Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Annual Trends of Precipitation and Temperature in the Northwestern Part of Turkey Using Innovative Approaches: A Holistic and Partial Study

  • Published:
Pure and Applied Geophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Trend analysis benefits collecting and analyzing reliable data in climate change studies. In this context, long-term temperature and precipitation data analysis, two variables sensitive to climate change, is essential. This study aims to holistically and partially determine the annual trends of precipitation and temperature time series for 1970–2019 at nine selected stations in the Susurluk Basin, Turkey. The innovative trend significance test (ITST), innovative crossing trend analysis (ICTA) method, and Mann-Kendall (MK) test were used to determine holistic trends. Also, partial trends were determined using successive average methodology (SAM). For the precipitation variable, while an increasing trend was determined for the ITST, there was mostly no trend for the other methods. While a strong increasing trend was detected for the temperature according to the ITST and MK methods, no trend was observed in any station according to the ICTA method. According to the SAM results, the maximum trend durations for the peak and trough change points were 4.9 (10.3) and 5.3 (8.4) years, respectively, for precipitation (temperature). The strong temperature trends in the basin will likely continue, requiring precautions against extreme events such as drought.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

Availability of Data and Materials

Some or all data that support this study's findings are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Code Availability

The models or codes used to develop this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

References

  • Acar, E., Kankal, M., Akçay, F., & Şan, M. (2022). Innovative polygon trend analyses with star graph for rainfall and temperature data in agricultural regions of Turkey. Environmental Earth Sciences, 81(23), 530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmadi, F., Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Mirabbasi, R., Khalili, K., & Jhajharia, D. (2018). Spatiotemporal trend and abrupt change analysis of temperature in Iran. Meteorological Applications, 25(2), 314–321.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akçay, F., Kankal, M., & Şan, M. (2022). Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 67(2), 222–247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Albayrak, S., Caglar, S., Mulayim, A., Kurt-Sahin, G., Balkis, H., Cinar, N. F., & Bahceci, H. (2019). A case study: ecological quality status of Susurluk river basin (Marmara Sea). Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 28(2), 769–776.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alifujiang, Y., Abuduwaili, J., & Ge, Y. (2021). Trend analysis of annual and seasonal river runoff by using innovative trend analysis with significant test. Water, 13(1), 95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen M, Babiker M, Chen Y, et al (2018) Summary for Policymakers Global Warming of 1.5 C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Geneva, Switzerland

  • Arias, P., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Zickfeld, K. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Technical Summary.

  • Ay, M. (2020). Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(3–4), 837–848.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ay, M., & Kisi, O. (2015). Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120, 617–629.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayazit, M., & Önöz, B. J. H. S. J. (2007). To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(4), 611–624.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bickici Arikan, B., & Kahya, E. (2019). Homogeneity revisited: analysis of updated precipitation series in Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(1–2), 211–220.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BISO (2020). Bursa Investment Support Office. https://bursainvest.gov.tr/ (Accessed 21 Dec 2020).

  • Buyukyildiz, M. (2023). Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates-Tigris River Basin of Türkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches. Applied Water Science, 13(2), 38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero, T. (2020). Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(1–2), 493–504.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero, T., Coscarelli, R., & Ferrari, E. (2018). Application of the innovative trend analysis method for the trend analysis of rainfall anomalies in southern Italy. Water Resources Management, 32, 4971–4983.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ceribasi, G., & Aytulun, U. (2020). Investigation of the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature data of Susurluk basin and Van Lake Closed Basin. International Journal of Global Warming, 22(1), 54–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ceribasi, G., & Ceyhunlu, A. I. (2021). Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(5), 1532–1543.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, N. (2021a). Analysis of temperature data by using innovative polygon trend analysis and trend polygon star concept methods: A case study for Susurluk Basin, Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 69, 1949–1961.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, N. (2021b). Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM): A case study for precipitation data of Susurluk Basin in Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 69(4), 1465–1480.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cui, L., Wang, L., Lai, Z., Tian, Q., Liu, W., & Li, J. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 164, 48–59.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dammo, M. N., Yadima, S. G., & Sangodoyin, A. Y. (2016). Observed trend of changes in relative humidity across North-East Nigeria (1981–2010). Civil and Environmental Research, 8, 73–76.

    Google Scholar 

  • Danandeh Mehr, A., Hrnjica, B., Bonacci, O., & Torabi Haghighi, A. (2021). Innovative and successive average trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Osijek Croatia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145(3–4), 875–890.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dorum, A., Yarar, A., Sevimli, M. F., & Onüçyildiz, M. (2010). Modelling the rainfall–runoff data of susurluk basin. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(9), 6587–6593.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esit, M. (2023). Investigation of innovative trend approaches (ITA with significance test and IPTA) comparing to the classical trend method of monthly and annual hydro-meteorological variables: A case study of Ankara region, Turkey. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(1), 305–329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GDNCNP (2020). General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks. http://kuscenneti.tabiat.gov.tr/ (Accessed 12 Dec 2020)

  • Gumus, V., Avsaroglu, Y., & Simsek, O. (2022). Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann−Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods. Journal of Earth System Science, 131(1), 34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gumus, V., Simsek, O., & Avsaroglu, Y. (2023). Evaluation of long-term monthly mean streamflow trend in the Mediterranean basins using different methods. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 151(3–4), 1369–1382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haltas, I., Yildirim, E., Oztas, F., & Demir, I. (2021). A comprehensive flood event specification and inventory: 1930–2020 Turkey case study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 56, 102086.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hussain, M., & Mahmud, I. (2019). pyMannKendall: A python package for non parametric Mann Kendall family of trend tests. Journal of Open Source Software, 4(39), 1556.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods.Griffin, London.

  • Kron, W., Eichner, J., & Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2019). Reduction of flood risk in Europe-reflections from a reinsurance perspective. Journal of Hydrology, 576, 197–209.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J., & Thurner, K. (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374(1–2), 171–183.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mallick, J., Talukdar, S., Alsubih, M., Salam, R., Ahmed, M., Kahla, N. B., & Shamimuzzaman, M. (2021). Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 143, 823–841.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica Journal of the Econometric Society, 13, 245–259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez-Austria, P. F., Bandala, E. R., & Patiño-Gómez, C. (2016). Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts a/b/c, 91, 20–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nourani, V., Danandeh Mehr, A., & Azad, N. (2018). Trend analysis of hydroclimatological variables in Urmia lake basin using hybrid wavelet Mann-Kendall and Şen tests. Environmental Earth Sciences, 77, 1–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nyikadzino, B., Chitakira, M., & Muchuru, S. (2020). Rainfall and runoff trend analysis in the Limpopo river basin using the Mann Kendall statistic. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts a/b/c, 117, 102870.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Odemis, B., & Evrendilek, F. (2007). Monitoring water quality and quantity of national watersheds in Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 133, 215–229.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Radziejewski, M. (2010). About trend detection in river floods. In extremis: disruptive events and trends in climate and hydrology, 144–165.

  • Salami, A. W., Ikpee, O. D., Ibitoye, A. B., & Oritola, S. F. (2016). Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables in the coastal area of Lagos using Mann-Kendall trend and Standard Anomaly Index methods. Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, 20(3), 797–808.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şan, M., Akçay, F., Linh, N. T. T., Kankal, M., & Pham, Q. B. (2021). Innovative and polygonal trend analyses applications for rainfall data in Vietnam. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 144, 809–822.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sang, Y. F., Wang, Z., & Liu, C. (2014). Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 293–298.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanikhani, H., Kisi, O., Mirabbasi, R., & Meshram, S. G. (2018). Trend analysis of rainfall pattern over the Central India during 1901–2010. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11, 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen, Z. (1991). Probabilistic modelling of crossing in small samples and application of runs to hydrology. Journal of Hydrology, 124(3–4), 345–362.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042–1046.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen, Z. (2017). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127, 939–947.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen, Z. (2018). Crossing trend analysis methodology and application for Turkish rainfall records. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131, 285–293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen, Z. (2019). Partial trend identification by change-point successive average methodology (SAM). Journal of Hydrology, 571, 288–299.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SMDA (2020). South Marmara Development Agency. https://www.gmka.gov.tr/ (Accessed 21 Dec 2020)

  • Tabari, H. (2020). Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tosunoglu, F., Can, I., & Kahya, E. (2018). Evaluation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale atmospheric oscillations and meteorological drought indexes in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 38(12), 4579–4596.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch, H. (1999). Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. Analysis of Climate Variability Applications of Statistical Techniques Proceedings of an Autumn School Organized by the Commission of the European Community on Elba from October 30 to November 6, 1993 (pp. 11–26). Berlin Heidelberg, Springer: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Y., Xu, Y., Tabari, H., Wang, J., Wang, Q., Song, S., & Hu, Z. (2020). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China. Atmospheric Research, 231, 104673.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Z., Xie, P., Lai, C., Chen, X., Wu, X., Zeng, Z., & Li, J. (2017). Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and contributing climatic factors in China during 1961–2013. Journal of Hydrology, 544, 97–108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, H., Adler, R. F., Hong, Y., Tian, Y., & Policelli, F. (2012). Evaluation of global flood detection using satellite-based rainfall and a hydrologic model. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13(4), 1268–1284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, H., & Qian, H. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s. International Journal of Climatology, 37(5), 2582–2592.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yarar, A. (2010). Modeling of precipitation-stream flow data of susurluk basın (Doctoral dissertation, PhD Thesis. Institute of Natural and Applied Sciences, Selcuk University).

  • Yilmaz, B. (2019). Analysis of hydrological drought trends in the gap region (southeastern Turkey) by Mann-Kendall test and innovative sen method. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 17(2), 3325–3342.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for the 2211-A Domestic Doctoral Scholarship Program and the Council of Higher Education for the 100/2000 Doctoral Scholarship Project for the scholarship they provided to the first author.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Bursa Uludağ University, 16059, Bursa, Turkey

    Fatma Akçay & Murat Kankal

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Gümüşhane University, 29100, Gümüşhane, Turkey

    Murat Şan

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa University, 60150, Tokat, Turkey

    Sinan Nacar

Authors
  1. Fatma Akçay
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Murat Şan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Sinan Nacar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Murat Kankal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Conceptualization, FA, MŞ and MK. Investigation, FA and MŞ, Methodology, FA and MŞ. Supervision, MK and SN. Visualization, FA, MŞ, and SN. Writing original draft preparation, FA, MŞ, and SN. Writing review and editing, MK and SN.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Murat Kankal.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

Not applicable.

Consent to Participate

Not applicable.

Consent to Publish

Not applicable.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 97 KB)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Akçay, F., Şan, M., Nacar, S. et al. Annual Trends of Precipitation and Temperature in the Northwestern Part of Turkey Using Innovative Approaches: A Holistic and Partial Study. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 3131–3156 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03319-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03319-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation