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Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24–25 in Perspective

Invited Review

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Abstract

The dynamic activity of the Sun—sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior—modulates the electromagnetic, particulate, and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short timescale create space weather, slow long-term modulation forms the basis of space climate. Space weather impacts diverse space-reliant technologies while space climate influences planetary atmospheres and climate. Having prior knowledge of the Sun’s activity is important in these contexts. However, forecasting solar-stellar magnetic activity has remained an outstanding challenge. In this review, predictions for Sunspot Cycle 24 and the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 are summarized, and critically assessed. The analysis demonstrates that while predictions based on diverse techniques disagree across Solar Cycles 24–25, physics-based predictions for Solar Cycle 25 have converged and indicates a weak to moderate–weak sunspot cycle. I argue that this convergence in physics-based predictions is indicative of progress in the fundamental understanding of solar cycle predictability. Based on this understanding, resolutions to several outstanding questions related to solar cycle predictions are discussed; these questions include: is it possible to predict the solar cycle, what is the best proxy for predictions, how early can we predict the solar cycle and how many cycles into the future can we predict relying on our current understanding? Based on our analysis, we also suggest a rigorous pathway towards generating and disseminating a “consensus forecast” by any solar cycle prediction panels tasked with such a challenge.

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Acknowledgements

This review is dedicated to the memory of Bernard Durney who passed away in 2019 somewhere in the South of France, his last years spent in relative seclusion far away from the solar physics community. Bernard made fundamental contributions to the development of dynamo models of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton idea, including elucidating the role of meridional circulation in the near-surface evolution of the Sun’s large-scale dipolar magnetic fields. I first started corresponding with him as a PhD student from India and I am indebted to him for his generosity in sharing his knowledge and debating ideas with someone he had never met. In fact, although we corresponded for many years, I never got a chance to meet him in person. I am indebted to many of my students and collaborators who have contributed to my journey of exploring the physics of the sunspot cycle, particularly towards understanding the basis of solar cycle predictability. I am grateful to Soumyaranjan Dash and Shaonwita Pal for assistance with literature survey and preparation of some of the figures. I acknowledge utilization of data from the NASA/SDO HMI instrument maintained by the HMI team, the Royal Greenwich Observatory/USAF-NOAA active region database compiled by David H. Hathaway and MWO calibrated polar faculae data from the solar dynamo database maintained by Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo. I acknowledge utilization of the hemispheric polar field data obtained by J. Todd Hoeksema and many dedicated graduate students at Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory. The Wilcox Solar Observatory is currently supported by NASA. I acknowledge usage of the yearly mean sunspot number data from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre (SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels) and useful discussions with Frédéric Clette on the revised sunspot time series. Much of the understanding related to the solar magnetic cycle and its predictability has resulted from confronting theoretical dynamo models with these long-term solar activity databases and the continued sustenance of these databases cannot be overemphasized. This work benefited from discussions with colleagues under the aegis of the VarSITI Solar Evolution and Extrema program of SCOSTEP and the ISWAT cluster on Long-term Solar Variability under the aegis of COSPAR’s Panel on Space Weather. The Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India (CESSI) is funded by the Ministry of Education, Government of India, under the Frontier Areas of Science and Technology (FAST) scheme. Finally, I am grateful to the solar physics community of Argentina, its wonderful people and the beautiful music of tango, all a source of inspiration during my sabbatical visit to that country in connection with the 2019 total solar eclipse—during which the idea and early work for this review was initiated.

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  1. Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur, 741246, West Bengal, India

    Dibyendu Nandy

  2. Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur, 741246, West Bengal, India

    Dibyendu Nandy

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Nandy, D. Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24–25 in Perspective. Sol Phys 296, 54 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01797-2

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