Abstract
The horizontal seismic responses in cold regions have not received adequate attentions. In seismic design for frozen ground, computations for unfrozen ground are generally adopted directly. This study uses the Monte Carlo method to verify the applicability of traditional seismic computations in cold regions. Xidatan valley, Kekexili mountain, Chumaerhe plain, and Beiluhe basin along the Qinghai–Tibet railway are selected as the study regions; a series of random soil profiles are generated. Equivalent linear analysis results show that the current Chinese code provides mismatched spectral site amplification estimations at rare seismic intensity level. These estimations can practically be updated by increasing the current seismic motion parameters along the Qinghai–Tibet railway or by amplifying the existing design spectrum with a coefficient. The melting of permafrost layer would increase spectral peak; 70% of the original thickness would result in spectral peak amplification of 120%. Ground temperature model and permafrost dynamic nonlinear performance should be further explored.
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Availability of data and materials
The datasets used or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Code Availability
Software (deepsoil.exe) used in analysis could be downloaded in http://deepsoil.cee.illinois.edu/, after registration.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by a China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (2018M632865), the Foundation of Guilin University of Technology (GUTQDJJ2019043), and the fund provided by Guangxi Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (19-Y-21-5). The earthquake information and records are provided by Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration (csmnc@iem.ac.cn), USGS earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), PEER Strong Ground Motion Databases (https://peer.berkeley.edu/peer-strong-ground-motion-databases), and Kik-net (https://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/kyoshin/). The authors are appreciating practical recommendations from editor and reviewers.
Funding
This research was supported by a China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (2018M632865), the Foundation of Guilin University of Technology (GUTQDJJ2019043), and the fund provided by Guangxi Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (19-Y-21-5).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection and analysis were performed by Xiaobo Yu. Computation was performed by Rui Zhang, Yushun Cheng, and Yuting Hu. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Xiaobo Yu and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Yu, X., Zhang, R., Cheng, Y. et al. Monte Carlo seismic response analysis of permafrost sites: a case study. Nat Hazards 113, 237–259 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05298-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05298-8