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Links among population aging, economic globalization, per capita CO2 emission, and economic growth, evidence from East Asian countries

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Abstract

Population aging, economic globalization, and economic growth simultaneously cause changes in environmental quality, but so far no studies have integrated these key factors into the same environmental policy framework. Thus, this study uses the more robust Westerlund cointegration test and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator (robust to cross-sectional dependence (CD), heterogeneity, and endogeneity) to estimate the long-term relationship between population aging, economic globalization, economic growth, and per capita carbon emissions in East Asian countries during the period 1975–2018. The analysis results reflect that population aging significantly reduces the long-term per capita carbon emissions of specific East Asian countries. However, energy generation and economic globalization make significant contributions to long-run per capita carbon emissions. Moreover, the impact of economic growth on long-term per capita carbon emissions is significantly positive, while the impact of square of economic growth on long-run per capita carbon emissions is significantly negative, thus validating the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for specific East Asian countries. The results of the causality test indicated a two-way causality between energy generation and per capita carbon dioxide emission, supporting the feedback hypothesis. There is also a two-way causal relationship between aging population and per capita carbon dioxide emission. Policy recommendations are discussed in response to the empirical findings of this study.

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Data availability 

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in World Development Indicator page published by World Bank (2020), at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world548 development-indicators. Economic globalization data can be obtained from KOF Swiss Economic institute (2022), at https://www.statista.com/statistics/268168/globalization-index-by-country/#:~:text=Globalization%20Index%20%2D%20top%2050%20countries%202022&text=In%20the%202022%20edition%20of,behind%2C%20with%20Belgium%20in%20third.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Qingdao Innovation and Development Center of Harbin Engineering University, Qingdao, 266000, Shandong, China

    Xiaojun Sun

  2. Institute of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China

    Arshad Ali

  3. School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China

    Yuejun Liu

  4. Finance Department, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

    Taiming Zhang

  5. Business School, Zhengzhou University of Industrial Technology, Zhengzhou, China

    Yuanchun Chen

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  1. Xiaojun Sun
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Contributions

A.A. (Ali), X.S. (Sun), and Y.L. (Liu) contributed to the conceptualization of the study, analysis, design, and conclusions; reviewed the manuscript; and approved the final submission. T.Z. (Zhang) and Y.C. (Chen) conceptualized the study, review, software data curation, editing, and literature search.

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Correspondence to Yuanchun Chen.

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Table 9

Table 9 Description and measurement of variables and data sources
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Sun, ., Ali, A., Liu, Y. et al. Links among population aging, economic globalization, per capita CO2 emission, and economic growth, evidence from East Asian countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 92107–92122 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28723-2

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