Current Climate Change Reports

, Volume 4, Issue 2, pp 164–179 | Cite as

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

  • Benjamin I. Cook
  • Justin S. Mankin
  • Kevin J. Anchukaitis
Climate Change and Drought (Q Fu, Section Editor)
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Topical Collection on Climate Change and Drought


Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.


Drought Climate change Paleoclimate Detection and attribution 



The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and Anne Van Loon for providing feedback on Fig. 1. Lamont contribution number #8215.

Funding Information

Support for BIC comes from the NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction program. JSM is supported by The Earth Institute of Columbia University and NSF Award AGS-1243204 (“Collaborative Research: EaSM2–Linking Near Term Future Changes in Weather and Hydroclimate in Western North America to Adaptation for Ecosystem and Water Management”). KJA is supported by grants from the US National Science Foundation Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change program (P2C2; AGS-1304262 and AGS-1501856).

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare they have no conflict of interests.


  1. 1.
    World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP). Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) working paper 1. Geneva: WMO and Stockholm: GWP; 2017.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Allen C, Breshears D. Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation . Proc Natl Acad Sci 1998;95(25):14839.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Breshears D, Cobb N, Rich P, Price K, Allen C, Balice R, Romme W, Kastens J, Floyd M, Belnap J, et al. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2005;102(42):15144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Zhao M, Running SW. Science 2010;329(5994):940. Scholar
  5. 5.
    Cooley H, Donnelly K, Phurisamban R, Subramanian M. Impacts of California’s ongoing drought: agriculture. Oakland: Pacific Institute; 2015.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Madadgar S, AghaKouchak A, Farahmand A, Davis SJ. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(15):7799. Scholar
  7. 7.
    Benson LV, Berry MS, Jolie EA, Spangler JD, Stahle DW, Hattori EM. Quat Sci Rev 2007;26(3–4):336. Scholar
  8. 8.
    Hansen ZK, Libecap GD. J Polit Econ 2004;112(3):665. Scholar
  9. 9.
    Gautier D, Denis D, Locatelli B. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2016;7(5):666. Scholar
  10. 10.
    Kelley C, Mohtadi S, Cane M, Seager R, Kushnir Y. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2015;112(11):3241. Scholar
  11. 11.
    Cook B, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Coats S. Clim Dyn 2014;43(9–10):2607. Scholar
  12. 12.
    Dai A. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2011;2(1):45. Scholar
  13. 13.
    Dai A. Nat Clim Chang 2013;3(1):52. Scholar
  14. 14.
    Seager R, Ting M, Li C, Naik N, Cook B, Nakamura J, Liu H. Nat Clim Chang 2013;3:482. Scholar
  15. 15.
    Seager R, Liu H, Henderson N, Simpson I, Kelley C, Shaw T, Kushnir Y, Ting M. J Clim 2014;27(12):4655. Scholar
  16. 16.
    He M, Russo M, Anderson M. Climate. 2017;5(1).
  17. 17.
    Baudoin MA, Vogel C, Nortje K, Naik M. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 2017;23:128. Scholar
  18. 18.
    Laaha G, Gauster T, Tallaksen LM, Vidal JP, Stahl K, Prudhomme C, Heudorfer B, Vlnas R, Ionita M, Lanen HAJV, Adler MJ, Caillouet L, Delus C, Fendekova M, Gailliez S, Hannaford J, Kingston D, Loon AFV, Mediero L, Osuch M, Romanowicz R, Sauquet E, Stagge JH, Wong WK. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2017;21(6):3001. Scholar
  19. 19.
    Wilhite DA, Glantz MH. Water Int 1985;10(3):111. Scholar
  20. 20.
    Van Loon AF. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Water 2015;2(4):359. Scholar
  21. 21.
    Van Loon AF, Gleeson T, Clark J, Van Dijk AI, Stahl K, Hannaford J, Di Baldassarre G, Teuling AJ, Tallaksen LM, Uijlenhoet R, et al. Nat Geosci 2016;9(2):89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    AghaKouchak A. Nature 2015;524(7566):409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    He X, Wada Y, Wanders N, Sheffield J. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(4):1777. Scholar
  24. 24.
    Knutti R, Sedlacek J. Nat Clim Chang 2013;3(4):369. Scholar
  25. 25.
    Mankin JS, Smerdon JE, Cook B, Williams AP, Seager R. J Clim 2017;30(21):8689. Scholar
  26. 26.
    Swann ALS, Hoffman FM, Koven CD, Randerson JT. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2016;113(36):10019. Scholar
  27. 27.
    Smerdon JE, Luterbacher J, Phipps SJ, Anchukaitis K, Ault T, Coats S, Cobb KM, Cook B, Colose C, Felis T, Gallant A, Jungclaus JH, Konecky B, LeGrande A, Lewis S, Lopatka AS, Man W, Mankin JS, Maxwell JT, Otto-Bliesner BL, Partin JW, Singh D, Steiger N, Stevenson S, Tierney JE, Zanchettin D, Zhang H, Atwood AR, Andreu-Hayles L, Baek SH, Buckley B, Cook E, D’Arrigo R, Dee SG, Griffiths M, Kulkarni C, Kushnir Y, Lehner F, Leland C, Linderholm H, Okazaki A, Palmer J, Piovano E, Raible CC, Rao MP, Scheff J, Schmidt GA, Seager R, Widmann M, Williams AP, Xoplaki E. Clim Past Discuss 2017;2017:1. Scholar
  28. 28.
    Delworth T, Zeng F, Rosati A, Vecchi GA, Wittenberg AT. J Clim 2015;28(9):3834. Scholar
  29. 29.
    Seager R, Hoerling M, Schubert S, Wang H, Lyon B, Kumar A, Nakamura J, Henderson N. J Clim. 2015.
  30. 30.
    Diffenbaugh NS, Swain DL, Touma D. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2015;112(13):3931. Scholar
  31. 31.
    Griffin D, Anchukaitis K. Geophys Res Lett. 2014. 2014GL062433.
  32. 32.
    Williams AP, Seager R, Abatzoglou JT, Cook B, Smerdon JE, Cook E. Geophys Res Lett 2015;42(16):6819. Scholar
  33. 33.
    Hartmann D, Klein Tank A, Rusticucci M, Alexander L, Brönnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener F, Dlugokencky E, Easterling D, Kaplan A, Soden B, Thorne P, Wild M, Zhai P. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Stocker T, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen S, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, and Midgley P, editors. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press; 2013. p. 159–254,
  34. 34.
    Cook E, Woodhouse C, Eakin CM, Meko D, Stahle DW. Science 2004;306(5698):1015. Scholar
  35. 35.
    Cook E, Anchukaitis K, Buckley B, D’Arrigo R, Jacoby GC, Wright W E. Science 2010;328(5977):486. Scholar
  36. 36.
    Cook E, Seager R, Kushnir Y, Briffa KR, Büntgen U, Frank D, Krusic PJ, Tegel W, van der Schrier G, Andreu-Hayles L, Baillie M, Baittinger C, Bleicher N, Bonde N, Brown D, Carrer M, Cooper R, Cufar K, Dittmar C, Esper J, Griggs C, Gunnarson B, Günther B, Gutierrez E, Haneca K, Helama S, Herzig F, Heussner KU, Hofmann J, Janda P, Kontic R, Köse N, Kyncl T, Levanic T, Linderholm H, Manning S, Melvin TM, Miles D, Neuwirth B, Nicolussi K, Nola P, Panayotov M, Popa I, Rothe A, Seftigen K, Seim A, Svarva H, Svoboda M, Thun T, Timonen M, Touchan R, Trotsiuk V, Trouet V, Walder F, WaZny T, Wilson R, Zang C. 2015. Sci Adv. 2015;1(10).
  37. 37.
    Palmer JG, Cook E, Turney CSM, Allen K, Fenwick P, Cook B, O’Donnell A, Lough J, Grierson P, Baker P. Environ Res Lett 2015;10(12):124002. Scholar
  38. 38.
    Stahle DW, Cook E, Burnette DJ, Villanueva J, Cerano J, Burns JN, Griffin D, Cook B, Acuña R, Torbenson MC, Szejner P, Howard I M. Quat Sci Rev 2016;149:34. Scholar
  39. 39.
    Baek SH, Smerdon JE, Coats S, Williams AP, Cook B, Cook E, Seager R. J Clim 2017;30(18):7141. Scholar
  40. 40.
    Coats S, Smerdon JE, Cook B, Seager R, Cook E, Anchukaitis K. Geophys Res Lett 2016;43(18):9886. Scholar
  41. 41.
    Cook E, Seager R, Heim R.R. Jr, Vose RS, Herweijer C, Woodhouse C. J Quat Sci 2010; 25 (1): 48. Scholar
  42. 42.
    Cook B, Cook E, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Williams AP, Coats S, Stahle DW, Díaz J. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang. 2016.
  43. 43.
    Woodhouse C, Overpeck J. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 1998;79(12):2693.<2693:YODVIT>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    Herweijer C, Seager R, Cook E, Emile-Geay J. J Clim 2007;20(7):1353. Scholar
  45. 45.
    Hunt BG. Int J Climatol 2011;31(10):1425. Scholar
  46. 46.
    Hunt BG. Clim Dyn. 2015;1–19
  47. 47.
    Stevenson S, Timmermann A, Chikamoto Y, Langford S, DiNezio P. J Clim 2015;28(5):1865. Scholar
  48. 48.
    Ault TR, St. George S, Smerdon JE, Coats S, Mankin JS, Carrillo CM, Cook B, Stevenson S. J Clim 2018;31(1):3. Scholar
  49. 49.
    Burgman R, Seager R, Clement A, Herweijer C. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37(6).
  50. 50.
    Feng S, Oglesby R, Rowe C, Loope DB, Hu Q. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2008;113(D11).
  51. 51.
    Oglesby R, Feng S, Hu Q, Rowe C. Glob Planet Chang 2012;84–85:56. Scholar
  52. 52.
    Seager R, Burgman R, Kushnir Y, Clement A, Cook E, Naik N, Miller J. J Clim 2008;21(23):6175. Scholar
  53. 53.
    Cook B, Seager R, Miller RL, Mason JA. J Clim 2013;26:4414. Scholar
  54. 54.
    Coats S, Smerdon JE, Cook B, Seager R. J Clim 2015;28(1):124. Scholar
  55. 55.
    Seager R, Kushnir Y, Herweijer C, Naik N, Velez J. J Clim 2005;18(19):4065. Scholar
  56. 56.
    Seager R, Hoerling M. J Clim 2014;27(12):4581. Scholar
  57. 57.
    Coats S, Smerdon JE, Karnauskas KB, Seager R. Environ Res Lett 2016;11(7):074025. Scholar
  58. 58.
    Anchukaitis K. Proc Am Philos Soc 2017;161:244.Google Scholar
  59. 59.
    Adams HD, Kolb TE. J Biogeogr 2005;32(9):1629. Scholar
  60. 60.
    Kempes C, Myers O, Breshears D, Ebersole J. J Arid Environ 2008;72(4):350. Scholar
  61. 61.
    St. George S, Meko D, Cook E. Holocene 2010;20(6):983. Scholar
  62. 62.
    Tierney JE, Ummenhofer CC, deMenocal PB. Sci Adv 2015;1(9):e1500682. Scholar
  63. 63.
    Anchukaitis K, Tierney JE. Clim Dyn 2013;41(5-6):1291. Scholar
  64. 64.
    Tierney JE, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis K, Seager R. Nature 2013;493(7432):389. Scholar
  65. 65.
    Werner JP, Tingley MP. Clim Past 2015;11(3):533. Scholar
  66. 66.
    Truebe SA, Ault TR, Cole JE. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 9. Bristol: IOP Publishing; 2010. p. 012022.Google Scholar
  67. 67.
    Huybers K, Rupper S, Roe GH. Clim Dyn. 2016;3709–3723.
  68. 68.
    Evans MN, Tolwinski-Ward SE, Thompson DM, Anchukaitis K. Quat Sci Rev 2013;76(Supplement C):16. Scholar
  69. 69.
    Anchukaitis K, Evans MN, Kaplan A, Vaganov EA, Hughes MK, Grissino-Mayer HD, Cane M. Geophys Res Lett. 2006;33(4).
  70. 70.
    Hakim GJ, Emile-Geay J, Steig EJ, Noone D, Anderson DM, Tardif R, Steiger N, Perkins WA. J Geophys Res Atmos 2016;121(12):6745. Scholar
  71. 71.
    Schmidt GA. J Quat Sci 2010;25(1):79. Scholar
  72. 72.
    Cook B, Anchukaitis K, Touchan R, Meko D, Cook E. J Geophys Res Atmos 2016;121(5):2060. Scholar
  73. 73.
    Cook B, Ault TR, Smerdon JE. Sci Adv. 2015;1(1).
  74. 74.
    Barnett TP, Hasselmann K, Chelliah M, Delworth T, Hegerl G, Jones P, Rasmusson E, Roeckner E, Ropelewski C, Santer B, Tett S. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 1999;80(12):2631.<2631:DAAORC>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. 75.
    Santer BD, Taylor KE, Wigley TML, Penner JE, Jones PD, Cubasch U. Clim Dyn 1995;12(2):77. Scholar
  76. 76.
    Stone D, Allen MR, Stott PA, Pall P, Min SK, Nozawa T, Yukimoto S. Annu Rev Environ Resour 2009;34(1):1. Scholar
  77. 77.
    Stott PA, Gillett NP, Hegerl GC, Karoly D, Stone D, Zhang X, Zwiers F. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2010;1(2):192. Scholar
  78. 78.
    Marvel K, Biasutti M, Bonfils C, Taylor KE, Kushnir Y, Cook B. J Clim 2017;30(13):4983. Scholar
  79. 79.
    Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Solomon S, Stott PA, Nozawa T. Nature 2007;448(7152):461. Scholar
  80. 80.
    Diffenbaugh NS, Singh D, Mankin JS, Horton DE, Swain DL, Touma D, Charland A, Liu Y, Haugen M, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2017;114(19):4881. Scholar
  81. 81.
    Diffenbaugh NS, Singh D, Mankin JS. Sci Adv. 2018. in press.Google Scholar
  82. 82.
    Easterling DR, Kunkel KE, Wehner MF, Sun L. Weather Clim Extrem 2016;11(Supplement C):17. Scholar
  83. 83.
    Philip S, Kew SF, van Oldenborgh GJ, Otto F, O’Keefe S, Haustein K, King A, Zegeye A, Eshetu Z, Hailemariam K, Singh R, Jjemba E, Funk C, Cullen H. 2017. J Clim.
  84. 84.
    Polade SD, Gershunov A, Cayan DR, Dettinger M, Pierce DW. Sci Rep 2017;7:10783. Scholar
  85. 85.
    Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Perlwitz J, Quan X, Zhang T, Pegion P. J Clim 2012;25(6):2146. Scholar
  86. 86.
    Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI. Environ Res Lett 2016;11(4):044005. Scholar
  87. 87.
    Gleick PH. Weather Clim Soc 2014;6(3):331. Scholar
  88. 88.
    Hendrix CS. Polit Geogr 2017;60(Supplement C):251. Scholar
  89. 89.
    Gleick PH. Polit Geogr 2017;60(Supplement C):248. Scholar
  90. 90.
    Kelley C, Mohtadi S, Cane M, Seager R, Kushnir Y. Polit Geogr 2017;60(Supplement C):245. Scholar
  91. 91.
    Selby J, Dahi OS, Fröhlich C, Hulme M. Polit Geogr 2017;60(Supplement C):232. Scholar
  92. 92.
    Wang S.Y. (Simon), Yoon J, Gillies RR, Hsu HH. The California Drought. New York: Wiley; 2017, pp. 223–235. Scholar
  93. 93.
    Savtchenko AK, Huffman G, Vollmer B. J Geophys Res Atmos 2015;120(16):8206. Scholar
  94. 94.
    Mote PW, Rupp DE, Li S, Sharp DJ, Otto F, Uhe PF, Xiao M, Lettenmaier DP, Cullen H, Allen MR. Geophys Res Lett. 2016.
  95. 95.
    Xiao M, Koppa A, Mekonnen Z, Pagán BR, Zhan S, Cao Q, Aierken A, Lee H, Lettenmaier DP. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(10):4872. Scholar
  96. 96.
    Berg N, Hall A. J Clim 2015;28(16):6324. Scholar
  97. 97.
    Wahl ER, Diaz HF, Vose RS, Gross WS. J Clim 2017;30(15):6053. Scholar
  98. 98.
    Swain DL, Singh D, Horton DE, Mankin JS, Ballard TC, Diffenbaugh NS. J Geophys Res Atmos 2017;122(22):12194. Scholar
  99. 99.
    Seager R, Henderson N, Cane M, Liu H, Nakamura J. J Clim. 2017.
  100. 100.
    Swain DL, Horton DE, Singh D, Diffenbaugh NS. Sci Adv. 2016;2(4).
  101. 101.
    Belmecheri S, Babst F, Wahl ER, Stahle DW, Trouet V. Nat Clim Chang 2016;6(1):2. Scholar
  102. 102.
    Margulis SA, Cortés G, Girotto M, Durand M. J Hydrometeorol 2016;17(4):1203. Scholar
  103. 103.
    Berg N, Hall A. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(5):2511. Scholar
  104. 104.
  105. 105.
    Seager R, Vecchi GA. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010;107(50):21277. Scholar
  106. 106.
    Harpold AA, Dettinger M, Rajagopal S. EOS. 2017;98.
  107. 107.
    Marlier ME, Xiao M, Engel R, Livneh B, Abatzoglou JT, Lettenmaier DP. Environ Res Lett 2017;12(11):114008. Scholar
  108. 108.
    Kirk JP, Sheridan SC, Schmidlin TW. Int J Climatol 2017;37(5):2424. Scholar
  109. 109.
    Woodhouse C, Pederson GT, Morino K, McAfee SA, McCabe GJ. Geophys Res Lett 2016;43(5): 2174. Scholar
  110. 110.
    Udall B, Overpeck J. Water Resour Res 2017;53(3):2404. Scholar
  111. 111.
    McCabe GJ, Wolock DM, Pederson GT, Woodhouse C, McAfee S. 2017, Earth Interact.
  112. 112.
    van Dijk AIJM, Beck HE, Crosbie RS, Beck HE, Crosbie RS, de Jeu RAM, Liu YY, Podger GM, Timbal B, Viney NR. Water Resour Res. 2013.
  113. 113.
    Ummenhofer CC, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Risbey JS, Gupta AS, Taschetto AS. 2009. Geophys Res Lett 36(4).
  114. 114.
    Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, Briggs P, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Raupach M, Risbey JS. J Clim 2011;24(5):1313. Scholar
  115. 115.
    Cai W, Purich A, Cowan T, van Rensch P, Weller E. J Clim 2014;27(9):3145. Scholar
  116. 116.
    Post DA, Timbal B, Chiew FHS, Hendon HH, Nguyen H, Moran R. Earth’s Futur 2014;2(4):231. Scholar
  117. 117.
    Theobald A, McGowan H, Speirs J. Atmos. Res. 2015. in press.
  118. 118.
    Verdon-Kidd DC, Kiem AS, Moran R. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2014;18(6):2235. Scholar
  119. 119.
    Cai W, Cowan T, Briggs P, Raupach M. Geophys Res Lett. 2009;36(21).
  120. 120.
  121. 121.
    Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW. Geophys Res Lett. 2009; 36(24).
  122. 122.
    Gallant AJE, Gergis J. Water Resour Res. 2011;47(12).
  123. 123.
    Gergis J, Gallant A, Braganza K, Karoly D, Allen K, Cullen L, D’Arrigo R, Goodwin I, Grierson P, McGregor S. Clim Chang 2012;111(3–4):923. Scholar
  124. 124.
    Cook B, Palmer JG, Cook E, Turney CSM, Allen K, Fenwick P, O’Donnell A, Lough JM, Grierson PF, Ho M, Baker PJ. J Geophys Res Atmos 2016;121(21):12820. Scholar
  125. 125.
    Giannini A, Biasutti M, Verstraete MM. Glob Planet Chang 2008;64(3):119. Climate Change and Desertification.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. 126.
    Nicholson SE. ISRN Meteorol. 2013;1.
  127. 127.
    Giannini A. 40 years of climate modeling: the causes of late-20th century drought in the Sahel. Berlin: Springer; 2016, pp. 265–291. Scholar
  128. 128.
    Booth BBB, Dunstone NJ, Halloran PR, Andrews T, Bellouin N. Nature 2012;484(7393):228. Scholar
  129. 129.
    Chang CY, Chiang JCH, Wehner MF, Friedman AR, Ruedy R. J Clim 2011;24(10):2540. Scholar
  130. 130.
    Barnett TP, Pierce DW, AchutaRao KM, Gleckler PJ, Santer BD, Gregory JM, Washington WM. Science 2005; 309 (5732): 284. Scholar
  131. 131.
    Biasutti M, Giannini A. Geophys Res Lett. 2006;33(11).
  132. 132.
    Biasutti M. J Geophys Res Atmos 2013;118(4):1613. Scholar
  133. 133.
    Nicholson SE. Rev Geophys 2017;55(3):590. Scholar
  134. 134.
    Yang W, Seager R, Cane M, Lyon B. J Clim 2014;27(19):7185. Scholar
  135. 135.
    Hoell A, Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Quan XW, Liebmann B. J Clim 2017;30(6):1939. Scholar
  136. 136.
    Otkin JA, Svoboda M, Hunt ED, Ford TW, Anderson MC, Hain C, Basara JB. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. 2017.
  137. 137.
    Svoboda M, LeComte D, Hayes M, Heim R, Gleason K, Angel J, Rippey B, Tinker R, Palecki M, Stooksbury D, Miskus D, Stephens S. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2002;83(8):1181.<1181:TDM>2.3.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  138. 138.
    Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Kumar A, Leung R, Mariotti A, Mo K, Schubert S, Seager R. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2014;95(2):269. Scholar
  139. 139.
    Otkin JA, Anderson MC, Hain C, Svoboda M, Johnson D, Mueller R, Tadesse T, Wardlow B, Brown J. Agric For Meteorol 2016;218–219:230. Scholar
  140. 140.
    Mo KC, Lettenmaier DP. J Hydrometeorol 2016;17(4):1169. Scholar
  141. 141.
    Ford TW, Labosier CF. Agric For Meteorol 2017;247:414. Scholar
  142. 142.
    Mo KC, Lettenmaier DP. Geophys Res Lett 2015;42(8):2823. Scholar
  143. 143.
    Wang L, Yuan X, Xie Z, Wu P, Li Y. Sci Rep 2016;6:30571 EP. Scholar
  144. 144.
    Zhang Y, You Q, Chen C, Li X. J Hydrol 2017;551:162. Scholar
  145. 145.
    Yuan X, Wang Y, Wood EF. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2018; 99 (1):S86. Scholar
  146. 146.
    Scheff J, Frierson DMW. J Clim 2013;27:1539. Scholar
  147. 147.
    Li D, Wrzesien ML, Durand M, Adam J, Lettenmaier DP. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(12):6163. Scholar
  148. 148.
    Mankin JS, Viviroli D, Singh D, Hoekstra AY, Diffenbaugh NS. Environ Res Lett 2015;10(11):114016. Scholar
  149. 149.
    Mankin JS, Diffenbaugh NS. Clim Dyn 2015;45(3):1099. Scholar
  150. 150.
    Berg A, Sheffield J, Milly PCD. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(1):236. Scholar
  151. 151.
    Cheng L, Hoerling M, AghaKouchak A, Livneh B, Quan XW, Eischeid J. J Clim 2016;29(1):111. Scholar
  152. 152.
    Schlaepfer DR, Bradford JB, Lauenroth WK, Munson SM, Tietjen B, Hall SA, Wilson SD, Duniway MC, Jia G, Pyke DA, Lkhagva A, Jamiyansharav K. Nat Commun 2017;8:14196 EP. Scholar
  153. 153.
    Feng S, Fu Q. Atmos Chem Phys 2013;13(19):10081. Scholar
  154. 154.
    Fu Q, Feng S. J Geophys Res Atmos 2014;119(13):7863. Scholar
  155. 155.
    Fu Q, Lin L, Huang J, Feng S, Gettelman A. J Geophys Res Atmos 2016;121(6):2857. Scholar
  156. 156.
    Scheff J, Frierson DMW. J Clim 2015;28(14):5583. Scholar
  157. 157.
    Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ. Earth-Sci Rev 2010;99(3–4):125. Scholar
  158. 158.
    Yin D, Roderick ML, Leech G, Sun F, Huang Y. Geophys Res Lett 2014;41(22):7891. Scholar
  159. 159.
    Milly PCD, Dunne KA. Nat Clim Chang 2016;6(10):946. Scholar
  160. 160.
    Feng S, Trnka M, Hayes M, Zhang Y. J Clim 2017;30(1):265. Scholar
  161. 161.
    Shukla J, Mintz Y. Science 1982;215(4539):1498. Scholar
  162. 162.
    Wei Z, Yoshimura K, Wang L, Miralles DG, Jasechko S, Lee X. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(6):2792. Scholar
  163. 163.
    Bosch JM, Hewlett JD. J Hydrol 1982;55(1):3. Scholar
  164. 164.
    Dunn SM, Mackay R. J Hydrol 1995;171(1):49. Scholar
  165. 165.
    Peel MC, McMahon TA, Finlayson BL, Watson FGR. J Hydrol 2001;250(1): 224. Scholar
  166. 166.
    Field CB, Lobell DB, Peters HA, Chiariello NR. Annu Rev Environ Resour 2007;32(1):1. Scholar
  167. 167.
    Good SP, Noone D, Bowen G. Science 2015;349(6244):175. Scholar
  168. 168.
    van der Molen MK, Dolman AJ, Ciais P, Eglin T, Gobron N, Law BE, Meir P, Peters W, Phillips OL, Reichstein M, Chen T, Dekker SC, Doubková M, Friedl MA, Jung M, van den Hurk BJJM, de Jeu RAM, Kruijt B, Ohta T, Rebel KT, Plummer S, Seneviratne SI, Sitch S, Teuling AJ, van der Werf GR, Wang G. Agric For Meteorol 2011;151(7): 765. Scholar
  169. 169.
    Teuling AJ, Seneviratne SI, Stöckli R, Reichstein M, Moors E, Ciais P, Luyssaert S, van den Hurk B, Ammann C, Bernhofer C, Dellwik E, Gianelle D, Gielen B, Grünwald T, Klumpp K, Montagnani L, Moureaux C, Sottocornola M, Wohlfahrt G. Nat Geosci 2010;3:722 EP. Scholar
  170. 170.
    Berkelhammer M, Noone DC, Wong TE, Burns SP, Knowles JF, Kaushik A, Blanken PD, Williams MW. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 2016;30(6):933. Scholar
  171. 171.
    Coenders-Gerrits AMJ, van der Ent RJ, Bogaard TA, Wang-Erlandsson L, Hrachowitz M, Savenije HHG. Nature 2014;506:E1 EP. Scholar
  172. 172.
    Zhu Z, Bi J, Pan Y, Ganguly S, Anav A, Xu L, Samanta A, Piao S, Nemani RR, Myneni RB. Remote Sens 2013;5(2):927. Scholar
  173. 173.
    Betts RA, Boucher O, Collins M, Cox PM, Falloon PD, Gedney N, Hemming DL, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ. Nature 2007;448:1037 EP. Scholar
  174. 174.
    Cheng L, Zhang L, Wang YP, Canadell JG, Chiew FHS, Beringer J, Li L, Miralles DG, Piao S, Zhang Y. Nat Commun 2017;8(1):110. Scholar
  175. 175.
    Keenan TF, Hollinger DY, Bohrer G, Dragoni D, Munger JW, Schmid HP, Richardson AD. Nature 2013;499:324 EP. Scholar
  176. 176.
    Knauer J, Zaehle S, Reichstein M, Medlyn BE, Forkel M, Hagemann S, Werner C. New Phytol 2017;213(4):1654. Scholar
  177. 177.
    Roderick ML, Greve P, Farquhar GD. Water Resour Res 2015;51(7):5450. Scholar
  178. 178.
    Sellers PJ, Bounoua L, Collatz GJ, Randall DA, Dazlich DA, Los SO, Berry JA, Fung I, Tucker CJ, Field CB, Jensen TG. Science 1996;271(5254):1402. Scholar
  179. 179.
    Donohue RJ, Roderick ML, McVicar TR, Farquhar GD. Geophys Res Lett 2013;40(12):3031. Scholar
  180. 180.
    Lu X, Wang L, McCabe MF. Sci Rep 2016;6:20716 EP. Scholar
  181. 181.
    De Kauwe MG, Medlyn BE, Zaehle S, Walker AP, Dietze MC, Hickler T, Jain AK, Luo Y, Parton WJ, Prentice IC, Smith B, Thornton PE, Wang S, Wang YP, Wårlind D, Weng E, Crous KY, Ellsworth DS, Hanson PJ, Seok Kim H, Warren JM, Oren R, Norby RJ. Glob Chang Biol 2013;19(6):1759. Scholar
  182. 182.
    Ukkola AM, Prentice IC, Keenan TF, van Dijk AIJM, Viney NR, Myneni RB, Bi J. Nat Clim Chang 2016;6(1):75. Scholar
  183. 183.
    Frank DC, Poulter B, Saurer M, Esper J, Huntingford C, Helle G, Treydte K, Zimmermann NE, Schleser GH, Ahlstrom A, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Levis S, Lomas M, Sitch S, Viovy N, Andreu-Hayles L, Bednarz Z, Berninger F, Boettger T, D‘Alessandro CM, Daux V, Filot M, Grabner M, Gutierrez E, Haupt M, Hilasvuori E, Jungner H, Kalela-Brundin M, Krapiec M, Leuenberger M, Loader NJ, Marah H, Masson-Delmotte V, Pazdur A, Pawelczyk S, Pierre M, Planells O, Pukiene R, Reynolds-Henne CE, Rinne KT, Saracino A, Sonninen E, Stievenard M, Switsur VR, Szczepanek M, Szychowska-Krapiec E, Todaro L, Waterhouse JS, Weigl M. Nat Clim Chang 2015;5(6):579. Scholar
  184. 184.
    Skinner CB, Poulsen C, Chadwick R, Diffenbaugh NS, Fiorella RP. J Clim 2017;30(7):2319. Scholar
  185. 185.
    Skinner CB, Poulsen C, Mankin JS. Nat Commun 2018;9(1): 1094. Scholar
  186. 186.
    Mankin JS, Seager R, Smerdon JE, Cook B, Williams AP, Horton R. Geophys Res Lett. 2018;45.
  187. 187.
    Hawkins E, Sutton R. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2009;90(8):1095. Scholar
  188. 188.
    Ault TR, Mankin JS, Cook B, Smerdon JE. Sci Adv. 2016;2(10).
  189. 189.
    Lehner F, Coats S, Stocker TF, Pendergrass AG, Sanderson BM, Raible CC, Smerdon JE. Geophys Res Lett 2017;44(14):7419. Scholar
  190. 190.
    Liu W, Sun F, Lim WH, Zhang J, Wang H, Shiogama H, Zhang Y. Earth Syst Dyn 2018;9(1):267. Scholar
  191. 191.
    Hessl AE, Anchukaitis K, Jelsema C, Cook B, Byambasuren O, Leland C, Nachin B, Pederson N, Tian H, Hayles LA. Sci Adv 2018;4(3):e1701832. Scholar
  192. 192.
    Anderegg WRL, Schwalm C, Biondi F, Camarero JJ, Koch G, Litvak M, Ogle K, Shaw JD, Shevliakova E, Williams AP, Wolf A, Ziaco E, Pacala S. Science 2015;349(6247):528. Scholar
  193. 193.
    Kolby Smith W, Reed SC, Cleveland CC, Ballantyne AP, Anderegg WRL, Wieder WR, Liu YY, Running SW. 2015. Nature Climate Change advance online publication.
  194. 194.
    Buckley B, Anchukaitis K, Penny D, Fletcher R, Cook E, Sano M, Nam L, Wichienkeeo A, Minh T, Hong T. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010;107(15):6748.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  195. 195.
    Lucero LJ, Gunn JD, Scarborough VL. Water 2011;3(2):479. Scholar
  196. 196.
    Pederson N, Dyer JM, McEwan RW, Hessl AE, Mock CJ, Orwig DA, Reider HE, Cook B. Ecol Monogr (in review).Google Scholar
  197. 197.
    Feitelson E, Tubi A. Glob Environ Chang 2017;44(Supplement C):39. Scholar
  198. 198.
    Mankin JS, Viviroli D, Mekonnen MM, Hoekstra AY, Horton RM, Smerdon JE, Diffenbaugh NS. Environ Res Lett 2017;12(4):044007. Scholar
  199. 199.
    von Uexkull N, Croicu M, Fjelde H, Buhaug H. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2016;113(44):12391. Scholar
  200. 200.
    Smirnov O, Zhang M, Xiao T, Orbell J, Lobben A, Gordon J. Clim Chang 2016; 138(1):41. Scholar
  201. 201.
    Moore FC, Mankin JS, Becker A. Climate cultures: anthropological perspectives on climate change. Challenges in integrating the climate and social sciences for studies of climate change impacts and adaptation. Yale University Press; 2015.

Copyright information

© This is a U.S. government work and its text is not subject to copyright protection in the United States; however, its text may be subject to foreign copyright protection 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Benjamin I. Cook
    • 1
    • 2
  • Justin S. Mankin
    • 2
    • 3
  • Kevin J. Anchukaitis
    • 4
  1. 1.NASA Goddard Institute for SpaceNew YorkUSA
  2. 2.Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisadesUSA
  3. 3.Department of GeographyDartmouth CollegeHanoverUSA
  4. 4.School of Geography and DevelopmentUniversity of ArizonaTucsonUSA

Personalised recommendations