Abstract
A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory. F10.7 values are courtesy of the Dominion Radio Astronomy Observatory. Adjusted F10.7 (normalized to 1 AU) were downloaded from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC, https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-radio/noontime-flux/penticton/penticton_adjusted/listings/listing_drao_noontime-flux-adjusted_daily.txt ). The polar magnetic field data are from the Wilcox Solar Observatory ( http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html ) and are courtesy of J. T. Hoeksema. The Wilcox Solar Observatory is currently supported by NASA. International Sunspot Numbers were obtained from the Solar Influences Data Center (SIDC) website, http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/dayssnv0.dat for \(R_{Z}^{V_{1}}\) and http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/SN_d_tot_V2.0.txt for \(R_{Z}^{V_{2}}\).
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Pesnell, W.D., Schatten, K.H. An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Sol Phys 293, 112 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1330-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1330-5