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Landslide susceptibility assessment in Apulian Southern Apennine: heuristic vs. statistical methods

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Abstract

In this paper, a bivariate-heuristic model (modified Stevenson’s method) and two multivariate statistical procedures (discriminant analysis and logistic regression) were used in order to assess and map landslide susceptibility in the north-western side of Daunia region (Apulia, Southern Italy). The whole Daunia region is characterized by complex and composite landslides, which are located on clayey slopes, near urban centers, affecting structures and infrastructures. The high predisposition to landsliding of the Daunia hillslopes is related to the very poor strength properties of clayey formations. The comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility using different methods, on the same test site and with the same inventory map allowed understanding the dependence of the results from the dataset and the capability of models under different levels of use, from expert to simple operator. By comparing the performance of the three models through the success rate curves, it emerges that the simple modified Stevenson’s method produces reliable outcomes, comparable with those deriving from more complex multivariate statistical models. This result is related to the characteristics of clayey slopes, in which the landslide occurrence is so much controlled by the poor strength properties of the clayey formations that the multivariate analysis of a large set of morphometric, geological and land-use variables results to be somehow superfluous. This suggests that, for clayey slopes, a simple, easy-to-manage bivariate-heuristic model based on expert opinion can be used with reliable results.

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Acknowledgments

This work is part of the PhD research of Roberta Pellicani and within the project PRIN08, coordinated by Prof. Giuseppe Spilotro. The authors wish to express their gratitude to the River Basin Authority of Apulia for providing them the available base regional maps.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of European and Mediterranean Cultures, University of Basilicata, Matera, Italy

    Roberta Pellicani & Giuseppe Spilotro

  2. Department of Geologic Sciences and Geotechnologies, University of Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy

    Paolo Frattini

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  1. Roberta Pellicani
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  2. Paolo Frattini
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  3. Giuseppe Spilotro
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Correspondence to Roberta Pellicani.

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Pellicani, R., Frattini, P. & Spilotro, G. Landslide susceptibility assessment in Apulian Southern Apennine: heuristic vs. statistical methods. Environ Earth Sci 72, 1097–1108 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-3026-3

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