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Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China

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Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Peter G. Jones for supplying the MarkSim model.

Funding

This research was supported by the Research and Development Fund of Zhejiang Agriculture and Forest University (2014FR041), the Special Program for Agriculture Science and Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture in China (201303109), and funding by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31701322 and 31401278).

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  1. Zunfu Lv

    Present address: Department of Agronomy, The Key Laboratory for Quality Improvement of Agricultural Products of Zhejiang Province, College of Agriculture and Food Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Lin’an, Hangzhou, 311300, People’s Republic of China

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agronomy, The Key Laboratory for Quality Improvement of Agricultural Products of Zhejiang Province, College of Agriculture and Food Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Lin’an, Hangzhou, 311300, People’s Republic of China

    Feifei Li

  2. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, 1 Weigang Road, Nanjing, 210095, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China

    Yan Zhu, Xiaojun Liu & Yongchao Tian

  3. Institute of Digital Agriculture, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shiqiao Rd, Zhejiang, 310021, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China

    Hongbao Ye

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  1. Zunfu Lv
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Correspondence to Zunfu Lv.

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Lv, Z., Zhu, Y., Liu, X. et al. Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China. Climatic Change 147, 523–537 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0

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