Abstract
In the context of the intensified United States–China great power competition under Presidents Donald Trump and Joseph Biden, the U.S. strategic thinking about Taiwan has evolved. While the U.S. still expresses concern for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, it has more recently come to covet Taiwan as a strategic U.S. asset. As such it perceives Taiwan’s continued separation from the Chinese mainland to be in the U.S. national interests. The enhancement of U.S. existing economic, political, and security interests as regards Taiwan and a “rediscovery” of Taiwan’s intrinsic military value have combined to drive the evolution of the U.S. strategic thinking. Concurrently the policies and behaviors of both Beijing and Taipei have served to complement and facilitate this evolution. The new U.S. strategic thinking, even if it is incomplete and has limits, means that U.S. and Chinese perspectives on Taiwan have become much more incompatible, and that Chinese trust in the U.S.’ long-term intentions has all but evaporated. Unless the Taiwan issue is managed with greater caution and restraint, the U.S. and China will likely be on a collision course to conflict over Taiwan.
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Notes
It is worth noting that President Nixon and Kissinger understood the domestic opposition against normalization of relations with Beijing or turning its back on Taipei, so they chose more ambiguous language about their position in public. The author thanks an anonymous reviewer for this point.
At the time of this writing, much of the defense components of the Taiwan Policy Act was included in the Senate’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2023. The NDAA is expected to be voted on after the U.S. November midterm elections. Harris and Gould (2022).
For a similar view, see Xin (2020).
For a recent review on scholarly discussion about credibility, see Jervis, Yarhi-Milo and Casler (2021).
There is also a view that the Chinese mainland has historically viewed Taiwan through geostrategic lens. See Wachman (2007).
For a comprehensive analysis of the U.S.–China military balance, see Heginbotham et al. (2015). The sense of anxiety about Beijing’s possible use of force was ignited by then U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip S. Davidson’s comments in a congressional testimony in March 2021 that Beijing could try to take control of Taiwan “in the next decade” or even “in the next six years.” See Shelbourne (2021). The Russian–Ukraine war heightened that anxiety. See Hille (2022). For different views, see Nathan (2022) and Mastro (2022).
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Jie, D. U.S. evolving strategic thinking about Taiwan. China Int Strategy Rev. 4, 217–232 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-022-00124-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-022-00124-z