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Freshwater resource characterization and vulnerability to climate change of the Shela aquifer in Lamu, Kenya

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Abstract

Salinization of coastal groundwater systems causes a severe deterioration both in amount and quality of fresh groundwater resources. To support the sustainable use and management of fresh groundwater, quantification and characterization of these coastal resources are important in view of the population growth anticipated in many African countries. Analytical methods were used to determine: (1) the shape and volume of the freshwater lens, (2) the elevation of the water table, (3) the depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Shela aquifer, and (4) the expected change of volume resulting from change of recharge and sea level rise driven by climate change. The results of the analytical modelling have shown that the average hydraulic conductivity is 0.755 m/d, the average water table elevation is 2 m above sea level and the average depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface is -80 m.a.s.l. The volume of the aquifer is ≈124 × 106 m3 when discharge from the Shela well field is factored in. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the recharge and ultimately the aquifer’s volume; under the A1b conditions, the volume is expected to increase to 199 × 106 m3 whereas in the A2 scenario it is expected to decrease to 27 × 106 m3. The saltwater intrusion indicator M for today’s conditions (0.004) decreases to 0.5 M in the A1b scenario by 2100 whilst it increases to 24.9 M in the A2 scenario for the same time period, indicating an extremely higher vulnerability to saltwater intrusion in the latter scenario. A simple linear correlation with the expected population growth of 1.25 million people by 2050 shows the aquifer failing as a water source by 2033.

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Acknowledgments

This research was carried out as part of the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate Program in Marine and Coastal Management primarily in the University of Bologna’s Ravenna campus in the Integrated Geoscience Research Group (I.G.R.G.) which part of Interdepartmental Centre for Environmental Sciences Research (CIRSA). Thank you to all my colleagues for the support they have given me throughout the research period. A special mention is reserved for University of Cadiz for the coordination/administration of the program.

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  1. IGRG (Integrated Geoscience Research Group), University of Bologna, Via San Alberto 128, 48100, Ravenna, Italy

    Cornelius Okello, Marco Antonellini & Nicolas Greggio

  2. University of Cadiz, Polígono San Pedro s/n, Aulario Norte, Puerto Real, 11519, Cadiz, Spain

    Cornelius Okello

  3. Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, P.O. Box 81651-80100, Mombasa, Kenya

    Nina Wambiji

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  1. Cornelius Okello
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Correspondence to Cornelius Okello.

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Okello, C., Antonellini, M., Greggio, N. et al. Freshwater resource characterization and vulnerability to climate change of the Shela aquifer in Lamu, Kenya. Environ Earth Sci 73, 3801–3817 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3665-z

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