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Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan

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Abstract

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop’s yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha−1) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

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Acknowledgements

The first author is grateful to the worthy reviewers for the productive suggestions to improve the manuscript. Furthermore, the corresponding author is thankful to Higher Education Commission of Pakistan for funding of research project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agronomy, University College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, The Islamia University, Bahawalpur, Pakistan

    Muhammad Awais, Muhammad Aown Sammar Raza & Muhammad Usman Bashir

  2. Agro-Climatology Laboratory, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    Muhammad Awais, Aftab Wajid, Muhammad Farrukh Saleem, Ashfaq Ahmad, Umer Saeed, Muhammad Naveed Arshad & Jamshad Hussain

  3. College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

    Aftab Wajid

  4. Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Vehari, 61100, Pakistan

    Wajid Nasim, Muhammad Mubeen & Hafiz Mohkum Hammad

  5. CIHEAM—Institute Agronomique Mediterraneen de Montpellier (IAMM), 34090, Montpellier, France

    Wajid Nasim

  6. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystem, National Research Flagship, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia

    Wajid Nasim

  7. Climate Change, U.S.-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Agriculture and Food Security, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    Ashfaq Ahmad

  8. Department of Agronomy, Muhammad Nawaz Sharif University of Agriculture, Multan, Pakistan

    Muhammad Habib ur Rahman

  9. John Muir Institute of Environment, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

    Muhammad Naveed Arshad

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  1. Muhammad Awais
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Awais, M., Wajid, A., Saleem, M.F. et al. Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25, 13719–13730 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1587-0

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