Abstract
China is experiencing rapid population aging and environmental pollution problems. There is a strong body of evidence supporting the notion that population aging may increase energy demand and aggravate related emissions. In this paper, we construct an extended KAYA model with aging variables. Drawing on panel data of 82 cities in China from 2014 to 2017, we aim to investigate whether population aging affects air pollution. Our estimates show that population aging has a significant negative impact on air quality, whereby a 1% change in the proportion of the resident population aged 65 years or above is associated with a 0.121% change in Air Quality Index in the same direction. The implication is that the increase in population aging aggravates air pollution in China in our study periods. By introducing a mediation effect, we further analyze the possible pathways of population aging with regard to air quality. The results show that population aging aggravates air pollution by increasing fossil fuel consumption and increasing the consumption of medical products. Promoting the development of energy-efficient products and services related to elderly people’s consumption may be necessary to mitigate the environmental impact of population aging in China.
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Notes
The pollutants involved in the evaluation are PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO. The ambient air quality is up to the standard if the concentration of the six pollutants reaches the standard. PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2 were evaluated according to the annual average concentration, while O3 and CO were evaluated according to the percentile concentration.
The correlation matrix shows that there is no multicollinearity among independent variables.
The AQI data in 2013 is missing; in order to ensure the continuity of data, the actual sample ranges from 2014 to 2017.
AQI was calculated according to the publication standard in Environmental Air Quality Index (AQI) Technical Regulation (Trial) (HJ633-2012). A total of 367 cities were monitored in total, due to the absence of statistical data; 82 cities were finally available.
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We received financial support provided by the China Natural Science Funding (grant number 71673134, 72074111).
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Donglan Zha: Conceptualization, funding acquisition, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing.
Pan Liu: Conceptualization, writing—original draft.
Hui Shi: Conceptualization, writing—original draft.
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Zha, D., Liu, P. & Shi, H. Does population aging aggravate air pollution in China?. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 27, 15 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09993-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09993-y