Abstract
Though most extant research suggests that educational expectations are adopted early in life and stabilize by adolescence, recent research has begun to challenge this assumption. This study further examines whether and to what degree adolescents’ educational expectations adapt in response to two mechanisms: interpersonal influence and self-reflection. Because educational expectations correlate with gender disparities in academic achievement, this study also examines whether this developmental trajectory varies between boys and girls. Results from a series of path models indicate that educational expectations do adapt, but any meaningful adaptation requires unrealistically large changes in academic performance. Additionally, results show that boys adapt their educational expectations in response to their academic performance more so than girls. These results are discussed in light of current policy efforts that seek to increase educational attainment through adolescents’ educational expectations.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander, K., Bozick, R., & Entwisle, D. (2008). Warming up, cooling out, or holding steady? Persistence and change in educational expectations after high school. Sociology of Education, 81(4), 371–396.
Allison, P. D. (2001). Missing data. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications Inc.
Andres, L., Adamuti-Trache, M., Yoon, E.-S., Pidgeon, M., & Thomsen, J. P. (2007). Educational expectations, parental social class, gender, and postsecondary attainment: A 10-year perspective. Youth & Society, 39(2), 135–163.
Andrew, M., & Hauser, R. M. (2011). Adoption? Adaptation? Evaluating the formation of educational expectations. Social Forces, 90(2), 497–520.
Beal, S. J., & Crockett, L. J. (2010). Adolescents’ occupational and educational aspirations and expectations: Links to high school activities and adult educational attainment. Developmental Psychology, 46(1), 258–265.
Bollen, K. (1989). Structural equations with latent variables. New York: Wiley.
Bollen, K. A., Tueller, S. J., & Oberski, D. (2013). Issues in the structural equation modeling of complex survey data. In Proceedings of the 59th World Statistics Congress 2013, Hong Kong.
Bourdieu, P. (1984). Distinction: A social critique of the judgment of taste (R. Nice, Trans.). New York: Routledge.
Bozick, R., Alexander, K., Entwisle, D., Dauber, S., & Kerr, K. (2010). Framing the future: Revisiting the place of educational expectations in status attainment. Social Forces, 88(5), 2027–2052.
Buchmann, C., & Dalton, B. (2002). Interpersonal influences and educational aspirations in 12 countries: The importance of institutional context. Sociology of Education, 75(2), 99–122. doi:10.2307/3090287.
Buchmann, C., DiPrete, T. A., & McDaniel, A. (2008). Gender inequalities in education. Annual Review of Sociology. doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.34.040507.134719.
Carolan, B. V., & Wasserman, S. J. (2015). Does parenting style matter? concerted cultivation, educational expectations, and the transmission of educational advantage. Sociological Perspectives, 58(2), 168–186.
Crosnoe, R., & Johnson, M. K. (2011). Research on adolescence in the twenty-first century. Annual Review of Sociology, 37(1), 439–460. doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-081309-150008.
Domina, T., Conley, A., & Farkas, G. (2011a). The link between educational expectations and effort in the college-for-all era. Sociology of Education, 84(2), 93–112. doi:10.1177/1941406411401808.
Domina, T., Conley, A., & Farkas, G. (2011b). The case for dreaming big. Sociology of Education, 84(2), 118–121. doi:10.1177/0038040711401810.
Eccles, J. S., & Wigfield, A. (2002). Motivational beliefs, values, and goals. Annual Review of Psychology, 53(1), 109–132. doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135153.
Eccles, J. S., Wigfield, A., & Schiefele, U. (1998). Motivation to succeed. In W. Damon & N. Eisenberg (Eds.), Handbook of child psychology (5th ed., Vol. III, pp. 1017–1095). New York: Wiley.
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. (1988). Decision-making under ambiguity. In B. R. Munier (Ed.), Risk, decision, and rationality, theory and decision library B (Vol. 9, pp. 327–336). Dordrecht: Springer.
Elster, J. (1979). Ulysses and the sirens: Studies in rationality and irrationality. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Farr, J. L. (1973). Response requirements and primacy-recency effects in a simulated selection interview. Journal of Applied Psychology, 57(3), 228–232. doi:10.1037/h0034708.
Festinger, L. (1954). A theory of social comparison processes. Human Relations, 7(2), 117–140.
Flouri, E., & Hawkes, D. (2008). Ambitious mothers—successful daughters: Mothers’ early expectations for children’s education and children’s earnings and sense of control in adult life. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 78(3), 411–433. doi:10.1348/000709907X251280.
Frome, P. M., & Eccles, J. S. (1998). Parents’ influence on children’s achievement-related perceptions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74(2), 435–452. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.74.2.435.
Galotti, K. M. (2002). Making decisions that matter: How people face important life choices. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Gambetta, D. (1987). Were they pushed or did they jump? Individual decision mechanisms in education. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gottfredson, L. S. (1981). Circumscription and compromise: A developmental theory of occupational aspirations. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 28(6), 545–579. doi:10.1037/0022-0167.28.6.545.
Gottfredson, L. S., & Lapan, R. T. (1997). Assessing gender-based circumscription of occupational aspirations. Journal of Career Assessment, 5(4), 419–441.
Haller, A. O. (1982). Reflections on the social psychology of status attainment. In R. M. Hauser, A. O. Haller, & T. S. Hauser (Eds.), Social structure and behavior: Essays in honor of William Hamilton Sewell (pp. 3–28). New York: Academic Press.
Haller, A. O., & Portes, A. (1973). Status attainment processes. Sociology of Education, 46(1), 51–91.
Hart, A. J. (1995). Naturally occurring expectation effects. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(1), 109–115. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.68.1.109.
Hauser, R. M., & Featherman, D. L. (1977). The process of stratification: Trends and analyses. New York: Academic Press.
Hauser, R. M., Tsai, S.-L., & Sewell, W. H. (1983). A model of stratification with response error in social and psychological variables. Sociology of Education, 56(1), 20–46.
Hogarth, R. M., & Einhorn, H. J. (1992). Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology, 24(1), 1–55. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(92)90002-J.
Ingels, S. J., Pratt, D. J., Herget, D. R., Bryan, M., Fritch, L. B., Ottem, R., et al. (2015). High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) 2013 Update and High School Transcript Data File Documentation. Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Jacob, B. A., & Wilder, T. (2010). Educational expectations and attainment. NBER working paper no. 15683. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economics Research.
Jencks, C., Crouse, J., & Mueser, P. (1983). The Wisconsin model of status attainment: A national replication with improved measures of ability and aspiration. Sociology of Education, 56(1), 3–19.
Kao, G., & Thompson, J. S. (2003). Racial and ethnic stratification in educational achievement and attainment. Annual Review of Sociology, 29(1), 417–442. doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.29.010202.100019.
Kao, G., & Tienda, M. (1998). Educational aspirations of minority youth. American Journal of Education, 106(3), 349–384.
Kroger, J. (2006). Identity development during adolescence. In G. R. Adams & M. D. Berzonsky (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of adolescence (pp. 205–226). Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Lee, D., Seo, H., & Jung, M. W. (2012). Neural basis of reinforcement learning and decision making. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 35(1), 287–308. doi:10.1146/annurev-neuro-062111-150512.
Lent, R. W., Brown, S. D., & Hackett, G. (2000). Contextual supports and barriers to career choice: A social cognitive analysis. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 47(1), 36–49. doi:10.1037/0022-0167.47.1.36.
Li, S. D. (2011). Testing mediation using multiple regression and structural equation modeling analyses in secondary data. Evaluation Review, 35(3), 240–268. doi:10.1177/0193841x11412069.
Little, R. J. A., & Rubin, D. B. (1987). Statistical analysis with missing data. New York: Wiley.
Lumley, T. (2008). Balanced repeated replication (BRR). In P. J. Lavrakas (Ed.), Encyclopedia of survey research methods (pp. 49–50). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications Inc.
Manski, C. F. (2004). Measuring expectations. Econometrica, 72(5), 1329–1376. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00537.x.
Marini, M. M., & Greenberger, E. (1978). Sex differences in educational aspirations and expectations. American Educational Research Journal, 15(1), 67–79. doi:10.2307/1162688.
McCarthy, P. J. (1966). Replication: An approach to the analysis of data from complex surveys, vital and health statistics. (PHS Publication No. 1000, Series 2, No. 14). Washington DC: US Department of Health Education and Welfare, National Centre for Health Statistics.
McWhirter, E. H. (1997). Perceived barriers to education and career: ethnic and gender differences. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 50(1), 124–140. doi:10.1006/jvbe.1995.1536.
Mello, Z. R. (2008). Gender variation in developmental trajectories of educational and occupational expectations and attainment from adolescence to adulthood. Developmental Psychology, 44(4), 1069–1080. doi:10.1037/0012-1649.44.4.1069.
Merton, R. K. (1968). Social theory and social structure. New York: Free Press.
Møllegaard, S., & Jæger, M. M. (2015). The effect of grandparents’ economic, cultural, and social capital on grandchildren’s educational success. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 42, 11–19. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2015.06.004.
Morgan, S. L. (2004). Methodologist as arbitrator: Five models for black–white differences in the causal effect of expectations on attainment. Sociological Methods & Research, 33(1), 3–53.
Morgan, S. L. (2005). On the edge of commitment: Educational attainment and race in the United States. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Morgan, S. L., & Winship, C. (2007). Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Muthén, B. O., & Satorra, A. (1995). Complex sample data in structural equation modeling. Sociological Methodology, 25, 267–316. doi:10.2307/271070.
Park, S., Wells, R., & Bills, D. (2015). Changes in educational expectations between 10th and 12th grades across cohorts. Social Psychology of Education, 18(3), 561–583. doi:10.1007/s11218-015-9302-1.
Pearl, J. (1998). Graphs, causality, and structural equation models. Sociological Methods & Research, 27(2), 226–284. doi:10.1177/0049124198027002004.
Perry, D. G., & Pauletti, R. E. (2011). Gender and adolescent development. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 21(1), 61–74. doi:10.1111/j.1532-7795.2010.00715.x.
Porter, J. (1965). The vertical mosaic: An analysis of social class and power in Canada. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Reynolds, J. R., & Baird, C. L. (2010). Is there a downside to shooting for the stars? Unrealized educational expectations and symptoms of depression. American Sociological Review, 75(1), 151–172.
Reynolds, J. R., & Johnson, M. K. (2011). Change in the stratification of educational expectations and their realization. Social Forces, 90(1), 85–109.
Rosen, B. C., & Aneshensel, C. S. (1978). Sex differences in the educational-occupational expectation process. Social Forces, 57(1), 164–186. doi:10.2307/2577632.
Rosenbaum, J. (2001). Beyond college for all: Career paths for the forgotten half. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Sawyer, R. (2013). Beyond correlations: usefulness of high school GPA and test scores in making college admissions decisions. Applied Measurement in Education, 26(2), 89–112.
Schneider, B., & Stevenson, D. (1999). The ambitious generation: America’s teenagers, motivated but directionless. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Sewell, W. H., Haller, A. O., & Ohlendorf, G. W. (1970). The educational and early occupational status attainment process: Replication and revision. American Sociological Review, 35(6), 1014–1027. doi:10.2307/2093379.
Sewell, W. H., Haller, A. O., & Portes, A. (1969). The educational and early occupational attainment process. American Sociological Review, 34(1), 82–92.
Sewell, W. H., & Shah, V. P. (1967). Socioeconomic status, intelligence, and the attainment of higher education. Sociology of Education, 40(1), 1–23.
Simon, H. A. (1979). Rational decision making in business organizations. The American Economic Review, 69(4), 493–513.
Spears Brown, C., & Bigler, R. S. (2004). Children’s perceptions of gender discrimination. Developmental Psychology, 40(5), 714–726. doi:10.1037/0012-1649.40.5.714.
Staff, J., Harris, A., Sabates, R., & Briddell, L. (2010). Uncertainty in early occupational aspirations: Role exploration or aimlessness? Social Forces, 89(2), 659–683.
Stapleton, L. M. (2008). Variance estimation using replication methods in structural equation modeling with complex sample data. Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 15, 183–210.
Wang, Y., & Benner, A. D. (2014). Parent-child discrepancies in educational expectations: differential effects of actual versus perceived discrepancies. Child Development, 85(3), 891–900.
Zhang, Y., Haddad, E., Torres, B., & Chen, C. (2011). The reciprocal relationships among parents’ expectations, adolescents’ expectations, and adolescents’ achievement: a two-wave longitudinal analysis of the NELS data. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 40(4), 479–489.
Zwick, R., & Sklar, J. C. (2005). Predicting college grades and degree completion using high school grades and SAT scores: The role of student ethnicity and first language. American Educational Research Journal, 42(3), 439–464. doi:10.3102/00028312042003439.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The author declares that he has no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Carolan, B.V. Assessing the adaptation of adolescents’ educational expectations: variations by gender. Soc Psychol Educ 20, 237–257 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11218-017-9377-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11218-017-9377-y