Abstract
Climate change is one of the most challenging environmental issues faced by the present day world community. Its impacts are reflected in different components of the socioeconomic and biophysical systems. Temperature is a fundamental climatic variable that is studied thoroughly across globe for the similar purpose of capturing the dynamic nature of the variable and relating it with the human interventions over time. The main objective of the present study is to analyse the long-term trends in temperature that have occurred in the territory of Kazakhstan on annual, seasonal and monthly time scales. The study used the non-parametric statistical methods such as M–K statistical test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Pettit’s test to analyse the time series data and portray it through various GIS techniques. The results revealed that Kazakhstan showed a significant increasing trend in the mean annual temperature from 1970 to 2017. The Sen’s slope estimator reflected that the mean temperature increased at an annual rate of 0.034 °C for the selected time period with a probable change point detected in the year 1996. On the seasonal scale, all the four seasons showed increasing trends for their respective average temperatures. Among the four seasons, highest increase in the temperature was reported by spring season which was subsequently followed by winter and autumn seasons. The least increase was reflected by summer season for which the variable increased at 0.20 °C/decade. The months of March and August were significant contributors to the warming that happened in Kazakhstan during the studied time period of 48 years.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) for providing the necessary historical temperature dataset for the study. The authors would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for improving the quality of the research paper through their valuable suggestions.
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University Grants Commission (UGC), Govt. of India supported the study by providing fellowship to the first and fourth author in the form of NET-JRF.
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IF designed the roadmap, prepared the methodology and wrote the draft; ARS did the formal analysis; KMS revised the draft and MI generated different maps.
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Farooq, I., Shah, A.R., Salik, K.M. et al. Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Trend Analysis of Temperature in Kazakhstan During 1970–2017 Using Non-parametric Statistical Methods and GIS Technologies. Earth Syst Environ 5, 575–595 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00244-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00244-3