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Adopting agronomic strategies to enhance the adaptation of global rice production to future climate change: a meta-analysis

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Abstract

The impact of climate change on rice yield varies among different rice varieties. Designing effective agronomic adaptation strategies is crucial for global rice provision. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to which approaches/strategies should be used in different regions. To this end, we conducted a meta-analysis aimed at quantifying firstly the marginal effects of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and CO2) and four adaptation strategies (i.e., changing varieties, adjusting fertilization, adjusting irrigation, and altering planting dates) on rice yield in Indica, Japonica, and Hybrid rice. We further assessed climate risks to rice yield and identified optimum adaptation strategies under three shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results of the meta-analysis showed that temperature has the greatest negative marginal effect of −3.11% on rice yield, with changing varieties being the most effective strategy (15.93%) to counter this effect, followed by increased irrigation (0.24%). Projected climate scenarios predict a 2.11% global average rice yield decrease in the 2040s under SSP5-8.5. Japonica rice yields are significantly more pessimistic than Indica and Hybrid rice. To offset this, 86.48% of the rice planting area would need to change varieties; increase fertilization and irrigation by 51.22% and 8.54%, respectively; or plant in advance by 13 days. Major rice-producing countries such as India, China, and Brazil will need adaptation strategies with higher urgency and scale than the global average. These findings form a basis for a better understanding of climate resilience in different rice varieties and agronomic strategies. Our analysis suggests that it is possible for future rice yield to meet the needs of rice-growing countries while supporting eco-friendly rice production if the appropriate measures are taken. Overall, this study attempts firstly to design effective agronomic adaptation strategies to enhance rice production resilience against climate change and advance understanding of rice varietal adaptation for improved management.

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Funding

This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 31861143015 and no.4227071576).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Saiya Li, Feng Wu & Yali Zhang

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Saiya Li, Feng Wu & Yali Zhang

  3. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China

    Qing Zhou

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  1. Saiya Li
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  2. Feng Wu
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  3. Qing Zhou
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  4. Yali Zhang
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Contributions

Zhang Yali and Wu Feng: conceptualization, methodology, and software. Li Saiya and Zhou Qing: data curation and writing—original draft preparation. Li Saiya: visualization and investigation. Zhang Yali: supervision. Wu Feng and Zhou Qing: software and validation. Zhang Yali and Li Saiya: writing—reviewing and editing

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Correspondence to Yali Zhang.

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Li, S., Wu, F., Zhou, Q. et al. Adopting agronomic strategies to enhance the adaptation of global rice production to future climate change: a meta-analysis. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 44, 23 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-024-00963-7

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