Skip to main content

Analysis of spatial variation of temperature trends in the semiarid Euphrates basin using statistical approaches

Abstract

This study analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution of trends on monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperatures (1967–2017) at 22 stations in the Euphrates Basin of Turkey. The recently proposed innovative trend analysis (ITA) and the nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) test at 5% and 1% significance levels were applied to examine the temporal trends of temperatures. Before using the nonparametric trend analysis, the serial correlation of the temperature data was removed with the pre-whitening (PW) method. Then, MK-Z values were mapped in ArcGIS environment using the Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) method to reveal the spatial variation of temperature trends. As a result, according to the ITA method, increasing temperature trends at 1% significance level dominate almost all periods. Based on the MK and SR tests, it was identified that increase trends were dominant at 1% and 5% significance levels in February, March, April, July, August, Spring, Summer, and Annual periods. According to the spatial temperature trend maps, significant increase trends occupy an important place in most of the basin in February, March, April, June, July, August, Spring, Summer, Winter, and Annual periods. The study results provide important information to water resources managers and decision-makers about the regions at significant risk in climate change in the Euphrates Basin.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Data availability

Data will be made available upon reasonable request.

References

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the General Directorate of Meteorology for the observed monthly temperature data provided, the Editor, and the anonymous reviewers for their contributions to the content and development of this paper.

Funding

No funding was received for conducting this study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

O.M. Katipoğlu solely made the study.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Okan Mert Katipoğlu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

The manuscript complies with all the ethical requirements, and the paper was not published to any journal.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Additional information

Edited by Dr. Ankit Garg (ASSOCIATE EDITOR) / Dr. Michael Nones (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF).

Appendix

Appendix

See Figs. 9, 10, 11, 12, Table 4.

Fig. 9
figure 9

Graphical evaluation of ITA method results of temporal temperature at Mardin station

Fig. 10
figure 10

Graphical evaluation of ITA method results of temporal temperature at Ağrı station

Fig. 11
figure 11

Graphical evaluation of ITA method results of temporal temperature at Elazığ station

Fig. 12
figure 12

Graphical evaluation of ITA method results of temporal temperature at Gaziantep station

Table 4 ITA slope results

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Katipoğlu, O.M. Analysis of spatial variation of temperature trends in the semiarid Euphrates basin using statistical approaches. Acta Geophys. 70, 1899–1921 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00819-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00819-2

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Mann–Kendall (MK)
  • Temperature trend
  • Şen’s innovative trend analysis (ITA)
  • Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK)
  • Euphrates Basin