Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China’s political influence in international affairs, as mediated by Chinese economic integration with the BRI countries. We propose that the BRI plays a role in influencing partner countries to support China's presence in the international community, and the economic integration of the BRI positively mediates the willingness of partner countries to align with China in international affairs. This paper uses panel data from 147 BRI countries collected between 2009 and 2020, and the difference-in-differences method, to estimate the political influence of the BRI. The results suggest that the BRI motivates partner countries to support the growth of China's influence in international affairs. The results of the causal mechanism analysis indicate that a significant and positive association between the implementation of the BRI and China’s influence is mediated by promoting Chinese contracts, trade overseas, and outward FDI. The examinations of heterogeneity demonstrate that BRI countries that are developing, non-landlocked, non-neighboring, having signed the memorandum of understanding or cooperation memorandum of understanding, or lacking a Chinese investment guide are more likely to support China’s political presence. This paper concludes with insights into how China implements the BRI to enhance its political ascent in the global order by facilitating economic integration of the BRI.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Yanzhen Wang, upon reasonable request.
Notes
We thank an anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
We thank an anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
We thank an anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
We thank an anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
We thank an anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
References
Abdelal, R., and J. Kirshner. 1999. Strategy, economic relations, and the definition of national interests. Security Studies 9 (1–2): 119–156.
An, J., and Y. Feng. 2022. Do the “Dragon’s Gifts” Improve China’s National Image? An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Relations and Public Perceptions of China in Africa. Journal of Chinese Political Science. 27: 747–770.
Bailey, M.A., A. Strezhnev, and E. Voeten. 2017. Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (2): 430–456.
Beeson, M. 2018. Geoeconomics with Chinese characteristics: The BRI and China’s evolving grand strategy. Economic and Political Studies 6 (3): 240–256.
Beeson, M., and C. Crawford. 2023. Putting the BRI in Perspective: History, Hegemony and Geoeconomics. Chinese Political Science Review. 8: 45–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00210-y.
Blanchard, J.M.F. 2021. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Blues: Powering BRI Research Back on Track to Avoid Choppy Seas. Journal of Chinese Political Science 26: 235–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09717-0.
Cai, K.G. 2023. China’s Initiatives: A Bypassing Strategy for the Reform of Global Economic Governance. Chinese Political Science Review. 8: 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00215-7.
Chiyemura, F., E. Gambino, and T. Zajontz. 2023. Infrastructure and the Politics of African State Agency: Shaping the Belt and Road Initiative in East Africa. Chinese Political Science Review. 8: 105–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00214-8.
De Soyres, F. Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N., and Ruta, M. 2020. How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? International Finance Discussion Paper 2020:(1274).
Du, M. 2021. Cross-Border M&A Performance of Chinese Enterprises in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese Political Science Review. 6: 228–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-020-00173-y.
Ferdinand, P. 2016. Westward ho-the China dream and “one belt, one road”: Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. International Affairs 92 (4): 941–957.
Flint, C., and Zhu, C. 2019. The geopolitics of connectivity, cooperation, and hegemonic competition: The Belt and Road Initiative. Geoforum 99:(95–101).
Gong, X. 2019. The Belt & Road Initiative and China’s influence in Southeast Asia. Pacific Review 32 (4): 635–665.
Gupta, N., and Yu, X. 2007. Does Money Follow the Flag? at SSRN 1316364.
Gyamerah, S., Z. He, E.E.D. Gyamerah, et al. 2022. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa: A Firm-Level Study of Sub-Saharan African SMEs. Journal of Chinese Political Science 27: 719–745. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-021-09749-0.
He, B. 2019. The domestic politics of the belt and road initiative and its implications. Journal of Contemporary China 28 (116): 180–195.
Herrero, A. G., and Xu, J. 2017. China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains? In China & World Economy 25(6).
Huang, Y. 2016. Understanding China’s Belt & Road Initiative: Motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review 40: 314–321.
Jones, L. 2020. Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Challenge the Liberal, Rules-Based Order? Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences. 13: 113–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-019-00252-8.
Kaczmarski, M. 2017. Two Ways of Influence-building: The Eurasian Economic Union and the One Belt, One Road Initiative. Europe - Asia Studies 69 (7): 1027–1046.
Kahler, M., and S.L. Kastner. 2006. Strategic uses of economic interdependence: Engagement policies on the Korean Peninsula and across the Taiwan strait. Journal of Peace Research 43 (5): 523–541.
Kastner, S.L. 2016. Buying Influence? Assessing the Political Effects of China’s International Trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution 60 (6): 980–1007.
Kaya, A., C. Kilby, and J. Kay. 2021. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as an instrument for Chinese influence? Supplementary versus remedial multilateralism. World Development 145: 105531.
Li, J., K.E. Meyer, H. Zhang, and Y. Ding. 2018. Diplomatic and corporate networks: Bridges to foreign locations. Journal of International Business Studies 49 (6): 659–683.
Li, J., A. Van Assche, L. Li, and G. Qian. 2022. The Belt and Road Initiative and international business policy: A kaleidoscopic perspective. Journal of International Business Policy 5 (2): 135–151.
Li, J., Van Assche. Li, L. and Qian, G. 2021. Foreign direct investment along the Belt and Road A political economy perspective. Journal of International Business Studies.
Liu, Y., and J. Mao. 2019. How do tax incentives affect investment and productivity? Firm-level evidence from China. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 11 (3): 261–291.
Liu, L., and T. Song. 2021. The Determinants of States’ Interactions with China in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Spatial Gravity Interaction. Pacific Focus 36 (3): 460–487.
Liu, L., Wang, Y., and Xu, Y. 2021. A practical guide to counterfactual estimators for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.00856. Accessed 12 Jan 2023.
Lu, Y., W. Gu, and K. Zeng. 2021. Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Bilateral Political Relations? China & World Economy 29 (5): 57–83.
Ma, H., and Y. Teng. 2018. How political incentives affect Chinese outward foreign direct investment: A UN Security Council membership perspective. The World Economy 41 (12): 3416–3441.
Najafi, A., and H. Askari. 2012. The Impact of Political Relations Between Countries on Economic Relations. PSL Quarterly Review 65 (262): 247–273.
Ploberger, C. 2017. One Belt, One Road–China’s new grand strategy. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 15 (3): 289–305.
Pradhan, R. 2018. The Rise of China in Central Asia: The New Silk Road Diplomacy. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences. 11: 9–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-017-0210-y.
Pradhan, R., and S.S. Mohanty. 2021. Chinese Grand Strategies in Central Asia: The Role of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Belt and Road Initiative. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences. 14: 197–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-021-00318-6.
Preacher, K.J., D.D. Rucker, and A.F. Hayes. 2007. Addressing moderated mediation hypotheses: Theory, methods, and prescriptions. Multivariate behavioral research 42 (1): 185–227.
Rolland, N. 2017. China’s “belt and road initiative”: Underwhelming or game-changer? Washington Quarterly 40 (1): 127–142.
Shah, A.R. 2023. Revisiting China Threat: The US’ Securitization of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative.’ Chinese Political Science Review. 8: 84–104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-021-00179-0.
Sobel, M.E. 1982. Asymptotic confidence intervals for indirect effects in structural equation models. Sociological methodology 13: 290–312.
Strüver, G. 2016. What friends are made of: Bilateral linkages and domestic drivers of foreign policy alignment with China1. Foreign Policy Analysis 12 (2): 170–191.
Stone, R.W., Y. Wang, and S. Yu. 2022. Chinese power and the state-owned enterprise. International Organization 76 (1): 229–250.
Vines, D. 2018. The BRI and RCEP: Ensuring cooperation in the liberalisation of trade in Asia. Economic and Political Studies 6 (3): 338–348.
Voon, J.P., C. Chien-peng, and C. Sze Nam. 2021. Political-Economic Suboptimization of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies 38 (2): 244–262.
Voon, J.P., and X. Xu. 2020. Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s soft power: Preliminary evidence. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics 27 (1): 120–131.
Wang, J., and Tian, X. 2022. Impacts of the belt and road initiative on China’s bilateral trade. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy.
Wang, Y., and X. Liu. 2019. Is the belt and road initiative a Chinese geo-political strategy? Asian Affairs 50 (2): 260–267.
Warntjen, A. 2016. United Nations General Assembly resolutions, 1946–2014. Harvard Dataverse, V2. Retrieved from Harvard Dataverse website: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/7UBUUI. Accessed 12 Jan 2023.
Yang, G., X. Huang, J. Huang, and H. Chen. 2020. Assessment of the effects of infrastructure investment under the belt and road initiative. China Economic Review 60 (2020): 101418.
Yang, G., T. Tang, B. Wang, and Z. Qi. 2022. Money talks?: An analysis of the international political effect of the Chinese overseas investment boom. Review of International Political Economy 29 (1): 202–226.
Yu, H. 2017. Motivation behind China’s ‘one belt, one road’ initiatives and establishment of the Asian infrastructure investment bank. Journal of Contemporary China 26 (105): 353–368.
Zeng, Y. 2021. Does Money Buy Friends? Evidence from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Journal of East Asian Studies 21 (1): 75–95.
Zhang, E., and P. James. 2023. All Roads Lead to Beijing: Systemism, Power Transition Theory and the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese Political Science Review. 8: 18–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00211-x.
Wu, C.C.H. 2023. The Maritime Silk Road Initiative and Its Implications for China’s Regional Policy. Chinese Political Science Review. 8: 63–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00209-5.
Funding
This work was supported by the Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant < 22YJC790135 > and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant < 2021M691253 > .
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest Statement
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
An, J., Wang, Y. The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Chinese International Political Influence: An Empirical Study Using a Difference-in-Differences Approach. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09860-4
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09860-4