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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Tripura and Mizoram states

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Abstract

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in North East India is presented in this paper to evaluate the ground motion at bedrock level. Analyses were performed considering the available earthquake catalogs collected from different sources since 1731–2010 within a distance of 500 km from the political boundaries of the states. Earthquake data were declustered to remove the foreshocks and aftershocks in time and space window and then statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness. Based on seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major seismogenic zones and subsequently seismicity parameters (a and b) were calculated using Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship. Faults data were extracted from SEISAT (Seismotectonic atlas of India, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi, 2000) published by Geological Survey of India and also from satellite images. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° (approximately 5 km × 5 km), and the hazard parameters (rock level peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations) were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 500 km. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for Tripura and Mizoram states using the predictive ground motion equations given by Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) and Gupta (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30:368–377, 2010) for subduction belt. Attenuation relations were validated with the observed PGA values. Results are presented in the form of hazard curve, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra for Agartala and Aizawl city (respective capital cities of Tripura and Mizoram states). Spatial variation of PGA at bedrock level with 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been presented in the paper.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge IMD, USGS, ISC, BARC and NGRI for providing the details of earthquake events in Tripura, Mizoram and adjoining areas. Comments and valuable suggestions by Thomas Glade, Editor-in-Chief (NHAZ journal) for improving the quality of paper are greatly appreciated. The authors acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for going through the manuscript thoroughly and giving their valuable suggestions to enhance the quality of the paper.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, IISc, Bangalore, 560012, India

    Arjun Sil, T. G. Sitharam & Sreevalsa Kolathayar

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  1. Arjun Sil
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  2. T. G. Sitharam
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Correspondence to Arjun Sil.

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Sil, A., Sitharam, T.G. & Kolathayar, S. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Tripura and Mizoram states. Nat Hazards 68, 1089–1108 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0678-y

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