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Heavy metal pollution and health risk assessment using deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation approaches in the Himalayan spring and surface water systems of Kulgam District, Kashmir valley, India

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Abstract

It is indispensable to examine heavy metals in water resources due to their incorporation in the food chain, hence the possibility of harmful impact on human health. In this study, degree of heavy metal contamination is investigated in the Himalayan surface and spring water systems of the Kulgam district, India. This study examines 16 heavy metals which include V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, As, Rb, Sr, Zr, Mo, Ba, and Pb. Among the analyzed parameters, Pb (100%, n = 30) and Fe (13.3%, n = 4) in springs was found above the desirable limits of drinking water. The heavy metal pollution index (HPI) results demonstrated that both the surface and spring water resources are at high-risk zone with HPI > 100. Based on the degree of contamination (Cd), surface and spring water system falls in the medium and high-risk zones. The results of health risk evaluation based on deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) showed hazard index (HI) > 1 and the probability of total cancer risk (TCR) for adults and children in both the water systems was found above the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) threshold value of 1.0E-04. Principal component analysis (PCA) estimated origin of heavy metals, and results showed that natural geogenic processes such as rock–water interaction or mineral dissolution and anthropogenic activities are responsible for heavy metal concentration in the surface and spring water systems.

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The analyzed data which support the findings of this study are available in the material of this article and also available as supplementary file.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the editors and reviewers for their valuable suggestions and comments which have improved the manuscript substantially. We would also like to acknowledge Central Research Facility, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (CRF-IIT Delhi) for heavy metal analysis. Akhtar Jahan, a Ph.D. scholar at IIT Roorkee is acknowledge for assisting in Monte Carlo Simulation analysis.

Funding

The first author would like to acknowledge University Grant Commission (UGC) Government of India for providing PhD fellowship during this work.

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All authors’ contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and evaluation is performed by Fahim Un Nisa. The first draft of the manuscript is written by Fahim Un Nisa and Rashid Umar. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Rashid Umar.

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Nisa, F.U., Umar, R. Heavy metal pollution and health risk assessment using deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation approaches in the Himalayan spring and surface water systems of Kulgam District, Kashmir valley, India. Environ Earth Sci 83, 278 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11575-5

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