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Vulnerability of Parkia biglobosa, Vitellaria paradoxa and Vitex doniana to climate change: wild indigenous agroforestry species in Benin

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Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, with global greenhouse gas emissions exceeding the Paris Agreement, which has a significant impact on the distribution of species at risk of facing extinction. Thus, predicting climate change's influence on species distribution is crucial. In Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Benin, some useful plants such as Parkia biglobosa, Vitex doniana, and Vitellaria paradoxa contribute greatly to improving socio-economic standards. However, they are subjected to overexploitation and climate change, which potentially could lead to their extinction. To predict the habitat suitability of these native agroforestry species for their conservation and cultivation, we assessed the best-performing algorithm among Maximum Entropy, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Generalized Linear Models and Boosted Regression Tree. Data were collected from field occurrences and Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and coupled with environment variables selected based on collinearity tests, contribution of variables, and Jackknife tests. We analyzed the main variables affecting their distribution under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios by the year 2055. Results showed that Random Forest (RF) was the most appropriate model for predicting the distribution of the three species, with an area under the curve (AUC) > 0.90. Cation exchange capacity, isothermality, and potential evapotranspiration are the environmental factors that all three species depend on. Under current environmental conditions, P. biglobosa, V. paradoxa, and V. doniana covered 52.10%, 76.91%, and 70.22% of the suitable habitats throughout the study area (11,540 km2). A probable expansion of the suitable habitats was noted, with up to 76.19% for P. biglobosa and 82.82% for V. paradoxa. Exceptionally, V. doniana will lose 7.36% of its suitable habitats under the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios by the year 2055. These findings represent a step forward in the process of conserving P. biglobosa, V. paradoxa, and V. doniana in appropriate habitats in the context of climate change.

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Data availability

Datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

Authors thank the African-German Network of Excellence in Science (AGNES) for granting a Mobility Grant in 2021; the Grant is generously sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. We are grateful to the Islamic Development Bank (IsBD) for its support and for giving us this PhD opportunity through Small-holder Agricultural Production Enhancement Program (SAPEP). We are also very grateful to Council Soil Institute Research—Soil Institute Research in Kumasi (Ghana) for they hosted during the mobility internship. The authors would like to thank Agonha Parfait and Akouété Pathmos for their contribution to data collection in the field.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières (LABEF), Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin

    Angeline Reine Kakpo, Emile Codjo Agbangba, Guillaume Hounsou-Dindin & Romain Glèlè Kakaï

  2. Research Unit in Sustainable Management of Tropical soils fertility, Laboratory of Soil Sciences, School of Plant Production, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin, 01 BP 526 RP, Cotonou, Benin

    Angeline Reine Kakpo & Guillaume Lucien Amadji

  3. Laboratory of Applied Biology Research and Study, Polytechnic School of Abomey-Calavi, Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP 2009 RP, Cotonou, Benin

    Mahunan José Vodounnon & Emile Codjo Agbangba

  4. Laboratory of Soil Science, Water and Environment, Research Agricultural Center of Agonkanmey, National Institute of Agronomic Research of Benin, 01 BP 988 RP, Cotonou, Benin

    Dieudonné Gustave Dagbénonbakin

  5. Department of Soil Resources Management, CSIR College of Science and Technology, CSIR-Soil Research Institute, Academy Post Office, Kumasi, Ghana

    Mohamed Moro Buri

Authors
  1. Angeline Reine Kakpo
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  2. Mahunan José Vodounnon
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  3. Emile Codjo Agbangba
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  4. Guillaume Hounsou-Dindin
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  5. Dieudonné Gustave Dagbénonbakin
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  6. Guillaume Lucien Amadji
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  7. Mohamed Moro Buri
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  8. Romain Glèlè Kakaï
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Contributions

ARK, ECA and GHD conceived the ideas and designed the methodology; ARK and MJV collected the data; ARK and MJV analyzed the data; ARK, MJV, ECA, GHD, DGD, GLA, MMB and RGK led the writing of the manuscript. All authors contributed critically to the drafts and gave final approval for publication.

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Correspondence to Angeline Reine Kakpo.

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Kakpo, A.R., Vodounnon, M.J., Agbangba, E.C. et al. Vulnerability of Parkia biglobosa, Vitellaria paradoxa and Vitex doniana to climate change: wild indigenous agroforestry species in Benin. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 10, 1599–1614 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01856-6

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