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Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009

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Abstract

Climate change in the last three decades could have major impacts on crop phenological development and subsequently on crop productivity. In this study, trends in winter wheat phenology are investigated in 36 agro-meteorological stations in the North China Plain (NCP) for the period 1981–2009. The study shows that the dates of sowing (BBCH 00), emergence (BBCH 10) and dormancy (start of dormancy) are delayed on the average by 1.5, 1.7 and 1.5 days/decade, respectively. On the contrary, the dates of greenup (end of dormancy), anthesis (BBCH 61) and maturity (BBCH 89) occur early on the average by 1.1, 2.7 and 1.4 days/decade, respectively. In most of the investigated stations, GP2 (dormancy to greenup), GP3 (greenup to anthesis) and GP0 (entire period from emergence to maturity) of winter wheat shortened during the period 1981–2009. Due, however, to early anthesis, grain-filling stage occurs at lower temperatures than before. This, along with shifts in cultivars, slightly prolongs GP4 (anthesis to maturity). Comparison of field-observed CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model-simulated dates of anthesis and maturity suggests that climate warming is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology in the NCP. The findings of this study further suggest that climate change impact studies should be strengthened to adequately account for the complex responses and adaptations of field crops to this global phenomenon.

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Notes

  1. (BBCH: Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt, Chemische Industrie (Federal Biological Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Office of Plant Varieties, Chemical Industry). This code is recommended for phenological observations, Strauß et al. (1994).)

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Acknowledgments

This study is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Project Number 41071030 and 41001057), the science and technology strategic pilot projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Project Number XDA05090308) and the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science (Project Number 2010CB950902), China. Prof. Fulu Tao acknowledges the support of the ‘Hundred Talents’ Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for the insightful comments and suggestions on the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Dengpan Xiao, Fulu Tao, Yujie Liu, Wenjiao Shi, Meng Wang, Fengshan Liu, Shuai Zhang & Zhu Zhu

  2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Dengpan Xiao, Meng Wang, Fengshan Liu & Shuai Zhang

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  1. Dengpan Xiao
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  2. Fulu Tao
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  3. Yujie Liu
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  4. Wenjiao Shi
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Correspondence to Fulu Tao.

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Xiao, D., Tao, F., Liu, Y. et al. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009. Int J Biometeorol 57, 275–285 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0552-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0552-8

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