Immediate effects of COVID-19
Our expert respondents observed a significant effect of the COVID-19 crisis on adult education and adult learning. A core statement they made was: “The lockdown of physical co-operation touches the heart of adult education” (ID 22).Footnote 7 Most teaching or guidance activities in physical presence had to be cancelled, which led to “[d]iminished face-to-face engagement, both during courses and for scholarly communities generally” (ID 33). Almost every respondent mentioned this as the most prominent effect. Adult education itself is clearly in a crisis.
Impact on learners, teachers and adult education organisations
Disadvantaged learners were often considered as being even more strongly affected by this lack of provision than others. It was assumed that the reason for this was likely to be that they have less access to digital means of learning and to a supportive social environment of their milieu: Once expert observed that there had been a “[m]ove towards virtual forms of communication, which can be deeply exclusionary by reference to class, age and gender” (ID 42). Gender especially played an important role in some of the comments, such as “Women and carers with childcare responsibilities are additionally discriminated against” (ID 20). Surprisingly, one rare remark from Africa considered this:
“Those who come from depressed socio-economic backgrounds became part of the state-registered vulnerable population. In a sense, COVID-19 served as a social and economic equaliser […]” (ID 7).
The effects of COVID-19 differ between countries and regions, even as the world seems to be united in acknowledging that we have to deal with COVID-19 somehow.
While most comments focused clearly on the effects on learners, a number of comments expressed worry about the organisations, teachers, tutors, etc.:
-
There is an “[u]ncertainty of budgets […] strongly felt in not-for-profit agencies” (ID 2).
-
“The cost of the part-time teachers to re-do the work is not likely to be factored into the small adult education budget for 2019/20” (ID 7).
-
There is a “serious economic risk for institutions and organisations” (ID 20).
-
“Solo self-employed adult educators in many cases fall into basic social security, which does not cover their regular costs” (ID 22).
-
There is “economic damage for providers” (ID 37).
-
There are “problems with financing” (ID 54).
-
“The first effect is cancelling the vast majority of the educational events (lectures, seminars, workshops, etc.). This has serious social effects for adult educators. Many of them are freelancers” (ID 56).
Freelancers and self-employed adult educators were perceived as an especially vulnerable group. Rather surprisingly, however, adult educators with limited or project-based contracts were not mentioned by any expert as vulnerable group. Generally, the situation and development of personnel and organisations of adult education were not given the central role we had expected in the responses.
An increase in digital forms of learning
What respondents mentioned almost as frequently as this drop in educational offers and the forced closure of adult education providers was an increase in digital forms of learning (e.g. e-learning, distance learning). The rationality of providers’ decisions is described as in this quote: “Almost all face-to-face learning activities had to be organised at distance, or cancelled” (ID 38). There were a number of observations on extensive further education and training activities for adult educators for digital teaching and digital tutoring. Although the first section of the questionnaire asked about immediate effects, respondents already mentioned likely changes in the near future here: “A new training for teachers, counsellors and other practitioners in adult education and learning will be necessary” (ID 45). Overall, a clear majority of respondents (23 out of 27) rated such an increase of digitalised forms of learning as a very strong effect. Some voices even came to the conclusion or assumption that “[o]nline learning [would be] the new norm” (ID 2) or observed a “boom in the remote learning industry which the adult learning ‘space’ has moved to” (ID 42).
Informal learning
Much less frequently mentioned were forms of informal learning or even an increase in informal learning. Nonetheless, some statements related to this were also made:
-
“[A]dult learners have a chance to learn from and with their children […] The pandemic forced the families to practise the principle of learning families” (ID 7).
-
There is a “[c]urtailment of informal everyday learning from peers” (ID 21).
-
“If participation in formal and non-formal learning activities decreases due to dropping of courses and seminars, participation in intentional informal learning increases. (Just estimations, we don´t have any available data yet)” (ID 46).
-
The pandemic is “increasing the role of social networks” (ID 48).
-
There has been “a ‘silent explosion’ of informal learning (self-help, on-line) oriented to spheres of hobbies and culture” (ID 56).
While informal learning mainly within families and social networks was mentioned by several experts, workplace learning – even via digital tools – was mentioned surprisingly rarely.
Changes in the wider context of adult learning and education
Some experts also observed changes in the wider context of adult education or, again, already connected the present with the future in their statements:
-
What we are experiencing is “[a] form of cultural shock. If adult education is able to address these issues, it may provide a chance for general political and moral themes in […] adult education” (ID 20).
-
What is emerging is “[l]earning as a coping mechanism in isolation” (ID 46).
-
“Public investment will be made mainly in the types of adult education that may contribute directly to promoting the economy of the countries […]” (ID 31).
-
“The government have promised more money to fund more adult education places as unemployment rates are expected to rise due to COVID” (ID 39).
-
“The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Social Affairs do not have adult education as central priorities of their agenda” (ID 56).
-
There is a “[s]hift of the focus of [adult education] content to the health area (viruses, epidemiology, hygiene, immunity, vaccination)” (ID 35).
-
There is a “dramatic decrease in critical thinking [due to] the flood of fake news, conspiracy theories, strange behaviours based on non-reflected emotions, etc.” (ID 35).
-
“People are more interested in scientific findings and learn intentionally more than before through diverse media channels” (ID 46).
A number of experts also voiced their expectation of austerity cutsFootnote 8 by governments in the future. However, one respondent expected or even already referred to their government’s public statement announcing future increases in spending for the training of unemployed citizens. By contrast, other governments do seem to have adult education on their agenda.
Expected effects of COVID-19
In the second part of our questionnaire, we asked the experts about their expectations of the future effects of the COVID-19 crisis on adult education.
A further increase of digital learning
A clear majority of experts (22 respondents) expected a further increase towards digital learning:
-
“AE [adult education] in companies and large training institutions will continuously shift towards virtual distance teaching” (ID 22).
-
A future effect is “[p]robably more telework and virtual learning, because the pandemic crisis proved that other forms of performing professional roles are possible” (ID 31).
-
We are likely to see an “[i]ncreased reliance on online educational platforms and contexts” (ID 33).
-
We are likely to see an “[i]ncrease in the use of digital tools, and moving learning to the online world, leaving many people behind, especially vulnerable and marginalised groups” (ID 35).
-
What is likely in the future is that “[t]here will be more online and distance solutions” (ID 38).
-
We are likely to see “[m]ore distance learning as COVID forces all teachers to learn how to teach in distance mode” (ID 39).
-
“Providers will offer more digital formats in the future” (ID 46).
-
“I am afraid that we will have a flood of online courses and pressure on people to learn online by themselves” (ID 54).
-
We are likely to see a “[d]ecrease in a general tendency to be social (and take part in face-to-face educational activities) and it may lead to more alienated training” (ID 56).
With regard to the future, the most frequent assumption seems to be that the COVID-19 crisis is a juncture, introducing major changes or accelerating a general shift towards digital learning. This (new) trend is expected to continue. One respondent expressed the fear that “the main actors are becoming more powerful (Harvard University) and it may lead to an alienated education” (ID 22). Only surprisingly few voices expected a new valorisation of face-to-face learning:
“The importance of face-to-face learning situations (for socialisations, group processes) is realised ‘in a new way’, and it will be valued more, but also thought in more detail” (ID 38).
By contrast, the overwhelming majority of experts did not talk about or did not explicitly mention such a renaissance of or return towards classical forms of adult education with personal encounters in their expectations for the future.
Changes in funding priorities
In addition to the switch to online learning, the experts are expecting changes in funding priorities, and increasing demand, especially in the area of health education:
-
There is likely to be an “[i]ncrease in importance for the topics digital and healthy [sic] literacy (in research and practice)” (ID 14).
-
“Moving funds to health education and research” (ID 35) is likely.
-
We are likely to see an “[i]ncreasing educational demand for subjects dealing with health education, scientific literacy and crisis awareness” (ID 46).
Only individual respondents mentioned that adult education must do more to promote democracy and human rights, since we have seen how fragile they are (ID 54).
A number of experts expected dire straits for adult education in relation to financing:
-
“Uncertainty of resourcing” (ID 2).
-
“Less money for education” (ID 16).
-
“Less public investment in adult education” (ID 31).
-
“Cuts in funding, as government priorities are to housing and food” (ID 34).
-
“Cut in funding for various areas of adult education and moving funds to the health education (incl. hygiene), health research, etc.” (ID 35).
-
“Publicly provided adult education [is likely] to suffer further as recession bites, and austerity takes firmer hold” (ID 42).
-
“I think that financing will decrease even more, but that new self-organised groups will emerge” (ID 54).
-
“Adult educators as a group are at risk. Future economic (and social) crises will probably cut the funds and will to invest in education” (ID 56).
These effects were expected in the future by many of our respondents. Compared with the current difficulties, the experts seem to expect even more challenges ahead, mentioning problems with financing slightly more frequently in their responses concerning the future than those concerning immediate effects. Thus, the worst impact in relation to financing adult education might even yet be to come.
Increase in inequality
Another development many experts expected in the future was increased inequality:
-
There is likely to be “[l]ess access to education for disadvantaged people” (ID 16).
-
There is likely to be a “[d]eeper gap between groups of people” (ID 21).
-
There is likely to be a “[l]oss of learning opportunities for disadvantaged people” (ID 31).
-
“Leaving disadvantaged people behind” (ID 35) is a likely development.
-
“Disadvantaged people will be more excluded from the learning possibilities” (ID 55).
Besides raising medical questions and challenges, COVID-19 also confronts us with social and political questions and challenges. The virus does not differentiate between social classes, but the way we deal with the virus and the measures we choose to implement in our attempts to curb infection rates reveals a great deal about our societies and social justice. Experts are very aware of this and they are following core ideas of adult education. Thus, a number of respondents expected an increase in inequalities in the future. This inequality was mainly framed nationally rather than internationally. Increasing differences between nations were mentioned only rarely, though their inclusion might be implicitly assumed when our respondents referred to inequalities generally.
Summary
The two sets of different survey questions focusing first on observed immediate, present effects and second on expected future effects resulted in astonishingly few differences between responses to both questions. Interestingly, one expert even refused this distinction entirely:
Another expert already provided an explanation for the problems connected to this distinction between present and future:
Many respondents even seemed to be framed by a kind of presentism (Bourne 2006) within this crisis. Presentism is a philosophical concept. It refers to approaches and perceptions which are solely focused on the present without referring to the past or to the future. It seems relevant here, since many experts found it difficult to imagine a future beyond COVID-19 and the present problems. Additionally, others might just not have been able to express it as clearly as those two experts quoted above, since the current problems are of course already substantial and manifold. Overall, then, the differences perceived between the present and future effects were not very pronounced.
The measures put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19 and the many lockdowns and shutdowns of adult education providers’ businesses have touched (and continue to affect) the “heart of adult education”. We found this to be a key quote in our survey, and it is elaborated and reinforced by this statement:
“The adult learning sector – it has been totally challenged and adult learning providers have had to see how they can change their business models, their teaching and learning practices, the way they source for and approach learners, the means with which they engage with learners, etc.“ (ID 51).
Among the responses, there were many reports and statements about the increased importance of distance learning via digital means, although several experts pointed out that this could not totally compensate for closed adult education organisations. Our respondents expect this increase to continue, even in the future. Many warned of the danger that the crisis will likely affect already disadvantaged people even more in the long term. The wider context of adult education is also changing and some experts expressed their concern that authoritarian governments will profit from the crisis and change democratic and legal structures. As observed above, COVID-19 is not only a large-scale medical crisis; it has fundamental social and political implications as well. The funding of adult education is already in danger. This not only applies to the present, but is likely to be exacerbated even more in the future according to a number of responding experts in the first wave of our Delphi study.
While many experts expect that distance learning via digital means will be of increased importance, also in the future, astonishingly, almost no respondent expected a significant renaissance for physical encounters for learning after the crisis. This is to some extent understandable, since it is likely that the crisis will last for many more months or even several years. It is also likely that, for a variety of reasons, such as anxiety, own health problems, living with people at risk, etc., people will for some time be afraid to meet face-to-face again. On the other hand, after months of quarantine and social distancing,Footnote 9 there might be a great motivation and eagerness to meet again personally.
Digital solutions introduced during the current pandemic might run into a problem after the crisis if many people become tired of distance education and the technical and social problems connected to it. Clearly – this has become obvious in recent months – while they were crucial in helping to cope with quarantine, digital means also have many pitfalls and limitations (technical, social, financial). Of course, how this pans out in the long term is also dependent on how the crisis and the measures develop over time. If periods of quarantine are introduced again, physical encounters will remain impossible in many respects. There is even the danger that people will become afraid of any physical encounters or that an increase of hypochondriac behaviour will occur. If you follow the thinking of some epidemiologists, meeting people is always dangerous and risky. But life is risky and in the end we will all die. We do not at all mean to underestimate the danger of the pandemic, we are merely pointing out that that risk competenciesFootnote 10 are also an important issue. We were astonished that many of our respondents currently see no need to build citizens’ skills for informed, critical thinking and critical reading of statistics and for comparing different life risks in order to build their own informed opinion rather than just following medical experts’ and policymakers’ recommendations. Here are two rare examples of comments which did consider the importance of these skills:
-
There is an “increase of the need for critical thinking, knowing the background […] At the same time, [there is a] dramatic decrease in critical thinking – the flood of fake news, conspiracy theories” (ID 35).
-
“I do not know if this will happen, but we need to advocate even more for adult education for democracy and human rights as we saw how fragile they are” (ID 54).
Nonetheless, many respondents expected an increased interest in health issues even in the future, while other issues (e.g. culture, arts) were rather rarely mentioned. Many experts see a serious danger of a further increase of vocationalismFootnote 11 after the crisis. In this context, COVID-19 was quite often constructed as a catalyst or a kind of magnifying glass. The catalyst idea of a sort of forced reaction discerns an acceleration of already existing tendencies like vocationalism or the digital turn.Footnote 12 Thus, most respondents also expected an increase of social inequality as a future effect. The idea of a magnifying glass is more visual in that it sees problems which already existed before COVID-19 becoming even more clearly visible during the current pandemic. Poor people die much more frequently from COVID-19 than rich people. And yet, surprisingly, very few respondents suggested that the COVID-19 crisis might lead to social change and, for example, to the introduction of a national basic income as a kind of positive outcome. Nonetheless, it might be crucially important to be aware that a crisis, in its original Greek meaning, is a decisive situation, which contains risks but also opportunities.