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Modelling the current and future distribution of Kigelia africana under climate change in Benin, West Africa

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Abstract

Kigelia africana (Bignoniaceae), is an indigenous species widely recognised for its medicinal, magic uses and therapeutic virtue used throughout Africa and especially in Benin Republic. Distribution of the species coincides with that of the intermediate hosts as determined by environmental factors. This study aimed to model the present-day and future distribution of Kigelia africana in Benin. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling technique was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats of Kigelia africana using presence data combined with two future forescats: CNRM-CM5and HadGEM2-ES. Results showed that Annual Temperature range, precipitation seasonality, soil, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month were most significant variables. Which mean that the excellent of the model. Likewise, must of the distribution of the species will be find mostly stable. The different model used identified different areas as highest conservation priority although the highest priority areas keeping most of Kigelia africana species are located in the Guineo-Congolian and Sudano-Guinean region. Additional analyses could help to have more information about the distribution and population and cultivation of Kigelia africana species, which in future will help us to improve operative conservation strategies for this medicinal species. MaxEnt model is robust in Kigelia africana species habitat modelling.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Thanks to the management of the Federal University of Technology (FUT) Minna for offering enabling learning environment necessary for the success of this research.

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  1. West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC&ALU), Federal University of Technology, Minna, PMB 65, Minna, Niger, Nigeria

    Meminvegni Landry Gildas Guidigan, Appollonia Amiosino Okhimamhe & Lucette Adet

  2. Laboratory of Applied Ecology, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP 526, Cotonou, Benin

    Meminvegni Landry Gildas Guidigan, Fortuné Azihou & Brice Sinsin

  3. Laboratory of Biomathematics and Forest Estimations, Faculty of Agronomic Science, University of Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP 526, Cotonou, Benin

    Rodrigue Idohou

  4. Université nationale d’agriculture École de foresterie et ingénierie du bois Unité de recherche en foresterie, agroforesterie et biogéographie BP 45, Kétou, Benin

    Meminvegni Landry Gildas Guidigan & Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

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  1. Meminvegni Landry Gildas Guidigan
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Guidigan, M.L.G., Azihou, F., Idohou, R. et al. Modelling the current and future distribution of Kigelia africana under climate change in Benin, West Africa. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 4, 1225–1238 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0491-4

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