Abstract
Severe storms in 2005 along the U.S. Gulf Coast illuminated the importance of blending stakeholder and agency efforts in an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning. Risk management policy relies on the information provided by decision-makers and stakeholders on their risk perceptions and behavior. The flood risk management process for layperson, non-U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) experts, and two USACE expert groups were studied through a literature review and the creation of two expert models. Recommendations to both incorporate and alter stakeholder perceptions of flood risks were identified by characterizing and mapping stakeholders’ perceptions about the risks as described in the literature. This chapter will discuss mental models in the context of the USACE’s need for flood preparedness and response.
This chapter is adapted from work by Wood et al. (2012). Flood risk management: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and layperson perceptions. Risk Analysis, 32(8), 1349–1368. Special thanks to Dr. Todd Bridges, Senior Research Scientist, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, for his contributions to this chapter.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bostrom, A. M., Morgan, G., Fischhoff, B., & Read, D. (1994). What do people know about global climate change? 1. Mental models. Risk Analysis, 14(6), 959–979.
Buckland, J., & Rahman, M. (1999). Community‐based disaster management during the 1997 Red River Flood in Canada. Disasters, 23(2), 174–191.
Clark, D. E., Novotny, V., Griffin, R., Booth, D., Bartosova, A., Daun, M. C., et al. (2002). Willingness to pay for flood and ecological risk reduction in an urban watershed. Water Science and Technology, 45(9), 235–242.
Cigler, B. A. (2007). The “big questions” of Katrina and the 2005 great flood of New Orleans. Public Administration Review, 67, 64–76.
Thorne, S. L., Darisi, T., & Iacobelli, C. (2005). Influences on decision-making regarding having plastic surgery: A mental models and quantitative assessment: P32. Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, 116(3), 158–159.
Downs, J. S., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). Parents’ vaccination comprehension and decisions. Vaccine, 26, 1595–1607.
Doyle, J. K., & Ford, D. N. (1999). Mental models concepts revisited: Some clarifications and a reply to Lane. System Dynamics Review, 15(4), 411–415.
Faulkner, H., Parker, D., Green, C., & Beven, K. (2007). Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner. Ambio, 36(8), 692–703.
Fischetti, M. (2001). Drowning New Orleans. Scientific American, 285(4), 76–85.
Fleming, G. (2002a). How can we learn to live with rivers? The findings of the Institution of Civil Engineers Presidential Commission on flood-risk management. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 360(1796), 1527–1530.
Fleming, G. (2002b). Learning to live with rivers—the ICE’s report to government. Proceedings of the ICE-Civil Engineering, 150(5), 15–21.
Gheytanchi, A., Joseph, L., Gierlach, E., Kimpara, S., Housley, J., Franco, Z. E., & Beutler, L. E. (2007). The dirty dozen: twelve failures of the Hurricane Katrina response and how psychology can help. American Psychologist, 62(2), 118.
Hecker, E. J., Zepp, L. J., & Olsen, J. R. (2008). Improving public safety in the United States—from federal protection to shared flood risk reduction. Presented at the European Conference on Flood Risk Management. Oxford, UK: Keble College.
Hill, S. D., & Thompson, D. (2006). Understanding managers’ views of global environmental risk. Environmental Management, 37(6), 773–787.
Johnson, B. L. (2005). Hurricane Katrina and that vexing ‘what if?’ question. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 11(6), 1081–1082.
Johnson, B. B., & Slovic, P. (1998). Lay views on uncertainty in environmental health risk assessment. Journal of Risk Research, 1(4), 261–279.
Kolkman, M. J., van der Veen, A., & Geurts, P. A. T. M. (2007). Controversies in water management: Frames and mental models. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 27(7), 685–706.
Lave, T. R., & Lave, L. B. (1991). Public perception of the risks of floods: Implications for communication. Risk analysis, 11(2), 255–267.
Linkov I, Wood M. D., Bridges T, Kovacs D., Thorne S., & Butte, G. (2009). Presented at the 2009 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics. San Antonio, TX.
Lowe, T. D., & Lorenzoni, I. (2007). Danger is all around: Eliciting expert perceptions for managing climate change through a mental models approach. Global Environmental Change, 17(1), 131–146.
Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., & Atman, C. (2002). Risk communication: A mental models approach. New York: Cambridge University Press.
National Research Council. (2008). First Report from the NRC Committee on the Review of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration (LACPR) Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Palmgren, C. R., Morgan, M. G., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Keith, D. W. (2004). Initial public perceptions of deep geological and oceanic disposal of carbon dioxide. Environmental Science & Technology, 38(24), 6441–6450.
Pielke, R. A., Jr. (1999). Nine fallacies of floods. Climatic Change, 42(2), 413–438.
Rabbon, P. D., Zepp, L. J., & Olsen, J. R. (2008). One nation, one policy, one program flood risk management. Presented at the European Conference on Flood Risk Management. Keble College, Oxford, UK.
Rasid, H., & Haider, W. (2002). Floodplain residents’ preferences for non-structural flood alleviation measures in the Red River basin, Manitoba, Canada. Water International, 27(1), 132–151.
Read, D., Bostrom, A., Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., & Smuts, T. (1994). What do people know about global climate change? 2. Survey studies of educated laypeople. Risk Analysis, 14(6), 971–982.
Regnier, E., & Harr, P. A. (2006). A dynamic decision model applied to hurricane landfall. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 764–780.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District (2008). Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Technical Report Draft.
U.S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources. (2009). Value to the nation: Flood risk management. Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Vari, A., Linnerooth‐Bayer, J., & Ferencz, Z. (2003). Stakeholder views on flood risk management in Hungary’s Upper Tisza Basin. Risk Analysis, 23(3), 585–600.
Wagner, K. (2007). Mental models of flash floods and landslides. Risk Analysis, 27(3), 671–682.
Wood, M., Kovacs, D., Bostrom, A., Bridges, T., & Linkov, I. (2012). Flood risk management: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and layperson perceptions. Risk Analysis, 32(8), 1349–1368.
Wood, M., Mukherjee, A., Bridges, T., & Linkov, I. (2009). A mental modeling approach to study decision-making in dynamic task environments. Construction Stakeholder Management, 240.
Working Group for Post-Hurricane Planning for the Louisiana Coast. (2006). A New Framework for Planning the Future of Coastal Louisiana after the Hurricanes of 2005. Cambridge, MD: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.
Yoe, C. (1993). National Economic Development Procedures Manual: National Economic Development Costs. West Chester, PA: Greely-Polhemus Group, IWR Report 93-R-12.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Wood, M.D., Linkov, I., Kovacs, D., Butte, G. (2017). Flood Risk Management. In: Mental Modeling Approach. Risk, Systems and Decisions. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-6616-5_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-6616-5_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4939-6614-1
Online ISBN: 978-1-4939-6616-5
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)