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A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in SE Iran; case study: Kerman province

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Abstract

Kerman province in SE Iran has always experienced devastating earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out an up-to-date probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in order to the risk reduce and increase the resilience of the infrastructures. This study provides PSHA with emphasis on uncertainties in different steps of analysis. To create an integrated seismic catalog with moment magnitude, a magnitude conversion algorithm was proposed which can be applied with the reference to IRSC main catalog. To achieve the best results, active seismic zones of Kerman province and its around areas, have been carefully identified. Seismic source zones were modeled by four criteria: seismicity, faults, geological conditions, and focal mechanisms. Seismicity parameters (Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law coefficients, Mmax and Mmin, as well as activity rate) were determined for all the seismic source zones. Ground-motion models have been applied in accordance with the region and the existing uncertainties have been identified and reduced as much as possible. The results of this study are presented in form of bedrock seismic hazard maps for PGA and spectral acceleration in 0.2 s and 1.0 s periods with a probability of 2% and 10% in 50 years, to meet all structural design needs in the region. Our results indicate the maximum and minimum PGA with the 475-year return period (0.58 g and 0.05g) are related to the Faryab city, and the Lut plain, respectively. Also, our results of the 2475- return period show Faryab city and Lut plain have highest and lowest PGA (0.92 g and 0.1 g), respectively.

Resumen

Históricamente, la provincia de Kerman, SE Irán, ha experimentado muchos terremotos devastadores. Es por tanto necesario hacer una puesta al día mediante un análisis probabilístico de peligros sísmicos (PSHA) con la idea de reducir los riesgos y aumentar la resiliencia de las infraestructuras. El estudio de PSHA presentado está desarrollado en diferentes etapas. Para crear un catálogo integrado de seísmos con momento de magnitud, se ha propuesto un algoritmo de conversión de magnitudes que puede ser aplicado con un catálogo base de IRSC. Para obtener los mejores resultados se han identificado las zonas sísmicas de la provincia de Kerman y de zonas próximas. Las zonas de origen sísmico fueron diferenciadas bajo cuatro criterios: sismicidad, fallas, condiciones geológicas y mecanismos focales. Los parámetros sísmicos (Ley de recurrencia Gutemberg-Richter, Mmax y Mmin, y el grado de actividad) fueron determinados para todas las zonas de origen de los seísmos. Los modelos de movimientos profundos han sido aplicados de acuerdo con cada región. Pudiéndose detectar incertidumbres y reducirlas todo lo posible. Los resultados de este estudio son presentados en forma de mapas de peligros sísmicos para PGA, y aceleración espectral de periodos de 0,2 a 1.0 s con una probabilidad del 2% al 10% en 50 años, para encontrar el diseño estructural necesario en la región. Nuestros resultados abarcan el máximo y mínimo PGA con un periodo de retorno de 475 años (0,58 g y 0,1 g) para la ciudad de Faryad y la llanura Lt respectivamente. Por otro lado, nuestros resultados con periodo de retorno de 2.475 muestra que la ciudad de Faruad y la llanura de Lut tienen los valores más altos y más bajos de PGA (0,92 g y 0,1 g) respectivamente.

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Data and resources

Data for seismic catalog compilation were mainly obtained from the Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC), http://irsc.ut.ac.ir/bulletin.php (last accessed January 2020), the International Seismological Centre (ISC), http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/bulletin/ (last accessed January 2020), the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ (last accessed January 2020), and the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT), https://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html (last accessed January 2020), databases. Data on the focal mechanism were taken from the GCMT catalog, https://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html (last accessed January 2020). Data on earthquake accelerometers were obtained from Building and Housing Research Center (BHRC), https://smd.bhrc.ac.ir/Portal/en/Search/Waveforms (last accessed March 2020).

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman in Kerman, Iran. Thanks the editor, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful reviews of this manuscript. Grateful to the Dr. Milad Kowsari for his comments and insightful suggestions and careful reading of the manuscript. We appreciate Maryam Sadeghi's advice and guidance.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering of Shahid, Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

    Mehrdad Balouch & Mohammad Hossein Bagheripour

  2. Department of Geology, Faculty of Science of Shahid, Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

    Majid Nemati

  3. Department of Earthquake Research, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

    Majid Nemati & Ahmad Rashidi

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  1. Mehrdad Balouch
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  2. Majid Nemati
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  3. Mohammad Hossein Bagheripour
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  4. Ahmad Rashidi
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Correspondence to Majid Nemati.

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Balouch, M., Nemati, M., Bagheripour, M.H. et al. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in SE Iran; case study: Kerman province. J Iber Geol 49, 257–274 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41513-023-00224-8

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