The literature review is organized into three parts. The first part reviews the literature on decision making in the public sector in general, highlighting salient theories that have guided the field to date. The second part focuses on flood risk management governance and outlines the manner in which floodplain management occurs at the federal, state, and local levels. The final section applies a theoretical framework to understand floodplain managers’ perceptions of their community’s flood management decision making.
Decision Making in the Public Sector
Literature on decision making in the public sector has historically borrowed from and expanded on rational choice theory (Smith and Larimer 2013). This theory asserts that policymakers and public managers are able to consider all of the information provided and select the most preferred and rational decision to achieve the desired objectives (Frederickson et al. 2016). Recognizing the limitations associated with this theory, Simon (1972) introduced the notion of bounded rationality. Unlike rational choice theory, this theory asserts that individuals satisfice, meaning individuals do not seek to maximize their benefits, but aim to do what is “good enough.” Similar to Simon’s arguments, Lindblom (1959) argued that decisions are not made all at once, but instead are made incrementally or as Lindblom puts it, by “muddling through.” According to Smith and Larimer (2013), policymakers and practitioners tend to prefer incremental changes to highly unfamiliar changes or to societal issues that require large and intricate solutions. Despite being over half a century old, these theories persist today and are relevant to the discussion on floodplain management. Consistent with these theories floodplain managers satisfice when it comes to making decisions on how best to manage flood risks. Moreover, policies regarding floodplain management are developed and implemented incrementally, especially those aimed at addressing climate change impacts.
Flood Risk Management Governance
In the United States, floodplain management is a function at the federal, state, and local levels. Local governments hold most of the flood management and flood regulation responsibilities, state governments act as intermediaries between the federal and local governments, and the federal government primarily focuses on developing high-level policies to address flood risks (Galloway 2008). Local governments develop, implement, and oversee community floodplain management programs and regulate development in flood-prone areas (Association of State Floodplain Managers 2010; FEMA 2013). There are several requirements for local communities that participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) (FEMA 2013). These communities, for example, have a designated floodplain manager who oversees floodplain management requirements, determines whether proposed developments are in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) (areas with a 1% chance of flooding in any given year), and makes floodplain permitting and development decisions. Local governments assist in preparing and revising floodplain maps and maintaining records for permits, inspections, and enforcement actions. Currently, roughly 22,000 communities participate in the NFIP (FEMA 2017). The local governments also have primary responsibility to inform residents of floodplain hazards and determine whether building improvements are significant enough to meet permit and compliance requirements (FEMA 2013).
State governments are less involved in floodplain management, but still play an important role. The NFIP State Coordinating Agency is the organizational home for the state floodplain managers who serve as a liaison between local and federal flood management offices. State governors are responsible for designating an agency to serve as the NFIP State Coordinating Agency (FEMA 2013). State floodplain managers have a broad statewide focus and serve a function similar to that of local floodplain managers. The state floodplain managers work with local governments to encourage NFIP participation and offer support and technical assistance to communities (FEMA 2013). They also assist in defining flood-prone areas, notifying FEMA of any problems with communities, and support local communities in their own floodplain management regulations, from development to implementation (FEMA 2013).
The federal government has macro-level responsibilities for floodplain management. Federal floodplain managers set flood management policy and manage the NFIP as well as other programs aimed at reducing flood losses. The federal floodplain managers operate primarily within the Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration (FIMA) at FEMA. Their duties include implementing the NFIP, which consists of flood hazard identification, floodplain management, and flood insurance, among other responsibilities (FEMA 2013). FEMA has 10 regional offices that are responsible for helping NFIP State Coordinating Agencies, advising local floodplain managers, and assessing community compliance with the NFIP (FEMA 2013). The floodplain managers who operate within these 10 regions provide information and training, and work with states and communities to resolve any issues occurring at the local level, revising flood hazard maps, and answering questions and providing information about flood insurance (FEMA 2013).
This study focused on local floodplain managers in the United States by examining their perceptions of the quality of their community’s flood management decision-making processes. To do so, we applied the main tenets of Terpstra and Lindell’s (2013) Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), which remains a common decision-making tool within the disaster management literature.
Applying the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM)
PADM is a framework used for understanding protective human behavior and decision making during a disaster or threatening event (Strahan and Watson 2019; Liddle et al. 2020). The model was originally developed to understand how people take protective actions when confronted with environmental threats, but it has recently been applied more broadly to understand how people respond to risks in multiple contexts (Liu et al. 2019). At the core of the PADM, hazard-related and resource-related attributes impact decisions and behavior in anticipation of disasters (Terpstra and Lindell 2013). Whereas hazard-related attributes include the perceived efficacy of protecting people and property and “describe the relationship between the hazard adjustment and the hazard” (Terpstra and Lindell 2013, p. 996), resource-related attributes consist of the perceived requirements for resources (for example, time, money, knowledge, and so on) and “describe the relationship between the hazard adjustment and the household’s resources” (Terpstra and Lindell 2013, p. 996). According to the PADM, a greater number of hazard-related attributes increases the likelihood of the adoption of protective actions and a greater number of resource-related attributes decrease the likelihood of the adoption of protective actions (Terpstra and Lindell 2013).
More recent developments of the PADM explore decision-making processes in multiple phases, although individuals do not necessarily follow every step in the model sequentially (Lindell and Perry 2012; Heath et al. 2018). Before individuals can take protective action, they must be warned of the risk and understand the information (Lindell and Perry 2012). During the pre-decision stage, people experience exposure, attention, and comprehension and this is influenced by many factors like environmental cues, social cues, and warning messages (Heath et al. 2018). Past tornado warnings, for example, were not understood by people who spoke Spanish since the warning was in English, impeding comprehension and affecting the pre-decision (Lindell and Perry 2012). Following the pre-decision, threat perception, protective action perceptions, and stakeholder perceptions occur simultaneously (Lindell and Perry 2012). During this stage, individuals decide whether a real threat exists, the needs for protective actions, and how they are viewing the issue (Strahan and Watson 2019). Theoretically, the perceptions should inform whether and how individuals act when faced with a threat (Heath et al. 2018). Perceptions ultimately inform information search strategies and protective action decision making, which eventually results in a behavioral response (Strahan and Watson 2019). However, once a behavioral response is initiated the process is not over; instead, it loops back to the beginning stages of the PADM (Strahan and Watson 2019). These cycles continue until individuals have enough information to make protective action decisions (Strahan and Watson 2019).
The PADM has been applied to a variety of hazards and in a number of contexts. Lindell and Prater (2002), for example, applied the PADM to examine individuals’ adoption of seismic hazard adjustments in Southern California and Western Washington. Data gathered from 561 individuals revealed that hazard-related attributes are significantly related to seismic hazard adjustments adoption; no significant relationship was found between resource-related attributes and seismic hazard adjustments adoption (Lindell and Prater 2002). Ge et al. (2011) used the PADM to predict intentions to adopt hurricane mitigation measures among Florida households. The results of this study indicate that the adoption of hurricane mitigation measures was strongly related to hazard intrusiveness (that is, how often hurricanes and hurricane safety are discussed and how often people think of these issues) and the perceived hurricane risk. The results also indicated that worry was significantly related to the adoption of hurricane mitigation measures, albeit to a lesser extent. Scholars have also applied the PADM specifically to the field of flood risk management. Terpstra and Lindell (2013), for example, used data gathered from more than 1,000 individuals to explore intentions to adopt flood preparedness measures. In line with the PADM, the authors found a positive relationship between hazard-related attributes and the intention to adopt flood preparedness measures (Terpstra and Lindell 2013). Their results did not, however, reveal a negative relationship between resource-related attributes and the intention to adopt flood preparedness measures.
While the PADM historically is focused on householders’ decision-making processes, we used the model in this study as a framework for understanding perceptions of the quality of flood management decision making. We did not aim to empirically test the validity of the PADM, but rather applied the main tenets of the theory to understand the factors that influence floodplain managers’ perceptions. Applying household disaster-related theories to other units, such as organizations or communities, is common (Tyler et al. 2020).
We contend that hazard- and resource-related attributes will influence floodplain managers’ perceptions of the quality of their decision making. We examined two hazard-related attributes—perceptions of flood concern and flood problems—and three resource-related attributes—employee tenure, number of full-time employees, and participation in FEMA’s Community Rating System (CRS) program. Whereas employee tenure is measured at the individual level, the number of full-time employees is measured at the organizational level. FEMA’s CRS program is a voluntary flood risk management program implemented in 1990 as a way to incentivize communities to engage in more flood mitigation measures. As communities adopt these measures, they obtain credit points, which in turn allow community members to receive discounted flood insurance premiums. We included participation in FEMA’s CRS program as an example of resource-related attribute because studies have consistently shown that communities with more resources are significantly more likely to participate in the program (Tyler et al. 2020). Part of the benefit of participation in the CRS is access to resources (for example, expertise from FEMA and CRS User Groups) (Posey 2009; Sadiq and Noonan 2015; Sadiq et al. 2020).
In line with the PADM, we suggest that there is a positive relationship between floodplain managers’ perceptions of their community’s level of concern for flooding, as well as the extent to which flooding is a problem in their community, and their perceptions of the quality of their decision-making processes. We also posit that there is a relationship between resource-related attributes and floodplain managers’ perceptions. Specifically, we hypothesize that employee tenure, number of full-time employees, and CRS participation will influence floodplain managers’ perceptions. Given the inconsistent findings in regard to resource-related variables, we do not specify the direction of the relationship. Based on the ongoing discussion, this study specifically tested two hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1
Floodplain managers’ perceptions of flood concern and flood problems are positively and significantly related to perceptions of the quality of flood management decision-making processes.
Hypothesis 2
Employee tenure, number of full-time employees, and CRS participation are significantly related to floodplain managers’ perceptions of the quality of flood management decision-making processes.