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Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil’s Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario

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Abstract

In recent years, extensive research has been conducted on various aspects of climate change, with particular attention given to the sea level rise (SLR) as a significant consequence of global warming. Although a general trend of positive SLR exists worldwide, regional variations in SLR rates are observed. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of SLR projected by a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 model, under a 4.5 W m\(^{-2}\) radiative forcing stabilization scenario by 2100, on coastal flooding along the Brazilian Coast. To achieve this, an ocean numerical downscaling approach was employed using multiple nested grids with the Regional Ocean Modeling System, with a specific focus on the Guanabara Bay region. Guanabara Bay is a vital water body that receives substantial water discharges from the densely populated Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area. Two experiments were conducted simulating the present (1995–2005) and future conditions (2090–2100), and the projected changes were evaluated. The results reveal a projected SLR of 0.69 m at Fiscal Island by the end of the century, anticipating potential loss of remaining mangrove areas and the expansion and persistence of coastal flooding in important tourist destinations within the Rio de Janeiro Municipality. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of SLR on coastal flooding in the Brazilian Coast, emphasizing the importance of considering regional variations in SLR rates for effective coastal management and adaptation strategies.

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Funding

This work was supported by ANP (Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis) through the Human Resources Program (PRH-ANP 02; 2010.3804-1).

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Author notes

  1. Adriano Vasconcelos, Luiz Paulo de Freitas Assad and Luiz Landau have contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Computational Methods in Engineering, LAMCE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sydiney Martins Gomes dos Santos, 179, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-859, Brazil

    Raquel Toste, Luiz Paulo de Freitas Assad & Luiz Landau

  2. Civil Engineering Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Athos da Silveira Ramos, 149, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-909, Brazil

    Raquel Toste & Luiz Landau

  3. Radar Remote Sensing Laboratory Applied to the Oil Industry, LabSaR, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sydiney Martins Gomes dos Santos, 179, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-859, Brazil

    Adriano Vasconcelos

  4. Department of Meteorology, Geosciences Institute, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Athos da Silveira Ramos, 274, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil

    Luiz Paulo de Freitas Assad

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  1. Raquel Toste
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception. Data preparation, numerical experiments and analysis were performed by Raquel Toste. Geoprocessing data was prepared by Adriano Vasconcelos and Raquel Toste. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Raquel Toste and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Toste, R., Vasconcelos, A., Assad, L.P.d.F. et al. Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil’s Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06556-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06556-7

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