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Ecological niche modeling, niche overlap, and good old Rabinowitz’s rarities applied to the conservation of gymnosperms in a global biodiversity hotspot

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Abstract

Context

Biodiversity hotspots harbor 77% of endemic plant species. Patagonian Temperate Forest (PTF) is a part of a biodiversity hotspot, but over the past centuries, has been over-exploited, fragmented and replaced with exotic species plantations, lately also threatened by climate change.

Objectives

Our aim is to better understand patterns of habitat suitability and niche overlap of nine endemic gymnosperm species, key elements of the PTF, complementing traditional approaches of biodiversity conservation.

Methods

Using R packages and 3016 occurrence data, we deployed ecological niche models (ENM) in MaxEnt via kuenm, and classified species according to Rabinowitz’s types of rarity. We then overlapped their niches calculating Schoener's D index, and considered types of rarity in a spatial ecological context. Finally, we overlay high species’ suitability and protected areas and detected conservation priorities using GapAnalysis.

Results

We generated simplified ENMs for nine Patagonian gymnosperms and found that most niches overlap, and only one species displayed a unique niche. Surprisingly, we found that three species have divergent suitability of habitats across the landscape and not related with previously published geographic structure of neutral genetic variation. We showed that the rarer a species is the smaller niche volume tend to have, that six out of nine studied species have high conservation priority, and that there are conservation gaps in the PTF.

Conclusion

Our approach showed that there are unprotected suitable areas for native key species at high risk in PTF. Suggesting that integrating habitat-suitability models of multiple species, types of rarity, and niche overlap, can be a handy tool to identify potential conservation areas in global biodiversity hotspots.

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Data Availability

All data is available on-line repositories as are expressed in main manuscript.

Code availability

All software used in this study are referenced.

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Acknowledgements

Laura Salazar and Paula Mathiasen provided technical assistance on early stages of the MS. Cristian Echeverria shared his personal records for P. salignus. Emiliano Quiroga provided R scripts to test niche overlap. Marlon Cobos for technical support on kuenm analysis. Chrystian Camilo Sosa Arango for technical support on GapAnalysis. Fernando Sánchez and Sandro Boi (our husbands, whom shared our respective quarantine offices) for providing observations on early stages of the MS.

Funding

Funding PICT 2019–149; UNC B235.

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  1. INIBIOMA, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, CONICET, Quintral 1250, 8400, Bariloche, Argentina

    M. Paula Quiroga & Cintia P. Souto

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  1. M. Paula Quiroga
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PQ and CS: have the equal participation in the construction and design of the study, in writing, in development of the analyses performed, and in the interpretation results.

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Correspondence to M. Paula Quiroga.

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Supplementary Information

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10980_2022_1502_MOESM1_ESM.pdf

Supplementary file1 (PDF 3890 KB) Supplementary Information 1. a: Summary of statistically significant simplified model (S3ENM) obtained using kuenm and MaxEnt distribution models. b: Detailed kuenm model selection for each gymnosperm species from Patagonian Temperate Forest (PTF).

10980_2022_1502_MOESM2_ESM.docx

Supplementary file2 (DOCX 107 KB) Supplementary Information 2. Pearson correlation’s matrices of 19 WorldClim bioclimatic variables clipped across the M zone of each of the nine gymnosperm species from Patagonian temperate forest using NichToolBox R-script (Osorio-Olvera et al. 2020). In Bold r values for variables selected in S3ENM.

10980_2022_1502_MOESM3_ESM.pdf

Supplementary file3 (PDF 2018 KB) Supplementary Information 3. Detailed niche partition process for P. uviferum, L. fonkii and S. conspicua. Comparison of MaxEnt models, response curves, analyses of variable contribution, jackknife test of variable importance, and Pearson correlation matrix for complete distributions and putative geographic sectors.

10980_2022_1502_MOESM4_ESM.docx

Supplementary file4 (DOCX 74 KB) Supplementary Information 4. Rabinowitz’s types of rarities classification table and lineal models relating them with niche volume for nine gymnosperm species from Patagonian Temperate Forest.

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Quiroga, M.P., Souto, C.P. Ecological niche modeling, niche overlap, and good old Rabinowitz’s rarities applied to the conservation of gymnosperms in a global biodiversity hotspot. Landsc Ecol 37, 2571–2588 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-022-01502-z

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