Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming

  • Research Paper
  • Published:
Science China Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia (ACA) and their regional differences during 1930–2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend (0.7 mm/10 a) in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions (I West Kazakhstan region, II East Kazakhstan region, III Central Asia Plains region, IV Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region). The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions (regions I and II, approximately north of 45°N), whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring (accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation) in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA (subregion V) during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions I and III. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2–3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5–6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3–4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the mid- to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. IPCC. Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 4–6

    Google Scholar 

  2. Mann M E. Climate over the past two millennia. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci, 2007, 35: 111–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Mann M E, Zhang Z H, Hughes M K, et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2008, 105: 13252–13257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Karl T R. Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900–1995. Geophys Res Lett, 1998, 25: 3367–3370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Ma Z G, Fu C B. Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2007, 50: 776–788

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Hulme M. Recent climatic change in the world’s drylands. Geophys Res Lett, 1996, 23: 61–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Rogers J C, Van L H. The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. Part II: Some oceanic and atmospheric effects in middle and high latitudes. Mon Weather Rev, 1979, 107: 509–519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Aizen E M, Aizen V B, Melack J M, et al. Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid-latitudes of Asia. Int J Climatol, 2001, 21: 535–556

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Chen F H, Yu Z C, Yang M L, et al. Holocene moisture evolution in arid central Asia and its out-of-phase relationship with Asian monsoon history. Quat Sci Rev, 2008, 27: 351–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Zhao Y, Yu Z C, Chen F H, et al. Vegetation response to Holocene climate change in monsoon-influenced region of China. Earth-Sci Rev, 2009, 97: 242–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Chen F H, Chen J H, Holmes J, et al. Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia: A review, synthesis and comparison with monsoon region. Quat Sci Rev, 2010, 29: 1055–1068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Chen F H, Chen J H, Huang W. A discussion on the westerly-dominated climate model in mid-latitude Asia during the modern interglacial period (in Chinese). Earth Sci Front, 2009, 16: 023–032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Chen F H, Wang J S, Jin L Y, et al. Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years. Front Earth Sci Chin, 2009, 3: 42–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Kang E, et al. Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Clim Change, 2007, 80: 379–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Su M F, Wang H J. Relationship and its instability of ENSO-Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2007, 50: 145–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Jiang D B, Su M F, Wei R Q, et al. Variation and projection of drought and wet conditions in Xinjiang (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2009, 33: 90–98

    Google Scholar 

  17. Feng S, Nadarajah S, Hu Q. Modeling annual extreme precipitation in China using generalized extreme value distribution. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2007, 85: 599–613

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Jin L Y, Fu J L, Chen F H. Spatial differences of precipitation over northwest China during the last 44 years and its response to global warming (in Chinese). Sci Geogr Sin, 2005, 25: 567–572

    Google Scholar 

  19. Ma Z G, Fu C B. Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004. Chin Sci Bull, 2006, 51: 2913–2925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Li J B, Gou X H, Cook E R, et al. Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the central Tien Shan area in northwest China. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L07715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Li J B, Chen F H, Cook E R, et al. Drought reconstruction for north central China from tree rings: The value of the Palmer drought severity index. Int J Climatol, 2007, 27: 903–909

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Wang J S, Chen F H, Jin L Y, et al. Characteristics of the dry/wet trend over arid central Asia over the past 100 years. Clim Res, 2010, 41: 51–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Lioubimtseva E, Cole R, Adams J M, et al. Impacts of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of central Asia. J Arid Environ, 2005, 62: 285–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Mitchell T D, Jones P D. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol, 2005, 25: 693–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Wen X Y, Wang S W, Zhu J H, et al. An overview of China climate change over the 20th century using UK UEA/CRU high resolution grid data (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2006, 30: 894–904

    Google Scholar 

  26. Neukom R, Prieto M R, Moyano R, et al. An extended network of documentary data from south America and its potential for quantitative precipitation reconstructions back to the 16th century. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36: L12703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Xu H M, Taylor R G, Kingston D G, et al. Hydrological modeling of river Xiangxi using SWAT2005: A comparison of model parameterizations using station and gridded meteorological observations. Quat Int, 2010, 226: 54–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Lorenz E N. Empirical orthogonal function and statistical weather prediction. Scientific Report No. 1 Statist Forecasting Project, Dept. Meteor., MIT, Boston, 1956

    Google Scholar 

  29. Wei F Y. Modern Climat Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technique (in Chinese). Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007

    Google Scholar 

  30. Tomé A R, Miranda P M A. Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters. Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31: L02207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Thomson D J. Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis. Proc IEEE, 1982, 70: 1055–1096

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Li J B, Cook E R, Chen F H, et al. An extreme drought event in the central Tien Shan area in the year 1945. J Arid Environ, 2010, 74: 1225–1231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Yuan Y J, Jin L Y, Shao X M, et al. Variations of the spring precipitation day numbers reconstructed from tree rings in the Urumqi River drainage, Tianshan Mts. over the last 370 years. Chin Sci Bull, 2003, 48: 1507–1510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Wei W S, Yuan Y J, Yu S L, et al. Climate change in recent 235 years and trend prediction in Tianshan mountainous area (in Chinese). J Desert Res, 2008, 28: 803–808

    Google Scholar 

  35. North G R, Bell T L, Cahalan R F, et al. Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal function. Mon Weather Rev, 1982, 110: 699–706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111: D12106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Qian W H, Qin A. Precipitation division and climate shift in China from 1960 to 2000. Theor Appl Climatol, 2008, 93: 1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Hu R J, Jiang F Q, Wang Y J, et al. A study on signals and effects of climatic pattern change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang (in Chinese). Arid Land Geogr, 2002, 25: 194–200

    Google Scholar 

  39. Guo N, Zhang J, Liang Y. Climate change indicated by the recent change of inland lakes in northwest China (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 2003, 25: 124–127

    Google Scholar 

  40. Li J P, Zeng Q C. A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons. Adv Atmos Sci, 2003, 20: 299–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Wang B, Ding Q H. Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L06711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Sun Y. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in east China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences. Int J Climatol, 2008, 28: 1139–1161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Zeng Z M, Yan Z W, Ye D Z. Two global warming events in the 20th century (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2003, 8: 319–330

    Google Scholar 

  44. Li L J, Wang B, Zhou T J. Impacts of external forcing on the 20th century global warming. Chin Sci Bull, 2007, 52: 3148–3154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Wang J S, Chen F H, Jin L Y, et al. The response to two global warming periods in the 20th century over the arid central Asia (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 2008, 30: 224–233

    Google Scholar 

  46. Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira L S. A precipitation-based regionalization for western Iran and regional drought variability. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 2008, 12: 1309–1321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Jin L Y, Chen F H, Morrill C, et al. Causes of early Holocene desertification in arid Central Asia. Clim Dyn, 2011, doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1081-1

  48. Trenberth K E, Shin W T K. Quasi-Biennial fluctuations in sea level pressure over the Northern Hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev, 1984, 112: 761–777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Rasmusson E M, Wang X, Ropelewski C F. The biennial component of ENSO variability. J Mar Syst, 1990, 1: 71–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Li C Y, Long Z X. Study on Subtropical High activity over the western Pacific and QBO in the stratosphere (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 1997, 21: 670–678

    Google Scholar 

  51. Sathiyamoorthy V, Mohanakumar K. Characteristics of tropospheric biennial oscillation and its possible association with the stratospheric QBO. Geophys Res Lett, 2000, 27: 669–672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Ding Y G, Yu J H, Shi N. Quasi-Biennial Oscillation variability in interannual variance of the global surface temperature during the last 100-year period (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci, 2001, 25: 89–102

    Google Scholar 

  53. Wang S W. A preliminary study on the characteristics and evolution of mean monthly circulation, I. Zonal Index (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin, 1963, 33: 361–374

    Google Scholar 

  54. Wang C H, Cui Y. A study of the stability of the precipitation cycle over northwest China in the past 50 years (in Chinese). Adv Earth Sci, 2006, 21: 576–584

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. MOE Key Laboratory of West China’s Environmental System, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    FaHu Chen, Wei Huang, LiYa Jin & JianHui Chen

  2. Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, 730020, China

    JinSong Wang

Authors
  1. FaHu Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wei Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. LiYa Jin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. JianHui Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. JinSong Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to FaHu Chen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Chen, F., Huang, W., Jin, L. et al. Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming. Sci. China Earth Sci. 54, 1812–1821 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-011-4333-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-011-4333-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation