documented that a 1% rise in the net influx of foreign visitors leads to a 0.072% increase in CO₂ emissions in low-income countries and a 0.059% increase in high-income nations. According to Paramati et al. (2017b), the rate at which tourism affects CO₂ emissions is declining at a more rapid pace in industrialized economies compared to emerging economies. According to a comprehensive study conducted by Balsalobre-Lorente et al. (2020), there exists a correlation between economic growth, international tourism, energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions in developed countries. The findings suggest that once economies in the tourism industry reach a certain level of improvement, international tourism can contribute to environmental enhancements.

The existing body of empirical research suggests that tourism can potentially yield both favorable and unfavorable consequences for the environment. Hence, the existing scholarly literature presents inconclusive findings about the correlation between tourist arrivals and environmental degradation, thereby preventing a definitive determination of the actual impact of tourism in Brazil. Brazil attracts around 6 million tourists annually, resulting in a significant emission of carbon dioxide. Therefore, it is imperative to assess the correlation between tourist arrivals and CO₂ emissions within the Brazilian context to fill the knowledge gap in the literature.

3 Methodology

3.1 Data

The current investigation examined CO₂ emissions as the dependent variable, with the number of tourist arrivals, economic growth, and energy use serving as explanatory variables. The study utilized annual time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019 in order to analyze the interrelationships among the variables. The data was acquired from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database (World Bank 2023). In order to verify that the data has a normal distribution, the variables are subjected to a logarithmic transformation. Table 1 displays the logarithmic representations of the variables, together with their respective units of measurement. Furthermore, Fig. 1 displays the yearly patterns of the studied variables.

Table 1 Variable descriptions

Fig. 1

Annual trends of the variables

3.2 Theoretical framework and empirical model

The literature on energy studies widely employs CO₂ emissions as a proxy for environmental contamination, specifically in relation to climate change. In theoretical terms, there exists a correlation between CO₂ emissions and both income levels and energy consumption, primarily attributable to the widespread reliance on fossil fuels within economic endeavors. Under the assumption of the market clearing condition, which posits that CO₂ emissions are equal to both economic growth and energy use, we can express Eq. (1) within the context of the conventional Marshallian demand function (Friedman 1949) at time t.

$$\textrm{Ct}=f\ \left({\textrm{Y}}_{\textrm{t}};{\textrm{E}}_{\textrm{t}}\right)$$

(1)

where C_t is the CO₂ emissions at time t, Y_t is the economic growth at time t, and E_t is the energy use at time t.

The interplay between tourism development and its effects on economic growth, energy consumption, and the environment is of considerable theoretical importance. The theoretical structure of the investigation is depicted in Fig. 2. The rise in carbon emissions can be attributed to the utilization of fossil fuel energy in various aspects of the tourism industry, including transportation, accommodation, and other associated activities. Conversely, an escalation in tourist volume could potentially lead to a heightened focus on ecotourism, green tourism, and sustainable tourism. In order to attract a larger number of international tourists, nations are augmenting their financial commitments towards the enhancement of natural reserves, forests, and parks. The aforementioned endeavors result in the adverse consequences of tourism on carbon emissions, as well as the beneficial effects on environmental quality. The existing body of literature suggests that foreign visitor arrivals can potentially exert both positive and negative impacts on environmental quality. These impacts are mostly attributed to the specific energy sources employed in tourism activities and the level of investment in sustainable tourism practices. This study aims to assess the impact of tourism on CO₂ emissions in order to ascertain the true extent of tourism’s influence on Brazil’s environmental quality. The present study proposes the following functional correlations that are induced by tourism:

Fig. 2

The theoretical framework of the study

$$\textrm{Ct}=f\ \left({\textrm{Y}}_{\textrm{t}};{\textrm{E}}_{\textrm{t}};{\textrm{T}}_{\textrm{t}}\right)$$

(2)

where T_t is the international tourism at time t.

Furthermore, Eq. (3) represents the empirical model:

$${\textrm{C}}_{\textrm{t}}={\uptau}_0+{\uptau}_1{\textrm{Y}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\uptau}_2{\textrm{E}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\uptau}_3{\textrm{T}}_{\textrm{t}}$$

(3)

Equation (3) can be expanded into the econometric model represented by Eq. (4).

$${\textrm{C}}_{\textrm{t}}={\uptau}_0+{\uptau}_1{\textrm{Y}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\uptau}_2{\textrm{E}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\uptau}_3{\textrm{T}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\upvarepsilon}_{\textrm{t}}$$

(4)

where τ₀ is intercept and ε_t is error term. Besides, τ₁, τ₂, and τ₃ denote the coefficients.

Moreover, the logarithmic organization of Eq. (4) can be represented as follows in Eq. (5):

$${\textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}}={\uptau}_0+{\uptau}_1{\textrm{LY}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\uptau}_2{\textrm{LE}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\uptau}_3{\textrm{LT}}_{\textrm{t}}+{\upvarepsilon}_{\textrm{t}}$$

(5)

where L_t is the logarithmic form of CO₂ emissions at time t, LY_t is the logarithmic form of economic growth at time t, LE_t is the logarithmic form of energy use at time t, and LT_t is the logarithmic form of tourism at time t.

3.3 Data stationarity

In order to mitigate the occurrence of spurious regression, it is imperative to employ a unit root test. The procedure of assessing the stationarity of variables in regression involves differencing them and utilizing stationary processes to estimate the equation of interest. The empirical literature recognizes the need of establishing the order of integration prior to examining the presence of cointegration among variables (Raihan et al. 2023c). Several studies have emphasized the importance of employing multiple unit root tests to assess the integration order of a series (Raihan 2023c). This is due to the varying efficacy of unit root tests, which is contingent upon the size of the sample. The current study employed three statistical tests, namely the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test developed by Dickey and Fuller (1979), the Dickey-Fuller generalized least squares (DF-GLS) test proposed by Elliott et al. (1996), and the Phillips-Perron (P-P) test introduced by Phillips and Perron (1988), to identify the presence of an autoregressive unit root. The researchers employed the unit root test in this study to verify that none of the variables surpassed the level of integration, and to provide justification for utilizing the ARDL technique instead of conventional cointegration methods.

3.4 ARDL approach

The ARDL limits test established by Pesaran et al. (2001) was utilized in this work to capture the presence of cointegration among the series. The ARDL limits test for cointegration assessment offers several advantages compared to alternative single-equation methods. Firstly, the utilization of the ARDL limits test is applicable in cases when time series data exhibit a mixed order of integration. This test is advantageous as it does not impose any mandatory assumptions and requires all variables to be included in the analysis in the same order. Additionally, it is notably more dependable, especially when dealing with a limited number of observations (Raihan et al. 2023d). Furthermore, it provides a precise assessment of the long-term framework. Hence, the ARDL limits testing methodology can be applied regardless of whether the underlying ARDL system is integrated of order 2 (I(2)), and the cointegration order is either integrated of order 0 (I(0)) or integrated of order 1 (I(1)). The ARDL bounds test is represented by Eq. (6) in the following manner:

$${\Delta \textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}}={\uptau}_0+{\uptau}_1{\textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\uptau}_2{\textrm{LY}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\uptau}_3{\textrm{LE}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\uptau}_4{\textrm{LT}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_1{\Delta \textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_2{\Delta \textrm{LY}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_3{\Delta \textrm{LE}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_4{\Delta \textrm{LT}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+{\upvarepsilon}_{\textrm{t}}$$

(6)

where Δ is first difference operator; q is the optimal lag length.

The ARDL limits test is based on the F-distribution and its critical values were originally suggested by Pesaran and Timmermann (2005). The estimate process commences by employing Eq. (6) and employing OLS to facilitate the F-test, which assesses the collective significance of the coefficients of the lagged variables. The primary objective of this approach is to assess the probability of a potential long-term association between the variables under consideration. The null hypothesis (H₀) posits that there are no cointegrating links among the regressors. The F-statistics can be compared to the critical values of the upper and lower bounds, as demonstrated in the study conducted by Pesaran et al. (2001). If the F-statistics are above the upper critical value, the null hypothesis is rejected, indicating the presence of a long-term link between the variables in question. Conversely, when the F-statistics fall below the lower critical value, the null hypothesis is deemed acceptable. In contrast, if the F-statistics fall within the lower and higher critical levels, the test results are inconclusive (Raihan 2023d).

The present study utilized the ARDL technique proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) in order to address the interplay between variables through both long- and short-term analysis. Once the presence of cointegration among the parameters has been established, the research proceeds to estimate the long-run coefficient by the use of Eq. (6) in an ARDL framework. Once the identification of long-term associations has been established, this study proceeds to estimate the error correction term (ECT) proposed by Engle and Granger (1987). The purpose of this estimation is to investigate the short-run dynamics of the variables in question, as well as the rate at which they adjust towards their long-run equilibrium. The addition of the ECT within the ARDL framework, as shown in Eq. (7), facilitates the attainment of this outcome.

$${\Delta \textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}}={\uptau}_0+{\uptau}_1{\textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\uptau}_2{\textrm{LY}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\uptau}_3{\textrm{LE}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\uptau}_4{\textrm{LT}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_1{\Delta \textrm{LC}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_2{\Delta \textrm{LY}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_3{\Delta \textrm{LE}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+\sum_{\textrm{i}=1}^{\textrm{q}}{\upgamma}_4{\Delta \textrm{LT}}_{\textrm{t}-\textrm{i}}+{\uptheta \textrm{ECT}}_{\textrm{t}-1}+{\upvarepsilon}_{\textrm{t}}$$

(7)

The speed of adjustment, denoted as θ, represents the pace at which changes occur. The first lag of the error term, denoted as ECT_t-1, is indicative of the error correction model. The predicted value of ECT often falls between the range of 0 to 1. The possibility of mitigating variance arises in situations where ECT exhibits both statistical significance and a negative effect.

This work investigated the stability tests of the coefficients through the utilization of the cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ). Furthermore, this study conducted an analysis of normality, heteroscedasticity, and serial correlation to assess the robustness of the ARDL cointegration estimation.

3.5 Flow chart of the analysis

Figure 3 illustrates the flow chart of the analytical methodologies utilized in the study to investigate the interconnections among economic growth, energy consumption, tourism, and CO₂ emissions in Brazil. Following the verification of the dataset’s normality, this study proceeded to conduct a unit root test in order to ascertain the stationarity of the data. Upon the identification of the unit roots of the variable, the study yielded evidence supporting the existence of long-term cointegration among the variables. Upon establishing the presence of long-term cointegration among the variables, the study proceeded to assess the enduring and immediate effects of economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism on CO₂ emissions in Brazil. This study aims to establish positive correlations between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, as well as tourism and CO₂ emissions.

Fig. 3

Flow chart of the analysis procedure

4 Results and discussion

Table 2 displays the results of the summary measures across variables, including statistical values obtained from several normality tests (such as skewness, probability, kurtosis, and Jarque-Bera), as well as the correlation between the variables. The dataset consists of 30 observations for each variable, representing time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019 in the context of Brazil. The mean and median values of all variables in the sample exhibit similarity, suggesting the presence of normality. Skewness values approximating 0 indicate that all variables conform to a normal distribution. The skewness analysis reveals that the data pertaining to CO₂ emissions and tourism exhibit a negative skew, whilst the statistics concerning economic growth and energy use demonstrate a positive skew. Moreover, the study utilized kurtosis as a means of assessing whether the series has a light-tailed or heavy-tailed distribution in comparison to a normal distribution. The empirical evidence suggests that all of the series exhibit platykurtosis, as their values are below 3. Furthermore, the lower values of the Jarque-Bera probability indicate that all the parameters exhibit normal distribution. Furthermore, a probability value exceeding 0.1 also signifies the normality of the collection.

Table 2 Descriptive statistics

The results of the unit root testing utilizing the ADF, DF-GLS, and P-P tests are displayed in Table 3. The findings of the study indicate that LC, LY, and LE exhibited non-stationarity at the initial level, but achieved stationarity after being differenced once in all three unit root tests. Furthermore, it was observed that LT exhibited non-stationarity at the initial level, but achieved stationarity at the first difference according to the ADF and DF-GLS tests. Conversely, the P-P test indicated that LT displayed stationarity at both the initial level and the first difference. The findings of the unit root test suggest that the series is appropriate for employing the ARDL technique. Additionally, the identification of unit roots in the variables, as shown by the ADF, DF-GLS, and P-P tests, provides justification for utilizing the ARDL bounds tests to detect the presence of cointegration among the variables.

Table 3 The results of unit root tests

Once the stationarity properties of the series have been confirmed, this study proceeds to estimate the ARDL framework. In order to perform the ARDL limits test for cointegration assessment, this study selected an appropriate lag length to compute the F-statistic based on the minimal values of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results of the ARDL bounds test are presented in Table 4, which aims to examine the presence of a cointegration relationship between the variables. The results are presented in a manner that confirms the presence of a long-term relationship between the parameters if the estimated value of the F-test exceeds both the lower and upper bounds. The results indicate that the calculated F-statistic value (5.8682) exceeds the critical upper limits at significance levels of 10%, 5%, 2.5%, and 1% for both the zero and one order, leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. This suggests the presence of a long-term link among the variables under consideration.

Table 4 Results of ARDL bounds analysis

This study examines the impact of economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism on CO₂ emissions in Brazil. The analysis used the ARDL model to estimate both the long- and short-term effects, while also assuring the presence of cointegration among the variables. Table 5 presents the estimated long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. The calculated coefficient of LY in the long run is found to be positive and statistically significant at a 5% level of significance. Similarly, the coefficient of LY in the short run is also positive and statistically significant at a higher level of significance, specifically at the 1% level. The findings indicate that a marginal rise of 1% in economic growth is associated with a corresponding increase of 1.37% and 0.72% in CO₂ emissions in the short and long term, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated coefficients of LE exhibit positive and statistically significant effects at the 1% significance level. This implies that a 1% increase in energy consumption is associated with a short-run rise of 1.06% and a long-run growth of 0.62% in CO₂ emissions within the context of Brazil. Additionally, it is estimated that a 1% rise in tourist arrivals in Brazil will result in a 0.57% increase in CO₂ emissions in the short term and a 0.16% increase in the long term. These projections are based on the statistically significant positive coefficients of LT, which are significant at the 1% level. The findings from the ARDL model demonstrate that in Brazil, the long- and short-run dynamic coefficients reveal a positive relationship between economic expansion, energy consumption, increasing tourist arrivals, and environmental deterioration, specifically in terms of elevated CO₂ emissions.

Table 5 ARDL the long- and short-run outcomes

Nevertheless, the findings of the ARDL analysis revealed that the long-term effects of tourism, energy consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions are relatively smaller compared to their short-term effects. The aforementioned phenomenon can be attributed to the increased awareness about environmental issues, advancements in environmentally friendly technology, the adoption of renewable energy sources, the promotion of sustainable lifestyles, the development of eco-friendly tourism practices, and the implementation of sustainable tourism policies. These factors have been observed to align with long-term economic growth, particularly in relation to the revenue generated by the tourism industry (Gong and Chen 2023). Additionally, the short-term dynamics of the ARDL model provide evidence of the stability of the long-term coefficient. The inclusion of ECT in short-term analysis holds academic significance within the context of time series analysis. This is primarily due to its ability to enhance comprehension of long-term dynamics by quantifying the influences that drive relationships towards long-term equilibrium through the utilization of adjustment coefficients. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated coefficient of the ECT exhibits a negative sign and is shown to be statistically significant at the 1% level. This implies that short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium are corrected by around 50% on an annual basis. Furthermore, the R² and adjusted R² coefficients obtained from the long-run estimation are 0.9777 and 0.9702, respectively. These values indicate a high level of fit between the suggested regression model and the observed data. The figures suggest that the independent variables have the potential to explain 97% of the variability observed in the change of the dependent variable.

This study included various diagnostic tests to assess the reliability of the ARDL results. Table 6 displays the diagnostic test outcomes of the ARDL model. The model exhibited no discernible functional fault. In order to assess the normality of the series, the Jarque-Bera normality test was used. The results of the Jarque-Bera test indicate that the residuals have a normal distribution, as evidenced by the calculated statistic and associated p-value. The Breusch-Godfrey Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test results indicate the absence of serial correlation. The results of the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test indicate that there is no evidence of heteroskedasticity in the data. The Ramsey RESET test provided evidence that the model is correctly defined. Furthermore, the current study utilized the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests to assess the stability of the model. Figure 4 displays the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ plots, both evaluated at a significance level of 5%. The residuals are denoted by blue lines, whilst the confidence levels are denoted by red lines. Based on the results obtained at a significance level of 5%, it can be concluded that the residuals of the analyzed variables consistently fall within the confidence intervals, hence providing evidence of the stability of the model. The diagnostic tests conducted on the ARDL model yielded findings that suggest a satisfactory fit of the model.

Table 6 The results of diagnostic tests

Fig. 4

The CUSUM and CUSUMQ plots

The economic growth in Brazil is being impeded by initiatives aimed at conserving energy and mitigating pollution. The development and implementation of an effective strategy for carbon emission reduction is of utmost importance for Brazil. The utilization of fossil fuels, such as oil, gas, and coal, in the majority of tourism-related operations for the purpose of energy production leads to substantial emissions of carbon dioxide. Consequently, the process of decarbonization is bound to have environmental consequences (Li and Dong 2022). The primary objective of this study is to ascertain the extent to which tourism contributes to the reduction of CO₂ emissions. The ARDL test results reveal that Brazil’s CO₂ emissions are significantly impacted in the long term by the growing influx of tourists. There is mounting evidence suggesting that the increasing number of tourists visiting Brazil is exerting a detrimental impact on the country’s ecosystem. The discovery aligns with the findings of Raihan and Tuspekova (2022d), who observed a positive relationship between economic development, tourism, and CO₂ emissions in Brazil. The impact of the tourist sector on global warming is significant, mostly attributed to the extensive reliance on transportation. This reliance on transportation is a direct consequence of the escalating CO₂ emissions resulting from heightened energy consumption. The relationship between increasing carbon emissions, escalating energy consumption, and expanding economic development is a crucial aspect within the discourse on global warming. The primary factors contributing to environmental degradation are economic development and energy use, which function as notable conduits.

The current investigation revealed a favorable impact of economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism on CO₂ emissions, a finding that aligns with prior studies that have also documented a positive association between economic growth, energy consumption, tourist, and CO₂ emissions. For example, Zaman et al. (2016) conducted a study focusing on nations in the East Asia and Pacific region. Balsalobre-Lorente et al. (2020) examined OECD countries in their research. Nwaeze et al. (2023) investigated EU countries in their study. Nosheen et al. (2021) analyzed the Asian region in their research. Selvanathan et al. (2021) conducted a study specifically focusing on South Asia. In the study conducted by Khan et al. (2020), the focus was on nations participating in the BRI. In the context of sub-Saharan Africa, Lee and Brahmasrene (2016) conducted a study. Eyuboglu and Uzar (2020) conducted a study on Turkey, whereas Katircioglu et al. (2020) focused on Cyprus. Sekrafi and Sghaier (2018) examined Tunisia, while Zhang and Zhang (2021) conducted research in China. In the context of India, Jayasinghe and Selvanathan (2021) conducted a study. In the context of Pakistan, Ali et al. (2020) conducted a study. Adebayo et al. (2023) investigated the situation in Thailand, while Azam et al. (2018) focused on Malaysia. Khanal et al. (2022) explored the subject in Australia, while Yorucu and Varoglu (2020) examined 23 small island countries across various continents. Nevertheless, the results of the current study are in opposition to the findings of Aziz et al. (2020) and Ullah et al. (2023), which indicated that an increase in the number of international visitors to the BRICS nations led to a reduction in CO₂ emissions, despite the fact that economic growth and energy consumption contribute to higher emissions levels. One of the intriguing findings derived from the analysis of ARDL models is that the long-term effects of economic growth, energy consumption, and tourism on carbon emissions are comparatively smaller in magnitude than their short-term effects. This phenomenon could be achieved by means of adopting a low-carbon economic model, promoting sustainable tourism practices, advancing renewable energy sources, and fostering the development of green technologies.

In the preceding three decades, Brazil has experienced a notable surge in visitor influx, accompanied by substantial development in income and energy consumption. The increase in fossil fuel usage in Brazil can be attributed to the interdependence between the expansion of the tourism industry, infrastructure advancements, import and export integration, and economic stabilization. These factors collectively contribute to the positive impact on financial growth and commercial production. As an illustration, the quantity of tourist arrivals in the year 2019 exhibited an approximate six-fold increase in comparison to the figures recorded in 1990, as reported by the World Bank (2023). Furthermore, there was an observed increase of 80% in the energy consumption of persons throughout this period. The comprehensibility of this outcome is facilitated by the positive correlation between tourist arrivals and economic activity and production, resulting in heightened energy consumption levels. The efficient functioning of tourism infrastructure, amenities, and activities necessitates the utilization of various additional energy sources such as oil and electricity. Furthermore, the transportation linked to the tourism sector constitutes a significant contributor to the overall energy consumption. Consequently, an increase in the influx of tourists leads to an augmented demand for energy resources. The findings of the present study indicate that the environmental consequences resulting from heightened energy consumption, attributable to the growing influx of international tourists in Brazil, may be adverse, mostly due to the concurrent growth in emissions. In order to meet the existing emissions targets and make progress towards decarbonization or the establishment of a low-carbon economy, Brazil must make significant efforts to modify its tourism infrastructure in order to reduce the environmental impacts associated with it, while also taking advantage of low-carbon technologies.

The escalation of environmental degradation is a direct consequence of the growth in economic prosperity facilitated by tourism activities. This is mostly due to the amplification of societal needs fulfilled through increased consumption and development initiatives, which in turn leads to heightened levels of pollution and waste. According to the study conducted by Dogan and Aslan (2017), tourism industry plays a significant role in the generation of CO₂ emissions. This is primarily attributed to the utilization of various transportation modes, the establishment of tourist infrastructure, and the delivery of public services. Furthermore, Tsai et al. (2014) documented that an increase in the provision of superior services within hotels and resorts situated in tourist areas corresponded to a rise in CO₂ emissions per individual guest. Furthermore, it should be noted that tourism has a significant role in the deterioration of environmental well-being, leading to the release of CO₂ emissions not only from the transportation industry but also from the production of energy and heat (Ng et al. 2016). Moreover, the tourism industry exerts diverse biophysical and socio-cultural influences on the environment. Tourism activities pollute the atmospheric environment by emitting smoke, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and other dangerous chemicals. Excessive tourist activities have the potential to inflict harm onto the natural environment, hence reducing its overall appeal. The introduction of waste materials has the potential to transform a visually appealing site into a repository for refuse. Moreover, the tourism industry makes a significant contribution to the issue of noise pollution, encompassing both audible disturbances and the presence of vehicles on the roads. Furthermore, Raza et al. (2021) argued that the increase in carbon emissions can be attributed to various factors, including the operations of airplanes, hotel accommodations, and the utilization of motorized water activities. Moreover, the expansion of mass tourism has significant worldwide environmental repercussions, with deforestation being a particularly crucial outcome. Consequently, the development of sustainable tourism is imperative in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of tourism on society, the environment, the climate, and the economy.

Nevertheless, it is indisputable that tourism plays a vital role in the economic advancement of Brazil, necessitating adequate support and strategic growth. Therefore, it is imperative to prioritize environmental protection and enhancement in order to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and the tourism sector, rather than posing a threat to environmental sustainability. The reduction of CO₂ emissions is facilitated by technological advancements that enhance energy efficiency through the utilization of renewable energy sources. This approach proves beneficial for reducing emissions without impeding economic growth. Brazil possesses a substantial capacity for renewable energy resources that can be effectively used to facilitate energy generation in diverse tourism endeavors. The renewable resources that are best suitable for Brazil include hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, and biofuel. Brazil holds the distinction of being the second largest global producer of hydropower in terms of installed capacity. Moreover, it boasts the highest installed hydroelectric capacity in the South American region, accounting for a significant 60% of the total capacity across the continent. Hydropower of considerable magnitude continues to serve as the primary contributor to the electrical supply, while wind and solar energy collectively account for approximately 11%. According to the Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) for the period of 2021–2031, as outlined by the Brazilian Energy Planning Agency (EPE), it is projected that renewable sources will continue to hold significant importance in Brazil’s energy market, accounting for around 50% of the country’s energy matrix within the specified timeframe. Moreover, the tourist industry in Brazil has recognized the rising significance of forests due to the increased interest in ecotourism and outdoor leisure. Forest tourism has various distinctive characteristics, including the opportunity for individuals to directly engage with the relatively undisturbed natural phenomenon, the promotion of knowledge and concern for the preservation of the natural environment, and the mitigation of negative effects on both the natural and socio-cultural surroundings. The implementation of tourism development initiatives within protected area forests, national parks, and reserved forests has the potential to mitigate carbon emissions resulting from deforestation activities. Additionally, these initiatives can contribute to the absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the forests, hence increasing their carbon sink capacity.

5 Conclusion and policy implications

5.1 Conclusion

Brazil is the largest economy within the Latin American region and bears responsibility for a substantial portion of the carbon dioxide emissions stemming from heightened energy consumption associated with diverse economic endeavors. The tourism industry in Brazil has experienced significant growth, leading to a corresponding rise in energy consumption. This is of particular concern due to Brazil’s vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change. Hence, this study undertook an empirical examination of the interplay between economic growth, energy consumption, tourism, and CO₂ emissions in Brazil. The analysis was conducted using time series data spanning the period from 1990 to 2019. The dataset’s stationarity was verified through the application of ADF, DF-GLS, and P-P unit root tests. Moreover, the ARDL limits test provided empirical support for the presence of cointegration among the variables over a prolonged period of time. The results obtained from the ARDL long- and short-run estimation demonstrate that a 1% rise in economic growth, energy consumption, and tourist arrivals leads to an increase in environmental degradation by causing a respective increase in CO₂ emissions of 1.37%, 1.06%, and 0.57% in the short run, and 0.72%, 0.62%, and 0.16% in the long run. This study makes a valuable contribution to the current body of literature by providing insights into the interconnectedness of tourism, economy, energy, and emissions. It also emphasizes the importance of supporting renewable energy sources and sustainable tourism practices as means to mitigate emissions in Brazil. This article presents policy proposals that aim to promote sustainable development through the implementation of robust regulatory policy tools designed to mitigate environmental deterioration.

5.2 Policy implications

The findings of this study indicate that it would be advisable for Brazilian politicians to develop an environmental policy that effectively mitigates CO₂ emissions while also safeguarding the continued economic expansion driven by tourism. In the context of Brazil, the most optimal strategic approach for addressing climate change involves the implementation of sustainable and low-carbon tourism development. In order to mitigate pollution at its origin, it may be necessary to reconsider the “pollute first, then treat” approach, and instead focus on transforming the economic development model that comes at the cost of environmental degradation. The present study suggests that the Brazilian government should provide support to enterprises by establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework that fosters sustainable emission reduction and consistently encourages the adoption of innovative technology, so facilitating the transition towards a more environmentally friendly and low-carbon economy. Furthermore, the Brazilian government has the potential to implement several measures such as the implementation of a carbon tax, the adoption of carbon capture and storage technologies, and the establishment of emission trading systems. These initiatives aim to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide resulting from the utilization of fossil fuels in both the power production and tourist sectors. Furthermore, it is imperative to promote the economic shift towards renewable energy sources in order to mitigate the environmental burdens resulting from economic growth and the expansion of the tourism industry. Policymakers have the potential to foster and advance renewable energy companies and technologies. By replacing carbon dioxide-intensive conventional energy sources, these initiatives would contribute to the economy’s efforts to enhance the proportion of renewable energy consumption in the overall energy consumption. Furthermore, it is imperative to establish institutional alignment in order to promote the use of renewable energy in many economic sectors and ensure sustainable economic development in the long run. Ultimately, strict compliance with environmental regulations is necessary. These steps will guarantee that the nation’s objective of achieving rapid economic growth and transformation is not achieved at the detriment of environmental quality.

The potential exists for the Brazilian government to enhance its financial assistance in order to further promote the development and use of renewable energy sources. Brazil possesses a substantial amount of both untapped and currently utilized renewable energy resources. However, the advancement and widespread adoption of these resources are impeded by the presence of elevated economic costs. Brazil is considering the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the financial burden associated with renewable energy sources, while concurrently discouraging the utilization of fossil fuels within various sectors, including businesses, companies, and homes. This initiative is driven by the recognition that the adoption of renewable energy may effectively contribute to the mitigation of emissions. The enhancement of energy consumption efficiency is predominantly influenced by technological progress. Therefore, Brazil might potentially augment its investments in cutting-edge energy-saving technology and foster research and development endeavors in this domain. Simultaneously, it has the potential to foster innovation in the domains of energy exploitation, transformation, and utilization. Furthermore, Brazil has the potential to establish technical assistance networks with technologically advanced nations, thereby fostering the growth of its renewable resources in a proactive manner. Moreover, there is potential for the enhancement of public education initiatives focused on energy conservation and use efficiency in Brazil. Given that Brazil is currently classified as a developing economy, it is likely that the general people would prioritize cheaper energy options over cleaner alternatives, even if this choice leads to increased carbon emissions. Tax incentives, financial subsidies, and government procurements are among the fiscal instruments that governmental authorities may employ to incentivize individuals to transition towards more environmentally sustainable energy sources. The utilization of media by the government as a means to endorse its green lifestyle idea and advocate for low-carbon lifestyles and consumption habits is a possibility. Solar water heaters have the potential to effectively fulfill the warm water requirements of various industries, including the tourism sector and domestic households. By utilizing this renewable energy source, significant reductions in energy consumption can be achieved. There is a need to commence research endeavors focused on the advancement of a micro-scale bioenergy system that utilizes agricultural and home waste as feedstock to generate biogas, hence offering potential societal benefits. The prioritization of waste-to-energy projects is recommended. The conversion of agricultural and market waste, forest trash, and other comparable types of waste into valuable energy sources is vital. It is recommended that farmers and communities establish localized digesters in order to transform home, agricultural, and livestock farm waste into biogas, which can then be utilized for culinary purposes. In order to promote the implementation of such an initiative throughout the community, it is suggested that the introduction of small loans at a significantly reduced interest rate be considered.

Given the substantial correlation between heightened consumption of fossil fuel energy and the resultant carbon emissions, it is imperative for Brazil to implement appropriate regulations aimed at reducing the reliance on fossil fuels within the tourism sector. Legislation that is deemed sufficient and suitable would serve to incentivize tourism endeavors in relation to economic advancement, while simultaneously fostering energy preservation, advocating for the utilization of renewable energy sources, and ensuring the safeguarding of the environment. One potential requirement might involve regulators providing incentives to key stakeholders within the tourism industry, encouraging the adoption of renewable energy sources, carbon-neutral transportation methods, and emission-free technologies as means to attain carbon neutrality. Furthermore, the government has the option to allocate funds towards the support of ecologically sustainable public transportation systems, offer tax advantages, or provide incentives to taxpayers engaged in tourism services that prioritize energy efficiency and the utilization of renewable energy sources. The government might potentially demonstrate leadership by incorporating renewable energy technologies and energy-efficient features into the infrastructure and facilities of highly frequented tourist attractions. This initiative would enable these locations to optimize their energy consumption and save associated costs. The utilization of energy-efficient practices and the adoption of renewable energy sources not only mitigate air pollution and carbon emissions but also yield financial savings for taxpayers and generate long-term employment prospects. The utilization of fossil fuel energy within the hospitality industry, namely in hotels and restaurants, should be limited to essential requirements. Furthermore, it is possible to provide incentives to hotels and similar enterprises to encourage them to generate their own electricity through the utilization of renewable energy sources. The Brazilian government ought to prioritize efforts aimed at enhancing the sustainability and environmental friendliness of the country’s carbon-intensive tourist sector, with the objective of mitigating its adverse effects on carbon dioxide emissions. The achievement of carbon neutrality is imperative for Brazil to meet its emission reduction targets, and the development and adoption of renewable energy technology will play a crucial role in facilitating this objective.

Moreover, it is imperative to promote technological advancements in the transportation industry, including the adoption of energy-efficient vehicles and the utilization of autos powered by renewable energy sources. The expansion of tourism has been found to have a direct correlation with the potential reduction of CO₂ emissions through many means, such as the allocation of resources towards enhancing energy efficiency, adopting renewable energy technologies, implementing effective waste management strategies, and upgrading public transit systems. Furthermore, it is possible for the government to implement environmental levies in popular tourist destinations as a means of preserving the natural surroundings. The potential exists for the government to implement measures that facilitate the adoption of environmentally sustainable practices within the tourism industry. This could involve providing support for tourism businesses to utilize equipment that is both environmentally friendly and low in carbon emissions. Additionally, the government may encourage the use of alternative energy sources for transportation and logistics purposes. Furthermore, the implementation of supplementary tourism-related events could serve as a means to further mitigate CO₂ emissions and prevent the continued depletion of natural resources. Enhancing the allocation of resources is necessary in order to effectively attain the SDGs and fulfill the objective of achieving carbon neutrality. The reconsideration of plans for tourism expansion and associated businesses in Brazil is imperative in light of the potential for emission reduction. Ecotourism, educational tourism, cultural tourism, adventure tourism, and recreational tourism are a few illustrative instances of sustainable tourism that warrant promotion by the administration. Furthermore, the promotion of outdoor recreational activities such as scuba diving and hiking might contribute to the mitigation of energy consumption and environmental degradation. Additionally, the implementation of a carbon tax within the travel industry could serve as a potential strategy to foster the expansion of low-carbon tourism. Additional options encompass investing in adequate technology for monitoring and regulating usage, implementing energy-efficient light fixtures, building environmentally-friendly air conditioning systems, minimizing water consumption, and utilizing cost-effective boilers for heating purposes.

It is imperative for Brazil to implement regulations aimed at fostering a carbon-neutral tourism sector, given the abundance of remarkable natural tourist destinations inside the country. The preservation and enhancement of the environment, biodiversity, and ecosystems play a pivotal role in attracting future tourists. Consequently, the establishment of a sustainable tourism framework will not only contribute to the conservation of Brazil’s renowned natural environment but also ensure the sustained influx of foreign tourists. The Brazilian government is likely to introduce a system aimed at ensuring accountability among tourists, residents, and other visitors for their impact on the natural environment of the country’s most renowned tourism destinations. The potential for tourists to have a more favorable experience and acquire greater knowledge would be enhanced if the tourism sector were encouraged to adopt sustainable practices and assume environmental stewardship. In order to ensure the sustained efficacy of a program aimed at promoting the judicious utilization of energy, individuals from diverse backgrounds, including visitors, could be provided with educational instruction. The dissemination of informational flyers and brochures, along with the implementation of awareness campaigns featuring visually appealing infographics, and regular updates on governmental efforts and progress in promoting energy conservation, environmental sustainability, and green living, can effectively raise public awareness about these crucial issues, even during vacation periods. The use of green tourism practices has the potential to effectively mitigate environmental degradation in Brazil.

The policy implications serve as a cautious signal and should serve as a wake-up call to government and officials who prioritize superficial policy changes over the substantive goal of achieving carbon neutrality. It is imperative for policymakers to give due consideration to energy- and tourism-related policies, particularly in the development and implementation of energy policies, as well as rules and frameworks pertaining to environmental policies. Given the significant contribution of the tourism sector to Brazil’s GDP, it is imperative for the country to effectively leverage the competitiveness of its tourism industry. This can be achieved through strategies such as augmenting revenue, establishing secure partnerships and investments, and empowering local communities, all while ensuring that these efforts do not generate adverse impacts on the domestic economy and the environment. Therefore, it is imperative to guarantee that the tourism sectors and their supply chain are in accordance with the policies aimed at achieving the SDGs, particularly in promoting responsible consumption and adopting ecologically friendly practices. When all sectors of the tourism industry and their associated supply chain activities adhere to and comply with established strategies and practices, this sector has the potential to facilitate job creation, foster social integration, preserve biodiversity, generate sustainable livelihoods, enhance human well-being, and safeguard natural and cultural heritage. Brazil has the potential to improve its existing energy and environmental regulations in order to provide insights for other emerging nations grappling with environmental deterioration caused by the growing reliance on fossil fuels in the tourism industry. It is imperative for the governments in the Latin America region to establish a collaborative approach in order to formulate and implement efficacious plans for the promotion of sustainable tourism.

5.3 Limitations and future research directions

While the current study has yielded significant empirical findings regarding Brazil, there are numerous shortcomings in the analysis that could be addressed in future research. One of the primary limitations of the analysis pertains to the lack of data beyond the research period, hence constraining the efficacy of the employed econometric methodologies. This study has examined the interconnected relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, tourist arrivals, and CO₂ emissions in Brazil using up-to-date time series data. Additional research might be conducted in other developing nations, employing other econometric models or utilizing micro-disaggregated data, to examine the interconnections between tourism, the economy, energy, and emissions. Furthermore, it is recommended that future research consider additional factors influencing growth that were not examined in the present study. These factors may include trade openness, financial development, foreign direct investments, urbanization, industrialization, globalization, technological innovation, and forest area, among others. Nevertheless, this research employed CO₂ as a measure of environmental deterioration. Additional research endeavors could be undertaken to enhance the overall environmental quality in Brazil by employing consumption-based carbon emissions as a surrogate for environmental degradation, or by employing alternative indicators of environmental degradation such as particulate matter (PM 2.5), nitrous oxide, sulfur dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, and other short-lived climate forces. However, in the current study, CO₂ emissions are employed as a metric to symbolize environmental deterioration, recognizing that they are not the sole contributor to environmental pollution. Future research on the interconnectedness of environmental pollution indicators in Brazil could potentially incorporate additional factors such as water pollution, land pollution, and waste generation. Moreover, it is recommended that future studies employ advanced econometric techniques to compare the outcomes of specific countries with the overall panel results, in addition to applying panel estimations. These sources have the potential to offer valuable insights and comparisons to the results of this study, so contributing to the existing body of knowledge in a meaningful way.